Manorama News C-Voter survey results: LDF leads north Kerala; UDF dominates Wayanad, Malappuram as Kozhikode tilts

The Manorama News C-Voter mega survey for the 2026 Kerala Assembly polls indicates a clear advantage for the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kasaragod and Kannur. In contrast, the United Democratic Front (UDF) is projected to perform strongly across all three constituencies in Wayanad. In Kozhikode, the LDF appears set to lose some of the dominance it enjoyed in 2021. Of the 13 seats in the district, where it had won 11 previously, the Left Front is now projected to secure between 6 and 8 seats. Meanwhile, the UDF is set to dominate Malappuram, facing little challenge this time.

In Manjeshwar, the survey suggests a setback for former BJP state president K Surendran, while in Peravoor, the contest remains tight, with Congress leader Sunny Joseph holding a slight edge over former Health Minister K K Shailaja.

Kasaragod district outlook
Manjeshwar in Kasaragod district is one of the constituencies where the NDA has high hopes. BJP’s former state president K Surendran is the NDA candidate here. Having lost by a narrow margin of just 745 votes in the last election, will Surendran win the seat this time? The Manorama News–C Voter mega election survey suggests it may be difficult. The survey indicates that UDF candidate A K M Ashraf of the Muslim League is likely to retain the seat.

In Kasaragod district, which has a total of five constituencies, the survey gives an edge to the LDF. It predicts that the LDF may win between two and four seats. The UDF is expected to secure between one and three seats, while the NDA is projected to win zero to one seat.

However, the UDF is likely to secure the highest vote share in the district at 39%, showing a slight increase compared to 2021. The LDF is projected to receive 34% of the vote, a drop of four percentage points from the previous election.

The NDA may secure around 21% of the vote, largely due to its influence in areas like Manjeshwar. However, the survey signals are not favourable for the NDA in Manjeshwar. Other parties and independent candidates are expected to garner around 5% of the vote.

LDF dominance to continue in Kannur
The survey predicts that the Left will retain its stronghold in Kannur district. Out of the 11 constituencies, the LDF is expected to win between 6 and 8 seats. The UDF may secure 3 to 5 seats, while the NDA is unlikely to win any seat in the district this time as well. In terms of vote share, the LDF is well ahead with 43%, followed by the UDF at 37%. The NDA’s vote share is projected to reach around 13%, while others and independent candidates may secure about 7%.

Peravoor: Kannur has several constituencies witnessing intense contests between prominent political leaders. One of the fiercest battles is in Peravoor, where KPCC president Sunny Joseph faces former Health Minister K K Shailaja. The contest is neck and neck, with the survey indicating a slight edge for Sunny Joseph. In the last election, Sunny Joseph defeated CPM’s K V Sakkeer Hussain by 3,172 votes. K K Shailaja had won from Mattannur in 2021 with a massive margin of 60,963 votes.

Kannur: The Kannur constituency, which saw controversy over KPCC chief K. Sudhakaran’s interest in contesting, is expected to witness a tight fight. The survey gives a slight advantage to Congress candidate T O Mohanan. He is up against sitting MLA and minister Ramachandran Kadannappally, while C. Raghunath is in the fray for the BJP. The controversies triggered by Sudhakaran have subsided, and his active campaigning has boosted confidence in the UDF camp. In 2021, Kadannappally defeated Congress candidate Satheesan Pacheni by a margin of just 1,745 votes.

Taliparamba: Despite internal dissent in the CPM over fielding P.K. Shyamala, wife of CPM state secretary M V Govindan, the LDF is projected to maintain the upper hand in Taliparamba. In the previous election, M V Govindan won the seat with a margin of 22,689 votes against the Congress candidate Adv V P Abdul Rasheed. This time, P K Shyamala is contesting against T K Govindan, a former CPM district secretariat member who is backed by the UDF and also reportedly has the support of a section within the CPM.

UDF likely to perform strongly in all 3 Wayanad constituencies
The survey shows promising prospects for the UDF across all three Wayanad constituencies. It suggests that the UDF might secure between two and three seats. The LDF is likely to secure zero to one seat, while the NDA has little chance of winning.

