LS POLLS

Analysis | Lost opportunity for Jagan Reddy in Andhra assembly polls

The YS Jagan Mohan Reddy governance, which began in June 2019 with the demolition of Praja Vedika, a hall where people could present their grievances before the Chief Minister, was razed by the electorate in Andhra Pradesh now. His YSR Congress Party was reduced to 11 seats in the 175-member Assembly. The NDA, led by Telugu Desam Party, put up a historic performance by bagging 164. The TDP got 135, the Jana Sena won all the 21 seats it contested and the BJP secured eight seats.

Outgoing Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy was emotional at a press conference and he wondered why the people did not give him a second chance despite extending welfare benefits to more than 80 per cent of families. He said he can blame but doesn't have evidence to substantiate it. His tone sounded unusual when he said, "I faced many troubles. I am prepared for it if they want to trouble me more."

Many political observers see his defeat as a great opportunity lost. Jagan became the Chief Minister at the age of 46. He was dreaming of continuing in the office for 30 years, giving good governance. "My governance will impress you all in such a way that you all would hang my photo beside my father's", he promised while taking oath as the CM in May 2019. But, the administration went completely against this spirit.

Overconfidence, pushing the state into bankruptcy with indiscriminate borrowings, corruption, land grabbing charges, arrogance among ministers and MLAs, humiliating opposition leaders by talking about their personal lives, misuse of police and official machinery for targeting opponents, turning a blind eye to lawlessness, allegations of mining scams, ignoring development, failure to bring investments, forcing some prestigious companies like Amara Raja batteries to migrate to other states,

complete dependence on freebies (direct benefit transfer), suppressing people's voices with an iron hand through social media monitoring, failure to keep the total prohibition promise, sale of poor quality, and unknown liquor brands at exorbitant rates are among the reasons for the defeat.

The grudge among the electorate was so much that they travelled long distances to cast the ballot. A couple and their two daughters from Chennai flew to Visakhapatnam in the morning, exercised their franchise and flew back to Chennai the same evening, spending close to half a lakh rupees. People living abroad also came to campaign against the government.

Women voters participated in huge numbers across the state but, unusually remained secretive on who they had voted for. "People were scared of consequences if they revealed their choice. In the 2019 elections, people openly stated their choice without fear. The situation changed now because of the ruling party's witch-hunting", political analyst M Yugandhar Reddy said.

Jana Sena Party chief Pawan Kalyan's determination to dethrone YS Jagan Mohan Reddy also played a crucial role in the formation of the alliance involving TDP, BJP and JSP.
Pawan, who till August 2023 kept nurturing hopes to become the CM, hugely disappointed his party cadres, fans, well-wishers and his own Kapu community leaders by deciding to align with the TDP, knowing well that he could not become the CM.

Even greater disappointment for all his supporters came when he agreed to settle for 21 out of the total 175 seats. "We hoped that he would bargain for power sharing. At least 50 seats would have been decent. It is a known fact that Chandrababu Naidu needs Jana Sena support. There were bright chances for a respectable bargain," said a senior Kapu leader.
Pawan's struggle to convince the party rank and file succeeded partially with the cadres, who initially vent their anger on social media, falling in line subsequently.

But senior leaders like former ministers Mudragada Padmanabham and Chegondi Hari Ramajogaiah remained upset with Pawan's decision. They both distanced themselves from Pawan and later joined the ruling YSRCP and intensified their attack on Pawan. Mudragada went to the extent of vowing to defeat Pawan in the Pithapuram constituency. However, Pawan made his debut in the Assembly with a 70,000-plus majority.

False propaganda against the ruling party became one of the election campaign strategies. In 2019, YSRCP as an opposition party campaigned that the TDP government had given elevation to 35 Kamma officers out of a total of 37 promoted. Kamma is the caste to which Chandrababu belongs. In reality, the number of Kamma officers on the list was below five. But the TDP failed to tackle this fake propaganda effectively. This was considered one of the key factors that led to the TDP's humiliating defeat in 2019.
This time, the TDP as the opposition party adopted a similar strategy to defame the incumbent YS Jagan Mohan Reddy. It aggressively campaigned that all key positions in the government were occupied by the Reddy community.
Jaganmohan Reddy, who claims credit for the unprecedented welfare through various schemes covering all sections from senior citizens to schoolgoing children described the 2024 polls as the war of the poor against the rich feudal.

Jagan isolated himself by making his sister YS Sharmila an enemy. His mother too stayed away from him. She moved to the USA during the election period and released a video message calling upon people to vote for Sharmila, who was contesting on the Congress ticket against YSRCP candidate Avinash Reddy.
Jagan's style of functioning made the role of the party's second-rung leaders ornamental.
The Jana Sena-TDP-BJP alliance worked perfectly bringing in rich dividends to all the partners. Though the BJP joined the alliance late, Jana Sena and TDP were together long before the poll schedule was announced.