Manorama News–C Voter survey projects UDF win with 69–81 seats; LDF at 57–69, NDA 1–5

The Manorama News–C Voter mega survey for the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections signals a clear edge for the United Democratic Front (UDF), marking a shift from the 2021 verdict when the Left Democratic Front (LDF) scripted a historic comeback.

The latest survey projects the UDF to win 69–81 seats, with the LDF dropping to 57–69 seats and the NDA improving to 1–5 seats. In the 2021 Assembly polls, the LDF won 99 of 140 seats, returning to power for a rare consecutive term, while the UDF was reduced to 41 seats and the NDA failed to open its account.

Based on responses from 89,693 participants collected between December 1 and March 26, the survey points to a more competitive political landscape, with visible vote erosion for the LDF, a broad-based UDF recovery, and incremental gains for the BJP-led NDA.

South Kerala: LDF still leads
After sweeping most districts in 2021, the LDF still leads in South Kerala with projected wins in Thiruvananthapuram (8–10) and Alappuzha (6–8), but faces sharp losses in Pathanamthitta, where the UDF is now ahead (3–5).

1. Thiruvananthapuram

• LDF: 8–10
• UDF: 2–4
• NDA: 1–3

Hot seats

• Kazhakoottam: V Muraleedharan (BJP) ahead
• Vattiyoorkkavu: V K Prasanth (LDF) likely to retain
• Nemom: Rajeev Chandrasekhar (BJP) projected winner

2021 result: LDF: 13/14 seats, UDF: 1, NDA: 0

2. Pathanamthitta

• UDF: 3–5
• LDF: 0–2

Hot seats

• Aranmula: Tight contest (Veena George vs Abin Varkey)
• Adoor: C V Shantakumar (UDF) likely winner

2021 result: LDF: 5/5 seats

3. Kollam

• LDF: 5–7
• UDF: 4–6
• NDA: 0

Hot seats

• Kottarakkara: K N Balagopal (LDF) ahead
• Pathanapuram: K B Ganesh Kumar (LDF) narrow lead
• Kollam: Bindu Krishna (UDF) likely winner

2021 result: LDF: 9/11 seats, UDF: 2

4. Alappuzha

• LDF: 6–8
• UDF: 1–3
• NDA: 0

Hot seats

• Ambalappuzha: H Salam (LDF) ahead
• Kuttanad: Tight contest

2021 result: LDF: 8/9, UDF: 1

Central Kerala: UDF poised for major gains
From an LDF-dominated region in 2021, central Kerala now tilts strongly towards the UDF, which is projected to win around 33 of 53 seats, gaining ground across Ernakulam, Kottayam and Idukki.

• UDF: ~33
• LDF: ~24
• NDA: 1

5. Palakkad

• LDF: 8–10
• UDF: 2–4

Hot seats

• Thrithala: V T Balram (UDF) slight edge
• Ottapalam: K Premkumar (LDF)
• Palakkad: Ramesh Pisharody (UDF)

2021 result: LDF: 10/12, UDF: 2

6. Thrissur

• LDF: 9–11
• UDF: 2–4
• NDA: up to 1

Hot seats

• Thrissur: Tight UDF–NDA fight
• Nattika: LDF advantage

2021 result: LDF: 12/13, UDF: 1

7. Ernakulam

• UDF: 12–14
• LDF: 0–2

Hot seats

• Kunnathunad: V P Sajeendran (UDF)
• Kalamassery: P Rajeev (LDF) slight edge

2021 result: UDF: 9/14, LDF: 5

8. Kottayam

• UDF: 7–9
• LDF: 0–2

Hot seats

• Poonjar: Tight contest
• Changanassery: Vinu Jacob (UDF) ahead
• Pala: Mani C Kappan (UDF) edge

2021 result: LDF: 5/9, UDF: 4

9. Idukki

• UDF: 3–5
• LDF: 0–2

Hot seat

Idukki: Roy K Paulose (UDF) likely winner

2021 result: LDF: 4/5, UDF: 1

North Kerala
While the LDF retains its traditional strongholds like Kannur and Kasaragod, the UDF consolidates its dominance in Malappuram (14–16) and Wayanad (2–3), pointing to a split verdict unlike 2021.

10. Kasaragod

• LDF: 2–4
• UDF: 1–3
• NDA: 0–1

Hot seat
Manjeshwar: A K M Ashraf (UDF) likely to retain

2021 result: Mixed; close contests across 5 seats

11. Kannur

• LDF: 6–8
• UDF: 3–5

Hot seats

• Peravoor: Sunny Joseph (UDF) edge
• Kannur: T O Mohanan (UDF) edge
• Taliparamba: LDF advantage

2021 result: LDF dominant (majority of 11 seats)

12. Wayanad

• UDF: 2–3
• LDF: 0–1

13. Kozhikode

• LDF: 6–8
• UDF: 5–7

Hot seats

• Beypore: P A Mohammed Riyas (LDF) slight edge
• Kuttiady: Parakkal Abdulla (UDF) slight edge

14. Malappuram

• UDF: 14–16
• LDF: 0–2

Hot seats

• Thavanur: V S Joy (UDF) ahead
• Tanur: P K Navas (UDF) ahead

The survey underscores a clear trend: the LDF’s 2021 dominance is under pressure, with anti-incumbency and vote erosion evident across regions. The UDF appears to be benefiting from this shift, particularly in central and north Kerala, while the NDA is emerging as a more relevant third force, especially in select urban constituencies.

With several constituencies witnessing tight, candidate-driven contests, the 2026 election is shaping up to be far more competitive than the last, with the outcome hinging on narrow margins across key battlegrounds.

The Manorama News C–Voter survey is one of the largest pre-poll opinion surveys conducted in Kerala so far, with participation from 89,693 respondents. The survey ensured representation across all 140 Assembly constituencies, regions, and demographic groups. The survey was released in three parts. 

Part 1: Manorama News C-Voter survey results: LDF leads north Kerala; UDF dominates Wayanad, Malappuram as Kozhikode tilts | Click here

Part 2: Manorama News C-Voter survey results: Palakkad, Thrissur lean in favour of LDF; UDF dominates Idukki, Ernakulam | Click here

Part 3: Manorama News–C Voter survey: LDF ahead in south Kerala; BJP may gain in 1–5 seats, including Nemom | Click here

The sample for the opinion poll was collected between March 14 and 26. In addition, tracker and snap polls were conducted from December 1 to March 20. The survey was carried out in accordance with the guidelines of the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) and the norms set by the Press Council of India.