The BJP is waiting in the wings to whisk P J Joseph away if he walks out of Kerala Congress (Mani). Though the party will consider it a big bonus if Joseph falls in its lap, the BJP leadership will not proactively attempt to poach a disgruntled Joseph. Reason: the BJP reckons the Joseph affair to be a mere storm in a tea cup.
"The issue will be sorted out in a matter of days," a top BJP leader said. "Joseph is seriously worried that his men are being sidelined in the party but we cannot underestimate the influence Muslim League has on the UDF affairs. Mani will eventually heed Kunhalikutty's words," he said. Things came to a head in the Kerala Congress when Jose K Mani started a statewide 'yatra' without consulting Joseph, the party's working chairman. This was seen as the junior Mani's attempt to take full control of the party from his father.
Mani's pregnant silence
At the moment, the BJP assessment is that the Kerala Congress crisis would blow over. “The UDF, as its leaders have been consistently saying, would give the KC(M) just the Kottayam seat and Mani will have no choice but to offer it to Joseph. K M Mani's silence right through the controversy is also very telling. We see this as a sign that Mani, too, is not keen to see the back of Joseph, at least for now,” the BJP leader said.
There is also a feeling in the BJP that P J Joseph is more ideologically rigid than Mani. “Mani had earlier given enough hints that he was fine with the BJP. Note the manner in which he had praised prime minister Narendra Modi and Arun Jaitley. We had very nearly got Mani to our side but a host of issues like the bar bribery probe had compelled Mani to opt for either the LDF or UDF. But Joseph has never really shown an inclination for the BJP. He generally stuck to pseudo-secular Leftist positions, which did not seem much of a contradiction when he defected to the UDF camp,” the leader said.
Christian votes matter
Nonetheless, the BJP is aware that it needs strong Christian backing to make some inroads into Kerala. Christians and Muslims constitute nearly 50 per cent of the state's population. Nearly 45 per cent of people in both Idukki and Kottayam districts are Christians; no other community has such a high concentration in any other district.
As of now, the party has the backing of P C Thomas, who has some influence in Idukki though it has considerably waned over the years, and Kerala Congress (Nationalist), a breakaway Kerala Congress faction that managed to secure 14 per cent votes in Kottayam in the 2014 elections. Incidentally, it was through Thomas that the NDA had its first MP from Kerala – Thomas had won by a narrow margin from the then Muvattupuzha constituency in 2004 Lok Sabha polls.
Joseph and his men are far more influential in the Idukki and Kottayam belts. Even a known Joseph-baiter like P C George said Joseph could easily wrest the Idukki seat from the Left independent Joice George. However, sources said P C Thomas, the party's Christian face, is dead against the entry of P J Joseph.
Shah's word of caution
During BJP national president Amit Shah's recent visit to Kerala, he had inquired about the alliances that the party had managed to strike. He was especially critical of the wobbly alliance it has with Bharathiya Dharma Jana Sena. He had wanted to know why the SNDP and the BDJS were on opposing sides.
Given Kerala's unique demographic, Shah had also asked the party honchos to rope in more minority leaders. “But he asked us to do a thorough assessment before even holding back room discussions,” a BJP leader said. “He didn't want the BJP to look too desperate to forge alliances,” he added.
