LDF not worried over Mukundhan in Nattika as Geetha Gopi motors on

Onmanorama pollmeter tracks 12 closely-fought constituencies across different phases of campaign: Nemom, Manjeshwar, Palakkad, Kunnathunad, Pala, Kottarakkara, Peravoor, Thripunithura, Ambalappuzha, Taliparamba, Payyanur and Nattika. This is the second part on Nattika (published on April 3) where Onmanorama captures emerging trends from ground-level feed. Read the first part here. 

Kochi: Just a few weeks ago, BJP workers in the coastal constituency of Nattika in Thrissur were knocking on doors with a singular mission: collecting one lakh signatures to “reject” sitting MLA CC Mukundhan for his alleged failure to develop the constituency. Today, those same workers are returning to the same doorsteps, folding their hands and asking voters to elect the very man they just finished blacklisting.

“BJP workers are visiting the same houses where they collected signatures against Mukundhan, now asking for votes for him,” says Subair, a fisherman at Nattika beach. “Residents are mocking them, asking if they think we are fools. A few weeks ago, he was ‘unfit,’ and now he’s their saviour? The workers have no answers,” Subair told Onmanorama.

This surreal political irony is the heartbeat of the high-voltage drama unfolding in Nattika. Following his dramatic expulsion from the CPI and subsequent jump to the saffron camp, Mukundhan has turned this traditional Left fortress into a volatile three-cornered battlefield. Yet, as the dust settles in the final leg of the campaign, a deep-dive analysis of the ground pulse suggests that while the “Mukundhan factor” has bruised the Left, the UDF eyes an upset victory in the chaos, taking advantage of the vote bank splits. However, the LDF’s foundation remains formidable despite cracks and maintains an edge.

BJP’s gamble faces internal resistance
Mukundhan’s dramatic switch from CPI to BJP was meant to reshape the electoral arithmetic, combining NDA votes with his personal goodwill and a “victim of party politics” narrative. The BJP hoardings project him as “Nishkalanganaya CC, Nerinte Porali” (the innocent CC, a warrior of truth), banking on his perceived clean image. That perception has some traction.

“Mukundettan is a good man, not corrupt. The LDF should have given him another chance. Many who know him personally will still vote for him,” said Kannan, an LDF sympathiser and autorickshaw driver in Thriprayar.

The BJP is also encouraged by its 2024 Lok Sabha performance, where actor-politician Suresh Gopi secured a lead of over 10,000 votes in the constituency.
Yet, the strategy is facing resistance within its own ranks.

“For five years we worked against Mukundhan. Now suddenly he is our candidate. Don’t we have leaders of our own?” asked Antony Raju, a lottery seller in Valappad, reflecting unease among cadres.

Ground feedback indicates this contradiction could blunt the BJP’s momentum, even if Mukundhan manages to cut into the LDF’s vote share.

LDF banks on cadre, counters ‘clean image’
For the LDF, the battle has quickly turned emotional and ideological. Mukundhan is being portrayed as a “traitor” who abandoned party values, a message that appears to be resonating strongly among core CPI workers.

“In 2021, we worked hard and made him MLA. Denying a seat may have hurt him, but how can he join the BJP? We feel betrayed and will not let him win,” said Bilmritha, a CPI worker in Kothakulam.

At the same time, the CPI is actively countering Mukundhan’s “clean image” narrative by highlighting alleged underperformance.

“He focused on things like bus stops and high-mast lights. Beyond that, there was no significant development despite the pushing warning. He also stayed away from party structures and violated discipline repeatedly,” said KK Joby, LDF mandalam committee treasurer.

Despite the turbulence, the LDF’s deep organisational network and historical dominance continue to provide a strong cushion. The constituency’s consistent trend of rising victory margins, especially a huge 28,431-vote win in 2021, remains a critical buffer.

Development debate fuels anti-incumbency talk
Development has emerged as a central campaign issue, cutting across party lines. Voters point to long-pending demands such as the Thriprayar bus stand, a new bridge, and poor road infrastructure. A ₹1 crore park-cum-commercial project at Nattika beach, constructed during Geetha Gopi’s second tenure as MLA, has also become a talking point.

“It’s abandoned now and has become a hub of anti-social activities. There is a lack of real development here. So voters are confused about whom to vote for,” said Navas, a fisherman in Kothakulam.

This sentiment is creating a subtle undercurrent against both the LDF and Mukundhan, opening space for a third player - Sunil Laloor of the UDF.

UDF senses ‘perfect storm’
Amidst the LDF-BJP crossfire, the UDF candidate, Adv Sunil Laloor, has emerged as a serious threat. Despite his 2021 loss, Laloor has spent five years on the ground, championing local grievances, building a strong local presence despite his 2021 defeat by raising development issues and staying active in constituency politics. That familiarity appears to be working in his favour. So the UDF believes the current churn presents a rare opportunity to breach the Left fortress.

“We have seen both Geetha Gopi and Mukundhan over the last 15 years and what they had done. Many feel Laloor should be given a chance. He is well known to people,” said Shine, a voter from Puthenpeedika in Anthikkad, a CPI stronghold.

The UDF is also aggressively targeting Mukundhan’s political shift, portraying it as opportunism.

“He tried to get support from us initially, but local leaders opposed any move to back Mukundhan. He then joined the BJP and is now their candidate. This is nothing but greed for power,” said Jyothikumar, Congress mandalam secretary.

Party leaders believe Laloor could benefit from vote leakage in both the LDF and the NDA camps.

“This time we have a real chance. Laloor can attract votes from both sides,” said Shivaji, UDF mandalam vice-president in Thanniam.

Tightening race, but LDF holds edge
As the campaign enters its final stretch, Nattika is witnessing an unusually competitive triangular contest.

Mukundhan’s entry has undoubtedly dented the LDF’s comfort zone and elevated the BJP from the margins. Simultaneously, the UDF has gained momentum, positioning itself as the primary beneficiary of any split in traditional vote banks. Yet, the scale of the LDF’s historical advantage continues to loom large.

What was once a safe seat is now a contest of margins, but unless the undercurrents translate into a decisive shift, Nattika is likely to remain red, albeit with a significantly reduced majority.
Read the first part here.