Bird flu and human mortality rate: Why methods like culling has failed in Kerala? Expert explains

In February 2006, the first case of bird flu was confirmed in Maharashtra. Meanwhile, in Kerala, bird flu was first reported in a flock of ducks in the countryside of Edathua, Alappuzha, in April 2014. From then up to the recent outbreak in Alappuzha, bird flu has been reported at various parts of Kerala around 11 times. More than 1.1 million ducks, chickens and pet birds were culled as a precaution. However, the disease keeps reappearing every year despite culling millions of birds. Is bird flu a dangerous disease, has it ever been reported in other countries? These are some of the common questions that arise among the public during a bird flu outbreak in Kerala.

Origin in China
The bird flu virus was first detected in ducks in China in 1996 (the coronavirus also emerged there first). In 1997, the disease was first confirmed in humans in Hong Kong. The virus was found in 18 people who worked at or were closely associated with a chicken farm. Six among them had died due to fever and breathlessness. According to the data released by the World Health Organisation, 990 humans in 25 countries have been diagnosed with bird flu symptoms from 2003, when the disease began to spread widely, up to August 2025. Four hundred seventy-five persons, among them had died, that is, 48 per cent of the patients had succumbed to the disease. 

Deaths in India
Deaths have been reported in India, too. A child died in 2021 in Haryana due to bird flu. Besides, a two-year-old child died in April 2025 in Andhra Pradesh, and another person also succumbed to bird flu in Karnataka in July 2025. In the initial stages, the virus was detected only in avians. However, gradually, the disease began to spread among wild animals and cattle as well. In 2024 – 25, bird flu was widely reported among livestock in the US. Bird flu was first reported in cattle in 2022. Scientists say bird flu could spread among humans, as the virus has already spread from birds to wild animals and cattle. 

Do they transmit to humans?
Fifty per cent of the patients will lose their lives, possibly due to respiratory illness and shortness of breath. Currently, this virus does not transmit from human to human. However, scientists are wary that millions of people will fall ill and mass deaths would occur if this virus mutates and causes human-to-human transmission. It could be transmitted among humans at any time, as the virus has already spread from birds to animals. The avians in an affected area are culled with immediate effect to reduce the risk of transmission. 

Public's questions that authorities haven't answered
The public has been raising questions about bird flu outbreaks that our authorities haven’t yet been able to answer. Some of them are: 
1. Why does the disease reappear despite culling millions of avians in the last 11 years?
2. Where is the origin of this disease? Have there been any studies regarding the origin?
3. Other than assuming that migratory birds are the carriers of this virus, has the virus actually been detected in any migratory bird (in the Kuttanad region)?

4. Have the concerned government departments provided any assistance or scientific guidelines to ensure organic safety for the farmers?
5. Why is duck farming and culling repeatedly done in the same regions where bird flu is reported every year?
6. Why can’t the government propose alternate measures and financial assistance for duck farmers?
7. Why is there no outbreak in Namakkal, Tamil Nadu, where more than seven crore chickens produce around six crore eggs daily in over 1600 chicken farms?

8. Although the government had announced to implement scientific studies in the previous years when there were reports of outbreaks, nothing has happened until now. No study reports have been published yet. Why so?
9. The duck farm in Niranam, which is a government-owned farm, was closed down when bird flu was confirmed in 2024. It was decided to reopen the farm only after taking the necessary precautions, but it hasn’t opened yet. The farm has remained closed for the past 1.5 years. However, permission is given for duck farming in the paddy fields of Kuttanad, where bird flu is reported every year. Isn’t this an instance of creating favourable circumstances for a bird flu outbreak?

10. The experience in the last decade has proved that culling is not an effective preventive method. If authorities and experts aren’t able to adopt scientific methods for prevention, then action should be taken to ban duck farming in this region permanently.
11. Instead of mere mottos urging the people to be alert and not get scared, we need proactive and science-based decisions, anticipating the worst. It must be noted that bird flu is reported only in Kerala each year, and the situation is not as difficult in other Indian states. 

It was in Kerala that Covid 19 was first reported in India. Let us hope it is not the case with bird flu.  
Dr Shahul Hameed
Assistant Director (retired)
Department of Animal Husbandry
vetshahul@gmail.com