All set for a neck-and-neck race in Chhattisgarh

Raipur: In a state which has so far been bipolar and the difference in vote shares has always been wafer-thin, Chhattisgarh is all set for a neck-and-neck race in the November assembly elections. Emergence of an X-factor - former chief minister Ajit Jogi’s new regional party Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC) forming an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Communist Party of India (CPI) - promises to make the contest tougher for both the ruling BJP and opposition Congress.

The BJP, which came to power in December, 2003, in the state’s maiden elections after Chhattisgarh was carved out of Madhya Pradesh in November, 2000, is aiming for a fourth consecutive win under the leadership of Chief Minister Raman Singh. Being in the opposition for the last 15 years, it’s a do-or-die battle for the Congress as the grand old party is taking cautious steps to keep its leaders united. Besides, the JCC-BSP-CPI alliance, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and tribals’ Gondwana Ganantra Party (GGP) have also jumped into the fray on their own.

Declining trend

During the last three elections when the contest was bi-polar, the difference in vote shares showed a declining trend - 2.55 per cent in 2003, 1.77 per cent in 2008 and just 0.77 per cent in the 2013 elections. The BJP’s vote share in valid votes was 41.04 per cent while the Congress secured 40.29 per cent. The BSP garnered 4.27 per cent votes and Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GGP) polled 1.57 per cent votes.

Facing anti-incumbency of last 15 years, the BJP has played defensive by retaining almost all ministers and nominating many leaders who had lost the previous elections. Only one low profile woman minister Ramshila Sahu was among 14 sitting legislators dropped this time. Almost a year before the polls, BJP chief Amit Shah set a target “Mission 65” and the party unleashed a campaign to win at least 65 seats in the 90- member assembly - propagating that there is no anti-incumbency against the Raman Singh government and if at all there is one, it’s against individual legislators.

One the other hand, the Congress initially struggled with its usual problems of factionalism among its senior leaders and finalising its list of candidates and subsequently, the party leadership announced not to project anyone as its chief ministerial candidate and has fielded almost all senior state leaders to contest the elections. State Congress president Bhupesh Baghel, leader of the opposition T S Singhdeo, former union minister Charandas Mahant, former minister Satya Naraian Sharma, former leader of the opposition Ravindra Choubey are all in the fray.

All the parties have declared majority of its candidates and the remaining candidates are to be named within a couple of days. The scenario now looks like that there is a direct contest between the Congress and the BJP in 10 out of 12 constituencies in Maoist-affected tribal Bastar region. In two constituencies of Konta (ST) and Dantewada (ST), CPI candidates are in the reckoning. Similarly, in tribal Surguja/Jashpur region in North Chhattisgarh, which accounts for 14 seats, the contest is by and large between the Congress and BJP.

In the 2013 elections, the BJP had ceded more seats to the Congress in both Bastar and Surguja region, but managed to retain power by winning nine out of 10 seats reserved for the scheduled castes in the state’s central region.

Third Front

However, Jogi’s JCC and BSP alliance is likely to force a twist in these SC constituencies besides in nearly one-and-a- half dozen more constituencies where scheduled caste Satnami community can influence the voting pattern.

“We cannot under-estimate the Third Front. The new alliance of Jogi-Mayawati would lead to division of votes. They will cut into Congress votes more though they may affect other parties as well,” Raman Singh said.

State Congress president Bhupesh Baghel, however, refused to buy this argument saying that the Jogi- Mayawati alliance is in fact B team of the BJP, which is hoping that division of opposition votes would help retain power. Janata Congress is of no consequence and the contest is between the Congress and the BJP, he added.

Initially, Jogi had announced to field his party’s candidates for all the 90 assembly seats and maintained that he would directly take on Raman Singh in his home constituency of Rajnandgaon. Later, after he struck an alliance with the BSP, Jogi backed out saying that the alliances want him to focus on campaign in all the constituencies. Instead of going alone, Jogi struck a strategic alliance with the BSP agreeing to give 35 seats. In a surprise move, Jogi’s daughter-in-law Richa Jogi, wife of legislator Amit Jogi, joined the BSP and is contesting on party ticket from Akaltara constituency.

As of now, the BJP has almost completed its distribution of tickets and the ruling party has also stepped up its campaign in 18 constituencies, mostly Maoist-affected in seven constituencies of Bastar and neighbouring Rajnandgaon district that goes to polls in the first phase. Raman Singh is on an intensive campaign in these constituencies while a host of BJP leaders, including union ministers, have begun swarming to canvass support for ruling party candidates.

The Congress, however, is still bogged down with ticket distribution for the second phase and the campaign is left to local leaders in the respective constituencies. Raman Singh took a jibe at the Congress saying “Congress helicopter is lying unused for the last couple of days. There is no trace of their star campaigners”. Congress general secretary Shailesh Nitin Trivedi said party president Rahul Gandhi and other leaders would join the campaign in the couple of days.

One of the interesting factors to be watched in these polls is the 'None of the above' (NOTA) option as NOTA got the highest number of votes in Chhattisgarh in 2013 elections. The BJP and its associated organisations have unleashed a campaign against NOTA mainly in the tribal areas asking people not to opt for it. Besides, there is a whispering campaign in the tribal areas that anyone motivating people to vote for NOTA could be a Maoist sympathiser.

Meanwhile, the Maoists have given a call for boycott of elections and the rebels have also stepped up violence in the area targeting the security forces. But, election authorities have made arrangements for deployment of para-military forces and choppers for aerial surveillance and for logistics of polling parties to reach out to the remote and inaccessible polling stations in Bastar region.