MODI 3.0

Analysis | UP's dominance in Cabinet intact, no snub for Yogi

The result of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has led the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to the unenviable situation of participating in a coalition government after it had been used to leading for a decade, a government which was a coalition only for namesake. More than that, it has also made the centre of power in New Delhi to shift a little away from a state that had the historic advantage of electing 80 members to Parliament.

In the NDA governments formed in 2014 and 2019, the BJP had won 73 and 64 seats, respectively, from Uttar Pradesh, leading to a heavy representation of the state in the Central government. However, with the number of MPs from UP having come down to a mere 33 this time, the number of ministers from the state has not come down in that proportion. The 2024 election result has seen a larger number of candidates winning from states like Odisha, and the composition of Modi government has greater participation of western and southern states.

The final list of members of the Narendra Modi-led Council of Ministers features nine from UP. They are: Rajnath Singh, Hardeep Puri, B L Verma, Jitin Prasada, Kamlesh Paswan, SPS Baghel, Pankaj Chaudhary, Jayant Chaudhary and Anupriya Patel – the last two from ally parties Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Apna Dal. This is in contrast to 12 members from UP in the previous Modi government. Of these, Puri is a member of the Rajya Sabha, and except Jayant Chaudhary and Jitin Prasad, the rest have been part of the previous Modi government.

The reduced number of MPs from the state has had little impact on the state’s representation at the Centre, because the state will continue to have 80 seats in the next election too, and it is slated to go for Assembly election in less than three years’ time. The party enjoys a big majority with 273 members in a House of 403, and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s popularity among the people or acceptance among the party members do not seem to have reduced.

Several theories have been put up for discussion to explain the below-par performance of the BJP in this election. The factors include a shift of the OBCs and Dalits towards the INDIA bloc comprising Samajwadi Party and Congress, and poor selection of candidates despite the reservations of the state leadership. However, the performance of the Yogi government does not seem to have played a role in the voters’ minds. The consolidation of Hindu votes brought about by Modi’s persona and appeal leading to the one-sided result in 2014 and 2019, failed to stay in place this time, and casteism came to play its traditional role once again.

Akhilesh Yadav was clever enough to sense this, whereas the BJP – overconfident because of Modi’s appeal and Yogi’s popularity – failed to even recognise this shift in voter’s mood. It appears that dominant OBC groups such as Yadavs, Sainis, Kurmis, Nishads, in addition to Jatavs drifted away from the BJP, with the Muslims having voted purposefully against the BJP. Discontent among the Thakurs (Rajputs) against the BJP also had an impact in many places. It is also acknowledged by party insiders that the indifference of the BJP and RSS cadre also contributed to the party’s poor performance, as did the Congress promise of distributing Rs 1 lakh among women if elected to power, and the false narrative about BJP abolishing reservations. There are also complaints that the BJP’s social media team failed to counter the Opposition’s disinformation in the narrative war.

Another major reason, now being discussed openly, is the establishment of the “high command” culture in the BJP, something that had been synonymous with the working of the Congress for decades. This manifested itself in faulty ticket distribution, neglecting the old cadre, rising central control and decisions imposed by Delhi. This had been showing itself in disinterest of state BJP and RSS leaders, a relatively unexciting atmosphere in the state BJP head office in Lucknow, and the distance showed by some ministers in campaigning. This was remarkable even as important leaders from the SP and BSP gravitated towards the BJP in the run-up to the election campaign.

Yogi’s importance
As far as Yogi Adityanath’s importance for the party is concerned, reports say that he held more than 170 election programmes, including rallies, road shows in 12 states outside UP. These states included Maharashtra, Bihar, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab. He was much in demand in states like Gujarat and in UP, he often had more than 6 rallies in a day. However, the Opposition especially the Aam Aadmi Party’s Arvind Kejriwal, helped spread a narrative that Yogi could be removed after the results, and in the absence of a strong denial from the top, this campaign sent the wrong message to party supporters.

For the BJP, winning the UP Assembly election in 2027 is crucial for its campaign to win again in 2029. At least in the current scheme of things, Yogi Adityanath appears to be indispensable to lead Uttar Pradesh. The choice of faces from UP in the new Modi government does not indicate there being any attempt to snub any BJP Chief Minister or ally parties.

There are reports that Yogi will be making major changes in the bureaucracy and a reshuffle in his ministry is also not ruled out. The present political realities indicate that Modi government will be wary of disturbing the chief ministers in BJP-ruled states. Party sources also indicate that the BJP’s focus now could be on consolidation of its support base and ironing out differences in state units. A major redrawing of social engineering roadmap will need active and consistent support and cooperation of states. With UP being the largest among the 17 states ruled by NDA, any attempt to weaken Yogi Adityanath appears unlikely.