Manorama–C Voter survey part 3: LDF holds edge in south Kerala, UDF gains in Pathanamthitta, Rajeev Chandrasekhar in Nemom

The Manorama News–C Voter mega survey signals a shifting political landscape in south Kerala ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections, with the BJP-led NDA making key inroads despite the Left Democratic Front (LDF) retaining an overall edge. A notable highlight is Nemom, where BJP leader Rajeev Chandrasekhar is projected to defeat CPM's V Sivankutty and Congress's K S Sabarinadhan, marking a significant gain for the NDA in a constituency that has seen closely watched contests in recent elections.

While the LDF is projected to lead in Alappuzha, Kollam and Thiruvananthapuram, it faces a sharp decline in vote share across these districts. The erosion appears to be benefiting the NDA, which is registering steady gains. The United Democratic Front (UDF) is expected to take the lead in Pathanamthitta and make marginal improvements in other districts.

The survey also points to a series of tight contests in key constituencies, indicating that local factors and candidate profiles could play a decisive role. Overall, the findings suggest a more competitive electoral environment in south Kerala, with the NDA emerging as a stronger player and traditional strongholds witnessing closer battles.

Thiruvananthapuram
In Thiruvananthapuram district, the LDF is projected to win between eight and ten seats, while the UDF will secure two to four seats. The NDA, meanwhile, is expected to lead in one to three seats. In terms of vote share, the LDF is projected to secure around 34 per cent, marking a decline of 11.8 per cent compared to the 2021 assembly polls. The UDF is expected to register a marginal increase of 0.8 per cent, taking its vote share to about 32 per cent. The NDA, on the other hand, could see a significant rise of 7.2 per cent, pushing its vote share to 27 per cent.

Other candidates are projected to account for around 8 per cent of the votes. In Kazhakoottam, identified as a hot seat, BJP's V Muraleedharan is projected to edge past LDF's Kadakampally Surendran in a close contest. In Vattiyoorkkavu, another hot seat, the contest is also expected to be tight, with CPM candidate V K Prasanth projected to retain the seat, ahead of UDF's K Muraleedharan and BJP's R Sreelekha. In Nemom, BJP's Rajeev Chandrasekhar is projected to win, defeating Education Minister V Sivankutty (CPM) and Congress leader K S Sabarinadhan.

In the 2021 Assembly elections, LDF achieved a near-total sweep of Thiruvananthapuram district, winning 13 out of 14 seats. The most historic result was in Nemom, where the LDF unseated the BJP from what was their only assembly seat in the state. CPM's V Sivankutty defeated BJP's Kummanam Rajasekharan in the constituency. The UDF managed to retain only one seat (Kovalam constituency) in the district.

Pathanamthitta
In Pathanamthitta district, the survey projects UDF to win between three and five seats, with its vote share increasing by 4.3 per cent compared to the 2021 Assembly polls, taking its total vote share to around 36 per cent. The LDF, which won all five seats in the district last time, is projected to lead in only zero to two seats, with its vote share declining by 12.2 per cent points.

The NDA, meanwhile, is not expected to make any significant gains in the district. Aranmula has emerged as a hot seat with sitting MLA and Health Minister Veena George facing a strong challenge from UDF candidate Abin Varkey. The survey points to a neck-and-neck contest in the constituency, with NDA candidate Kummanam Rajasekharan also likely to play a role in influencing the voting pattern. In Adoor, another hot seat, UDF candidate C V Shantakumar is projected to defeat Priji Kannan (CPI).

The survey also asked respondents whether sitting MLAs should be given another chance to contest. While 45.3 per cent supported their continuation, 48.3 per cent said they should not be fielded again. The remaining 6.4 per cent said they had no opinion. In the 2021 Assembly elections, the LDF achieved a historic 'clean sweep' in Pathanamthitta district, winning all 5 available seats.

The most watched contest was in Konni, where CPM's Jenish Kumar defended the seat against INC's Robin Peter and BJP's K Surendran.

Kollam
In Kollam district, the LDF is projected to win between five and seven seats, while the UDF could secure four to six seats. The NDA, meanwhile, is unlikely to win any seats. In terms of vote share, the LDF is projected to secure around 36 per cent of the votes, marking a decline of 11.3 per cent compared to the 2021 elections. The UDF is expected to register only a marginal gain of 1.1 per cent, taking its vote share to about 38 per cent. The NDA, on the other hand, could see a significant increase of 6.7 per cent, pushing its vote share to 18 per cent. Other candidates are projected to account for around 8 per cent of the votes.

In Kottarakkara, identified as a hot seat, Finance Minister and sitting MLA K N Balagopal is projected to defeat UDF candidate Aisha Potti. In Pathanapuram, another hot seat, sitting MLA and Transport Minister K B Ganesh Kumar is expected to win by a narrow margin against UDF's Jyothikumar Chamakkala. Meanwhile, in the Kollam constituency, Congress candidate Bindu Krishna is projected to defeat LDF's S Jayamohan. In the 2021 Assembly elections, the LDF maintained a strong hold on Kollam district, winning 9 out of the 11 seats. The UDF secured the remaining 2 seats. The most high-profile result in the district was the defeat of the incumbent Fisheries Minister, J Mercykutty Amma (LDF), in the Kundara constituency.

Alappuzha
The survey projects a clear advantage for the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Alappuzha, estimating that it could win between six and eight seats in the district. The United Democratic Front (UDF) is projected to secure between one and three seats, while the NDA is unlikely to win any. In terms of vote share, the LDF is expected to see a decline of over 10 per cent compared to the last election. A significant portion of this erosion appears to benefit the NDA, which is projected to gain around 7 per cent.

The UDF, meanwhile, is likely to see only a marginal increase of about 0.7 per cent in its vote share. Ambalappuzha has emerged as the hot seat in the district. Former CPM leader and minister G Sudhakaran, contesting as an independent with the support of the UDF, is projected to trail incumbent H Salam of the CPM by a narrow margin. Kuttanad is another hot seat, with sitting MLA Thomas K Thomas (NCP-SP), Kerala Congress (J) candidate Reji Cherian, and BDJS's Santosh Santhy in the fray. The survey predicts a tight contest between Reji Cherian and Thomas K Thomas in the constituency.

In the 2021 Assembly elections, the LDF maintained its dominance in Alappuzha district, winning 8 out of the 9 seats. The UDF managed to retain only one seat. A major highlight was the LDF's ability to win back the Aroor constituency, which it had lost to the UDF in a 2019 byelection.

Manorama News C-Voter mega survey: Central Kerala results
The second part of the survey results released on Monday pointed to a mixed electoral landscape across central Kerala, with the LDF retaining strength in Palakkad and Thrissur and the UDF poised to dominate in Ernakulam, Kottayam and Idukki. The survey estimates that the UDF could win at least 33 of the 53 seats in central Kerala, with the LDF at 24 and the NDA at 1. A look at the hot seats also suggested a mix of clear leads and tight contests.

The Manorama News C–Voter survey is one of the largest pre-poll opinion surveys conducted in Kerala so far, with participation from 89,693 respondents. The survey ensured representation across all 140 Assembly constituencies, regions, and demographic groups.

The sample for the opinion poll was collected between March 14 and 26. In addition, tracker and snap polls were conducted from December 1 to March 20. The survey was carried out in accordance with the guidelines of the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) and the norms set by the Press Council of India.

(Read Part 1 & 2 of Manorama News C Survey)