Why is Pinarayi Vijayan unusually restrained, still not in opposition leader mode

CPM insiders prefer to call it the calm before the storm. 'Opposition leader'-designate Pinarayi Vijayan has been surprisingly silent even after the new government has sworn in and its first decisions were announced.

Two of the decisions taken at the first cabinet meeting of the V D Satheesan Ministry were clear attempts to show the former Pinarayi Ministry in a poor light. The increase in honorarium for ASHA workers, for instance, was intended as a reminder of what was widely perceived as the former LDF government's contempt for the 265-day agitation of ASHA workers. The LDF government's indifference to the ASHA strike had given it an arrogant and insensitive image. 

The second decision, a re-investigation into the attack on KSU workers by the gunman and security officials of the Chief Minister in 2023, is seen as a retaliatory move by the UDF, a direct attack on Pinarayi. The former CM has not uttered a word.

Before the swearing in, Congress veteran and former Chief Minister A K Antony made a hugely provocative statement that Kerala was fiscally impoverished and that the economy was in a far worse condition than in 2001, a time when Kerala faced its worst economic crisis.  

Pinarayi, who is reputed for his sharp and quick political responses, has till now ignored these incendiary political moves by the UDF. 

Other CPM leaders were not as mute. Former finance minister K N Balagopal lashed out at Antony for his observations on the economy and ridiculed Chief Minister Satheesan for trying to score political points with the honorarium hike for ASHA workers.

Balagopal said that he was ready to visit Antony with official records to demonstrate the sound fiscal health of Kerala. He said Antony was trying to take anticipatory bail for the imminent failure of the economy under the Congress rule. "Let him do as he pleases but he must not shift the blame for all that goes wrong under the UDF government onto the shoulders of the LDF government's ten-year rule," he said.

As for the ₹3000 honorarium hike, Balagopal said that it was a case of a "mountain giving birth to a mole". He said the agitation of ASHA workers had demanded considerably more, a monthly honorarium of ₹21,000 and retirement benefits of ₹5 lakh. "As opposition leader, Satheesan said all the demands would be met but as it turned out he offered them a mere pittance," Balagopal said.

A senior CPM leader said that there was no need to read too much into Balagopal's aggression and Pinarayi's seemingly subdued manner. "Balagopal was the finance minster and he was duty-bound to respond to careless remarks made by senior Congress leaders," he said.

If so, didn't Pinarayi have a greater obligation to defend his government as he was the Chief Minister? Shouldn't he at least have responded to the SIT investigation into his gunman's actions? "Why the hurry," the CPM source shot back. "Wait for the Assembly session to begin. He will not give Satheesan a moment of respite," he said.

Another CPM source argued that Pinarayi was just returning the courtesy the new government had extended to him. "Pinarayi was given pride of place at the swearing in. See the way the new ministers swarmed around him like he was a superstar. There should be a brief honeymoon period for any new government," the source said. 

It is said that the post-election inquisition within the CPM has also slowed down Pinarayi. "He will come into his own after the dust has settled. There are more than just murmurs of protest at various district committee meetings. He perhaps wants to be fully in control of the party before he assumes the role of the opposition leader in full earnest," Rahim C, a political commentator closely associated with the CPM said. 

Retaining control of the party is Pinarayi's immediate concern. As a first step, he just about survived the intense differences within the CPM and got himself elected as the opposition leader. 

"That was just the first hurdle," Rahim said. "The leadership has authorised the party's lower committees to discuss about the massive electoral drubbing without fear. As disapproval rages within the party, Pinarayi's next big hurdle is to convince the party rank and file that he alone is equipped to bring back the party to its former glory. Opposition leader duties can wait till Pinarayi wins this round," Rahim said.