Ukraine-Russia crisis
A woman walks past cadets of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic in in the rebel-controlled city of Donetsk, Ukraine, January 22, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko

Ukraine-Russia stand-off: Why the fear of war is looming

The Hague: In a grim backdrop to intense diplomacy aimed at preventing war between Russia and Ukraine, thousands of troops sent by Moscow to Belarus engaged in military drills. Convoys of Russian anti-aircraft missile systems rumbled along snow-covered roads as part of the manoeuvrers.

Meanwhile, more NATO forces also are on the move, heading to the alliance's eastern borders, while Britain is putting 1,000 troops on standby to respond to a possible humanitarian crisis in Eastern Europe if Russia invades neighbouring Ukraine and fighting breaks out.

Russia has concentrated more than 100,000 troops near Ukraine's border, but says it has no invasion planned. It wants guarantees from the West that NATO won't allow Ukraine and other former Soviet nations to join the Western military alliance.

Foreign policy advisers from Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine, who met in Paris last month, held another round of talks in Berlin. They reported no progress on the implementation of a 2015 peace agreement that helped end full-scale hostilities between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Here's a look at what is happening where and why:

Ukraine-Russia crisis
US military Humvees (High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle) are parked outisde the G2A Arena near the Rzeszow-Jasionka Airport, in Jasionka, Poland February 9, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Kuba Stezycki

Biden urges Americans to leave Ukraine

US President Joe Biden has repeated his warning that any Americans still in Ukraine should leave as soon as possible.

It's not like we're dealing with a terrorist organization. We're dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. It's a very different situation and things could go crazy quickly, he said in an interview with NBC News broadcast Thursday.

Asked whether there was any scenario that would prompt him to send US troops to Ukraine to rescue Americans, the president said: There's not. That's a world war when Americans and Russia start shooting at one another.

He argued that if Putin is foolish enough to go in, he's smart enough not to, in fact, do anything that would negatively impact on American citizens.

Asked whether he's ever said that to Putin, Biden said he had.

I didn't have to tell him that. I've spoken about that. He knows that, Biden said.

The State Department for weeks has advised Americans in Ukraine to leave the country.

Boris Johnson at NATO, then in Poland

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg are warning that Russia's ongoing military buildup near Ukraine poses one of the biggest threats to European security in recent memory.

This is probably the most dangerous moment, I would say in the course of the next few days, in what is the biggest security crisis that Europe has faced for decades, and we've got to get it right, Johnson told reporters at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

The British leader said he doesn't believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to take action against Ukraine. But, Johnson said, our intelligence, I'm afraid to say, remains grim.

Stoltenberg warned: The number of Russian forces is going up, the warning time for a possible attack is going down.

Ukraine-Russia crisis
A British service member unloads a shipment of Britain's security support package for Ukraine, delivered by a C17 Globemaster III aircraft of the Royal Air Force, at the Boryspil International Airport outside Kyiv, Ukraine, February 9, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko

He stressed that NATO is not a threat to Russia, but we must be prepared for the worst.

Stoltenberg said he sent a new letter to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov repeating NATO's invitation to a series of talks on improving European security.

Johnson travelled from Brussels to Warsaw for talks with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

The two leaders went to meet British soldiers stationed near Poland's capital as part of a NATO mission to augment the alliance's eastern flank. Poland borders Belarus, Ukraine and Russia's Kaliningrad region.

Putin's political goal is to break up NATO. That's why we need to stay close together," Morawiecki said.

On one side of the scales, there is freedom and European security. On the other side, there is destabilization and the things that the Kremlin is cooking up," he said.

We want to build bridges and connections with Russia, but we want to build them on the foundation of peace," the Polish prime minister said.

Ukraine-Russia crisis
Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba walk near St. Michael's Golden-Domed Cathedral after visiting the Wall of Remembrance to pay tribute to Ukrainian soldiers killed in a military conflict in the country's east, in Kyiv, Ukraine February 9, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko

Truss and Lavrov talks

British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss held talks with Lavrov in Moscow, with Truss again warning that attacking Ukraine would have massive consequences and carry severe costs.

Truss urged Russia to abandon Cold War rhetoric and choose the diplomatic route to avoid bloodshed in Ukraine.

Lavrov was in no mood to accept a lecture from the West during the first meeting in four years between Britain and Russia's top diplomats.

Ideological approaches, ultimatums and moralizing is a road to nowhere, he said.

UKRAINE-CRISIS-USA-AID
Ukrainian service members unload a shipment of military aid delivered as part of the United States of America's security assistance to Ukraine, at the Boryspil International Airport outside Kyiv, Ukraine January 25, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Gleb Garanich

Ukraine accepts Turkey's mediation offer

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu says Ukraine has accepted Ankara's offer of mediation to reduce the tensions with Russia, while Moscow has not ruled out the idea.

Our discussions with both sides are continuing with sincerity, Cavusoglu told state broadcaster TRT. The Ukrainian side wants this. The Russian side has not closed the door, but we will still have contacts with them.

Without naming any countries, Cavusoglu also criticized some Western diplomatic efforts, saying they were stoking tensions instead of easing them.

Are there tensions? Yes. Are there risks? There are. Is the situation fragile? It is. There is concern, there is the risk of a possible conflict. But to announce this, like some Western countries are doing, through megaphone diplomacy is of no benefit, Cavusoglu said.

NATO sends reinforcements and US puts troops on alert as Ukraine tensions rise
A service member of the Ukrainian armed forces walks at combat positions near the line of separation from Russian-backed rebels near Horlivka in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, January 22, 2022. Photo: Reuters/Anna Kudriavtseva/File Photo

British and US troops on the move

Britain is putting 1,000 troops on standby to respond to any humanitarian crisis in Eastern Europe sparked by a Russian invasion of Ukraine. The UK fears a large-scale incursion could cause a mass displacement of people from Ukraine to neighbouring countries.

The UK is also sending hundreds of troops to Estonia and Poland as part of a NATO show of strength.

Johnson is expected to offer to deploy more RAF jets to Southern Europe and to send Royal Navy vessels to the eastern Mediterranean.

The US also is sending vessels to European waters. The Navy did not directly tie the deployment of four destroyers to the Ukraine crisis but said they will provide additional flexibility to the US Sixth Fleet commander, whose area of responsibility includes the Mediterranean, and will operate in support of NATO allies.

The four ships are the USS Mitscher and USS Gonzalez, homeported at Norfolk, Virginia, and the USS The Sullivans and USS Donald Cook, based at Mayport, Florida.

UKRAINE-CRISIS
US army instructor from the Joint Multinational Training Group trains Ukrainian service members to operate with M141 Bunker Defeat Munition (SMAW-D) grenade launcher, supplied by the United States, at a shooting range in Lviv Region, Ukraine, in this handout picture released January 30, 2022. Photo: The Ukrainian Ground Forces/Handout via REUTERS

Denmark plans defense talks with US

Denmark said Thursday it will begin negotiations on a new defense cooperation agreement with the US that may include allowing American troops and military equipment to be stationed on Danish soil in reversal of a decades-old policy.

However, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen stressed that the move is not a response to current Russia-Ukraine tensions. She said talks on intensifying military cooperation between Copenhagen and Washington have been in the works for a long time.

An increased American commitment here in Denmark will improve the access of the United States to the European continent, Frederiksen said in comments quoted by Danish public broadcaster DR.

Danish Defense Minister Morten Boedskov told reporters that no American military bases would be established in Denmark, and he declined to comment on where US troops would be placed in the country.

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