Manorama News C-Voter survey results: Palakkad, Thrissur lean in favour of LDF; UDF dominates Idukki, Ernakulam

The Manorama News–C Voter mega survey for the 2026 Kerala Assembly polls points to a mixed electoral landscape across central Kerala, with the LDF retaining strength in Palakkad and Thrissur and the UDF poised to dominate in Ernakulam, Kottayam and Idukki. Part 2 of the survey, which projects results for the region, estimates that the UDF could win at least 33 of the 53 seats in central Kerala, with the LDF at 24 and the NDA at 1.

A look at the hot seats suggests a mix of clear leads and tight contests: V T Balram holds a slight edge over M B Rajesh in Thrithala; K Premkumar is likely to retain Ottapalam for the LDF; and Ramesh Pisharody is projected to win in Palakkad against Sobha Surendran and N M Razaq. In Thrissur, Rajan J Pallan and Padmaja Venugopal are locked in a close fight, while Geetha Gopi has the advantage in Nattika. In Ernakulam, V P Sajeendran is likely to defeat P V Sreenijin in Kunnathunad, though P Rajeev retains a narrow edge over V A Abdul Gafoor in Kalamassery. In Kottayam, M J Sebastian and Sebastian Kulathunkal are in a tight contest; in Poonjar, Vinu Jacob leads in Changanassery  against Job Michael; and in Pala, Mani C Kappan holds an edge over Jose K Mani and Shone George. In Idukki, Roy K Paulose is projected to defeat Roshy Augustine.

Palakkad
According to the projections, the LDF is expected to secure 8–10 seats in Palakkad district, while the UDF is likely to win 2–4 seats. The NDA is currently projected to remain seatless in the district. In terms of vote share, the LDF leads with 38%, followed closely by the UDF at 36%. The survey predicts a narrow lead for V T Balram in Thrithala over Minister M B Rajesh, who is seeking re-election. In Ottapalam, CPM's K Premkumar is expected to retain the seat. The survey suggests that CPM's former leader, P K Sasi, contesting as a UDF-backed independent, may not make the expected impact. Filmmaker and actor Major Ravi is contesting for the NDA this time. In Palakkad, Ramesh Pisharody is predicted to win, defeating BJP's senior leader Sobha Surendran and LDF's N M Razaq.

In the 2021 Kerala Assembly Elections, the Palakkad district saw a dominant performance by the LDF, which secured 10 out of the 12 seats. The UDF managed to win 2 seats, while the NDA finished as the runner-up in several key constituencies but did not secure a seat.

• LDF (10 Seats): Thrithala: M B Rajesh (CPM), Pattambi: Muhammed Muhassin (CPI), Shornur: P Mammikutty (CPM), Ottapalam: K Premkumar (CPM), Kongad (SC): Shanthakumari K (CPM), Malampuzha: A Prabhakaran (CPM), Tarur (SC): P P Sumod (CPM), Chittur: K Krishnankutty (JD(S)), Alathur: K D Prasenan (CPM), Nenmara: K Babu (CPM)
• UDF (2 Seats): Mannarkkad: N Samsudheen (IUML), Palakkad: Shafi Parambil (INC) (Rahul Mamkootathil won in the byelection)

Thrissur
The survey suggests a competitive battle in Thrissur, though the LDF maintains a clear lead. According to the survey, the LDF is projected to win 9–11 seats, while the UDF is expected to secure 2–4 seats. Notably, the NDA is projected to open an account in the district, with up to 1 seat. In Nattika, the CPI's Geetha Gopi has an advantage despite former Left MLA CC Mukundan joining the BJP. In Thrissur constituency, UDF's Rajan J Pallan and NDA's Padmaja Venugopal are in a tight contest, with a slight edge for the Congress candidate.

In the 2021 Kerala Assembly Elections, the Thrissur district witnessed a near-sweep by the LDF, which secured 12 out of the 13 seats. The UDF managed to win only 1 seat, despite several close contests.

• LDF (12 Seats): Chelakkara (SC): K Radhakrishnan (CPM), Kunnamkulam: A C Moideen (CPM), Guruvayoor: N K Akbar (CPM), Manalur: Murali Perunelly (CPM), Wadakkanchery: Xavier Chittilappilly (CPM), Ollur: K Rajan (CPI), Thrissur: P Balachandran (CPI), Nattika (SC): C C Mukundan (CPI), Kaipamangalam: E T Taison Master (CPI), Irinjalakuda: R. Bindu (CPM), Puthukkad: K K Ramachandran (CPM), Kodungallur: V R Sunil Kumar (CPI)
• UDF (1 Seat): Chalakkudy: T J Saneesh Kumar Joseph (INC)

Ernakulam
Of the 14 seats in Ernakulam district, the UDF is projected to win 12 to 14 seats, the LDF 0 to 2, and the NDA none. In Kunnathunad, UDF's V P Sajeendran is likely to win, defeating incumbent MLA P V Sreenijin and Twenty20 candidate Babu Divakaran. In Kalamassery, Minister P Rajeev, who is once again facing UDF's V A Abdul Gafoor, is likely to have a slight edge.

