On February 14, when news broke about the militant attack on a CRPF convoy in Pulwama in Jammu and Kashmir, Congress leaders in Lucknow were preparing for a press conference by Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, the newly-appointed party general secretary in charge of eastern UP.
It was expected that she and Jyotiraditya Scindia would make some important announcement regarding the party’s election campaign.
A day ago, Bahujan Samaj Party leader Mayawati had launched a strong attack on the BJP and the Congress for harassing Muslims.
Two days ago, Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav had been barred from boarding an aircraft to visit Prayagraj (Allahabad).
The state administration was of the view that his visit may cause unrest in Prayagraj, where the Kumbh was under way.
The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party was busy organising a political response to the three-pronged attack.
But by the evening, the scenario changed dramatically.
The BJP's political rivals had to tone down their election rhetoric and everyone was glued to TV screens to learn more about the Pulwama terror strike.
Congress president Rahul Gandhi was among the first politicians to tweet his condolences. Priyanka cancelled her press conference in Lucknow.
Akhilesh and Mayawati, too, withheld their attacks on the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi to express solidarity with the armed forces. The unfortunate incident changed the political mood from the election campaign mode into one of grief and anger.
However, all this while, Modi continued with his hectic tour of states.
Since February 14, he has visited states including Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, though his focus remained on UP.
Modi has visited Gorakhpur, Prayagraj and Amethi. He is scheduled to visit Kanpur and Varanasi in coming days.
The message is clear: Modi has already launched the BJP’s election campaign, which now combines a heavy dose of rhetoric about the valour of the armed forces, with the earlier staple of attacks against the previous UPA government. The target of the campaign remains the Congress and its president Rahul Gandhi.
Without taking names, the PM's intention is to drive home the point that the previous government ignored the needs of the security forces.
Prior to February 14, the BJP’s election campaign content was based on the Centre’s welfare schemes, crackdown on corruption and black money and in UP, the performance of the Yogi Adityanath government.
The Kumbh in Prayagraj was also among the key points mentioned as achievement of the BJP government.
Now, the narrative has changed.
Farm distress, unease among the Scheduled Castes and Other backward Castes (OBCs) over reservation and unemployment no longer find a mention in the opposition's poll campaign.
The opposition finds itself tangled in a political mess over the actual casualties in the strike by Indian Air Force in Balakot.
Modi is scheduled to visit Kanpur on March 8, where he is likely to launch several schemes. Incidentally, the notification for the Lok Sabha election is likely to be issued any time after March 8.
So, Modi gets a leeway to make several promises and announcements during his Kanpur visit.
The public sentiment over the Pulwama attack and its aftermath is firmly rooted in nationalism.
There is a general support for whatever action India has taken to reign in Pakistan.
The safe release of the Abhinandan Varthaman from Pakistan, the reported downing of a Pakistani air force jet, denial of visas to Pakistani sportspersons, withdrawal of MFN status and diplomatic initiatives to step up international pressure on Pakistan have been welcomed by all.
In his public speeches, Modi has been mentioning all these moves to underline his government’s approach in dealing with Pakistan.
This is in sync with the public mood and also serves as a pointer to other BJP leaders including the UP chief minister.
The tone has thus has been set for the election campaign.
As Congress spokesman, who did not want to be identified, admitted his party knows the Pulwama attack and subsequent events will dominate the campaign.
But the unabashed use of the armed forces' strike in Pakistan as a campaign tool might not go down well with the people, according to him.
Therefore, the party will continue to raise other issues in the election campaign.
This is the line of thinking in the SP and the BSP camps too, as indicated by Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati in the past few days.
Modi is aware of this.
The tone and tenor of Modi’s speeches are similar to the 2014 campaign.
Modi will continue to portray the opposition attacks on himself as anti-national. This is aimed at tapping his existing support base, which is firmly anti-Congress.
Having realised that polarisation may not work beyond a point, it appears that Modi would like to tap the BJP's traditional base.