Analysis | Will 'miracle child' repeat show work wonders for Cong in 6 seats?

When Oommen Chandy ran his government with a thin majority in 2011, Opposition leader V S Achuthanandan was at his sarcastic best, mostly during the Assembly sessions. Whenever the ruling front wanted to get a motion/resolution passed, Achuthanandan would playfully rue over the predicament. "The ruling MLAs can't even go to the toilet in peace. If they are a minute late, they could lose the government".

The UDF had come to power, winning 72 seats, while the LDF had 68. Oommen Chandy, the master strategist he was, sat through the insult, bade his time and struck when it mattered. CPM was in the thick of Piravom byelection campaign when its Neyyatinkara MLA R Selvaraj delivered a body blow. He quit as the MLA and as the district committee member in 2012. CPM panicked. VS lost his sense of humour and mouthed damning allegations of bribery against Selvaraj. He even blasted the committee for not anticipating Selvaraj's move.

Chandy and the team had sensed what the CPM had missed. Even during the seat-sharing of the 2011 elections, Selvaraj had differences with CPM leader Anavoor Nagappan. When the results came, Nagappan lost in Parassala. It was alleged that Selvaraj was responsible for party's loss. As tension grew within the CPM district committee, Congress acted smartly. Selvaraj, who had attended the Assembly the previous day, cast his vote, walked up to the Speaker's residence and put in his resignation the next day.

The resignation of Selvaraj was felt in Piravom. UDF candidate T M Jacob had scraped through with just 157 votes in 2011. He died while serving as the Food and Civil Supplies Minister, necessitating a bypoll. CPM knew they had a chance of winning the seat, considering the narrow margin of loss in 2011. The entire machinery was shifted to Piravom. Then Selvaraj quit, rattling the party. The CPM lost the election in spite of a high-intensity campaign led by Pinarayi Vijayan. The Congress then fielded Selvaraj again from Neyyatinkara in the bypoll. The UDF won back-to-back bypolls. The tally became 73-67. The Congress could breathe more freely.

More than a decade later, the UDF is going to the 2026 Assembly polls without fielding its candidates in four constituencies: Ottapalam, Payyannur, Taliparamba and Ambalapuzha. It has fielded former comrades Aisha Potty and Achuthanandan's aide A Suresh on Congress tickets in Kottarakara and Malampuzha respectively. It will be the first time since 1982 that Congress has not fielded an official candidate in Ambalapuzha. On the face of it, it looks like a simple act of accommodating CPM dissidents. For the Congress, it is a broader expansion of a tactic which has always paid good dividends.

Even before the Selvaraj episode, the Congress had gleefully accepted A P Abdullakutty to its fold in 2009. While serving as the CPM's Kannur MP, Abdullakutty was expelled from the party for his pro-Modi remarks. The Congress didn't mind. He was fielded from Kannur in the Assembly by-poll held in 2009. He lived up to his moniker 'the miracle child' (albhuthakutty) and deflated M V Jayarajan with a majority of over 10,000 votes. As a CPM member, Abdullakutty had trounced Mullappally Ramachandran and, since then, always flaunted the trait of uprooting the mighty in electoral battles.

The Congress believes that supporting CPM veterans would expose the depravity within the CPM. It has not allotted symbols in four seats so as to ensure the flow of party votes.

"In politics, it is very important to take advantage of division in the opposition party. The CPM and Congress treat dissidents from other parties differently. It's for the first time in the history of Assembly polls that the Congress would be deploying former CPM senior leaders in major constituencies. It's not just about votes, it is also about discrediting the CPM," said M B Pavanan, veteran political journalist.

In Ambalapuzha, the Congress withdrew its prospective candidate M Liju. He was planted in Kayamkulam so that party could support former Minister G Sudhakaran who recently quit the CPM. This is a seat where the CPM has lost only five times in six decades.

By backing Sudhakaran, who had earlier won from Ambalapuzha thrice, Congress hopes anti-CPM and anti-government votes would add to Sudhakaran's established vote base. It didn't want to wage a losing battle by having an official candidate since that would lead to a split in the vote bank, spoiling the chances.

In Payyannur and Taliparamba, the UDF supports former CPM leaders V Kunhikrishnan and T K Govindan. Kunhikrishnan had taken on party leadership over the martyr's fund fraud while Govindan openly slammed party's state secretary M V Govindan for favouring his wife P K Syamala as the candidate for Taliparamba. Both of them could sow doubts among cadres, and the Congress wants to take advantage of the same.

The Congress plays a no-risk game. It had won only once in Taliparamba in 1970 when its candidate Govindan Nambiar won by a narrow margin of 909 votes. CPM has always prevailed in Payyanur. From 1977, mostly independents were fielded there except when Kerala Congress candidate P T Jose contested from Taliparamba in 1982 against C O Moossankutty.

Since 1990, the UDF has always fielded candidates in both these constituencies. In Payyanur and Taliparamba, CPM always maintained a vote share of above 50 per cent, at times attaining even above 60 per cent. While Congress has never managed to cross 43 per cent. "There is no harm in trying out a new equation. We got nothing to lose in these constituencies, but we can engineer a split," a senior Congress leader said.

While the Congress doesn't hope for any major upset in Malampuzha, it banks on Aisha Potty. She had won from Kottarakara three times and according to the Congress leaders, she could give a strong fight to K N Balagopal. R Resmi, the BJP candidate, had polled 38 per cent here as the Congress candidate. As for Suresh, the Congress wants to project that those with morally clean credentials have no place in CPM, even somebody who was close to Achuthanandan.

The Congress's principled choices in other constituencies may prove beneficial, however, there is dissent in Ottapalam. Expelled CPM leader P K Sasi who had faced allegations of sexual abuse and fund fraud has found UDF support. Again, the theory is simple. Last time Congress won here was in 1987 when K Sankaranarayanan bagged the seat. "There is no point raising old allegations. Sasi holds significant clout there, and it can work to our advantage," another Congress leader said.

The ploy has come with its set of challenges. The Congress faces rebels and turncoats in Alappuzha, Taliparamba and other places. "Even in the past, there was such dissent, but its effect would be minimal," said Pavanan.