Azerbaijan, Armenia sign US-brokered peace deal; leaders back Nobel bid for Trump

Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a US-brokered peace agreement on Friday during a meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House. The deal aims to end decades of hostilities, boost bilateral economic ties, and move the South Caucasus rivals toward full normalisation of relations.

If it holds, the agreement would be a major achievement for the Trump administration and is likely to unsettle Moscow, which considers the region within its sphere of influence.

"It's a long time – 35 years – they fought and now they're friends, and they're going to be friends for a long time," Trump said at the signing ceremony, flanked by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been at odds since the late 1980s, when Nagorno-Karabakh – a mountainous Azerbaijani region with a majority ethnic Armenian population – broke away with support from Armenia. Azerbaijan regained full control in 2023, prompting almost all of the territory’s 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee to Armenia. Under the new agreement, both countries pledged to end fighting, open diplomatic relations, and respect each other’s territorial integrity.

Both Aliyev and Pashinyan praised Trump’s role and said they would nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Strategic US role in the South Caucasus
The deal grants the US exclusive development rights to a strategic transit corridor through the South Caucasus, which the White House says will boost exports of energy and other resources.

Trump also announced separate agreements with each country to expand cooperation in energy, trade, and technology – including artificial intelligence – though details were not disclosed. Restrictions on US defence cooperation with Azerbaijan have been lifted, a move likely to concern Russia.

Wider diplomatic push
Trump has promoted himself as a global peacemaker during the early months of his second term. The White House credits him with brokering a ceasefire between Cambodia and Thailand, and securing peace deals between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and between Pakistan and India.

However, he has yet to resolve Russia’s 3½-year war in Ukraine or the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. On Friday, he confirmed he will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15 to discuss ending the Ukraine war.

Analysts weigh in
US officials said the agreement followed multiple visits to the region and could transform the South Caucasus – an energy-rich area bordering Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Iran, yet long divided by closed borders and ethnic conflict.

Brett Erickson, a sanctions expert at Loyola University Chicago School of Law, said the peace deal could help the West curb Russian sanctions evasion:

"A formal peace creates a platform for the West to engage Armenia and Azerbaijan… to shut down the evasion pipelines."

Tina Dolbaia, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, called the signing a symbolic breakthrough but raised questions about which US companies would control the transit corridor and the extent of Armenian and Azerbaijani involvement in its construction.

She said Russia would likely be irritated by its exclusion:

"Now the fact that Armenians are shaking hands with Azerbaijanis, and they are talking about US involvement in this corridor – this is huge for Russia."

Olesya Vartanyan, an independent regional expert, said the deal brought stability but warned of the region’s history of failed negotiations:

"Without proper and continued US involvement, the issue will likely get deadlocked again, increasing the chances of renewed tensions."

End of a ‘frozen conflict’
Senior US officials described the deal as the first resolution of a frozen conflict on Russia’s periphery since the Cold War, sending a powerful signal to the region.

Armenia is expected to grant the US long-term exclusive development rights over the so-called Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, a corridor that has already attracted interest from nine companies, including three from the US.

Rights group Freedom Now urged the Trump administration to use the talks to press for the release of some 375 political prisoners in Azerbaijan. Baku has rejected Western criticism of its human rights record, calling it unacceptable interference.