In terms of vote share, the UDF is far ahead of the LDF, with a projected 45%. The LDF is expected to secure 33%, while the NDA may get around 16%. Others and independent candidates are projected to receive about 6% of the votes.

Wayanad has three constituencies: Mananthavady, Sulthan Bathery, and Kalpetta. In Mananthavady, Minister O R Kelu is contesting again for the LDF, while Usha Vijayan represents the UDF and V Shyamraj is the NDA candidate. In Sulthan Bathery, sitting MLA I C Balakrishnan of the Congress is facing CPM leader M S Viswanathan, who had lost to him in the previous election. V S Kavi is the NDA candidate. In Kalpetta, T Siddique, who defeated M V Shreyams Kumar in the previous election, is contesting again for the UDF. P K Anil Kumar is the LDF candidate, while Prashanth Malavayal is in the fray for the NDA.

LDF may lose grip in Kozhikode
The survey indicates that the LDF could lose its stronghold in Kozhikode district, which it dominated in 2021. Of the 13 seats, the Left Front—having won 11 previously—is now projected to secure between 6 and 8 seats. The UDF, which managed only two seats last time, is expected to make significant gains, with a projected tally of 5 to 7 seats. The NDA is unlikely to open its account in the district.

In terms of vote share, the UDF is expected to edge past the LDF, securing 40% compared to the LDF’s 39%. The NDA is projected to receive 14%, while others and independents may account for around 7%.

Beypore - Beypore is shaping up as a high-profile contest, with P V Anvar taking on Minister P A Mohammed Riyas, who is also the son-in-law of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Although the contest is expected to be intense, the pre-poll survey gives a slight edge to Riyas. In the last election, Riyas defeated Congress candidate P M Niyas by a margin of 28,747 votes.

Kuttiady - Kuttiady, a sitting seat of the CPM, is also witnessing a keen contest. In 2021, K P Kunhammed Kutty Master won the seat by a narrow margin of just 333 votes. The Muslim League and the UDF are hopeful of a turnaround this time, with Parakkal Abdulla, who lost previously, re-entering the fray. The sitting MLA Kunhammed Kutty Master is once again the LDF candidate, while Ramdas Manaleri is contesting for the NDA. The survey predicts a close fight, with a slight edge for Parakkal Abdulla.

UDF set to dominate Malappuram
The survey suggests that the UDF is set to dominate Malappuram, facing little challenge this time, while the LDF is likely to see a decline compared to the previous election. In the 16-seat district, the UDF is projected to win between 14 and 16 seats. The LDF may be limited to zero to two seats, with the NDA unlikely to secure any.

The UDF also holds a clear lead in vote share at 49%, followed by the LDF at 34%. The NDA is expected to garner around 10%, while others and independents may account for about 7%.

Tanur and Thavanur are the key battlegrounds in Malappuram. Among them, Thavanur—where former minister K T Jaleel faces DCC president V S Joy—is drawing significant attention. BJP’s Ravi Thelath is the NDA candidate here.

In 2021, Jaleel defeated Congress candidate Firoz Kunnamparambil after a closely fought contest, with a margin of 2,564 votes. This time, however, the pre-poll survey suggests that Jaleel may face a setback, with V.S. Joy tipped to win in Thavanur. In Tanur, IUML’s P K Navas is projected to have the edge. LDF candidate Mohammed Shameer (NSC) and BJP’s Deepa Puzhakkal are also in the fray.

The Manorama News C–Voter survey is one of the largest pre-poll opinion surveys conducted in Kerala so far, with participation from 89,693 respondents. The survey ensured representation across all 140 Assembly constituencies, regions, and demographic groups. The remaining results will be broadcast by Manorama News on Monday and Tuesday.

The sample for the opinion poll was collected between March 14 and 26. In addition, tracker and snap polls were conducted from December 1 to March 20. The survey was carried out in accordance with the guidelines of the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) and the norms set by the Press Council of India.