In 2021, the UDF maintained its dominance in Ernakulam by winning 9 out of 14 seats, while the LDF secured 5.

• UDF (9 Seats): Perumbavoor: Eldose P Kunnapillil (INC), Angamaly: Roji M John (INC), Aluva: Anwar Sadath (INC), Paravur: V D Satheesan (INC), Thripunithura: K Babu (INC), Ernakulam: T J Vinod (INC), Thrikkakara: P T Thomas (INC)* (His wife Uma Thomas won from the seat in the byelection following his demise), Piravom: Anoop Jacob (KC-J), Muvattupuzha: Mathew Kuzhalnadan (INC)
• LDF (5 Seats): Kalamassery: P Rajeev (CPM), Vypeen: K N Unnikrishnan (CPM), Kochi: K J Maxy (CPM), Kunnathunad: P V Sreenijin (CPM), Kothamangalam: Antony John (CPM)

Idukki
Contrary to last time, the UDF is likely to win in 3 to 5 seats in Idukki this time, as opposed to 0-2 seats for LDF. In 2021, the LDF performed strongly, winning 4 out of 5 seats, leaving the UDF with only one seat. In the Idukki constituency, UDF's Roy K Paulose is likely to defeat Minister Roshy Augustine.

• LDF (4 Seats): Devikulam: A Raja (CPM), Udumbanchola: M M Mani (CPM), Idukki: Roshy Augustine (KC-M), Peerumade: Vazhoor Soman (CPI)
• UDF (1 Seat): Thodupuzha: P J Joseph (KC)

Kottayam
In Kottayam, the UDF is likely to win 7-9 seats and the LDF 0-2, the survey predicts. In Poonjar, UDF's M J Sebastian and LDF's Adv Sebastian Kulathunkal are expected to be locked in a tight contest, with no clear advantage for either candidate. In Changanassery, UDF's Vinu Jacob is seen to have an edge over sitting MLA Job Michael. In Pala, UDF's sitting MLA Mani C Kappen is likely to have an edge over LDF's Jose K Mani and NDA's Shone George.

In the 2021 elections, the LDF made significant gains in this traditional UDF heartland, securing 5 out of the 9 seats. The UDF won 4 seats.

• LDF (5 Seats): Vaikom (SC): C K Asha (CPI), Ettumanoor: V N Vasavan (CPM), Changanassery: Adv Job Maichil (KC-M), Kanjirappally: Dr N Jayaraj (KC-M), Poonjar: Adv Sebastian Kulathunkal (KC-M)
• UDF (4 Seats): Pala: Mani C Kappen (NCK)*, Kaduthuruthy: Adv Mons Joseph (KC), Kottayam: Thiruvanchoor Radhakrishnan (INC), Puthuppally: Oommen Chandy (INC)**

** Mani C Kappen contested as a UDF-backed independent after leaving the LDF

** Following the demise of Oommen Chandy, his son Chandy Oommen (UDF) won the Puthuppally byelection in 2023 with a record margin.

Manorama News C-Voter mega survey: North Kerala results
The first part of the survey results released on Sunday indicated a clear advantage for the LDF in Kasaragod and Kannur. In contrast, the UDF is projected to perform strongly across all three constituencies in Wayanad. In Kozhikode, the LDF appears set to lose some of the dominance it enjoyed in 2021. Of the 13 seats in the district, where it had previously won 11, the Left Front is now projected to secure between 6 and 8 seats. Meanwhile, the UDF is set to dominate Malappuram, facing little challenge this time.

The Manorama News C–Voter survey is one of the largest pre-poll opinion surveys conducted in Kerala so far, with participation from 89,693 respondents. The survey ensured representation across all 140 Assembly constituencies, regions, and demographic groups. The remaining results will be broadcast by Manorama News on Monday and Tuesday.

The sample for the opinion poll was collected between March 14 and 26. In addition, tracker and snap polls were conducted from December 1 to March 20. The survey was carried out in accordance with the guidelines of the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) and the norms set by the Press Council of India.