Analysis | After local body rout, BJP persists with Christian faces in Kottayam, that may not be enough

BJP banks on Christian votes to fuel its ambition in Central Kerala. The plan fell through, quite badly, in the local body elections 2025. The Christian candidates fielded by the BJP couldn't make a mark. The party has however acknowledged that the mission is multi-pronged and long term. Three Christian candidates in key constituencies in Kottayam in the assembly elections reflect this objective and any outcome will be closely watched by the BJP strategists.

While the choice of candidates was driven by a calibrated social outreach, the party is facing unexpected challenges in these regions.

The BJP has fielded former Kerala Congress (M) leader and ex-MLA P C George in Poonjar, his son Shone George in Pala and Union Minister George Kurien in Kanjirappally- all constituencies where Christian voters account for roughly 45 to over 50 per cent of the electorate.

For years, the BJP has sought to expand its outreach among Christian communities in Kerala through engagement with Church leaders, participation in religious events such as Easter and Christmas, and by igniting a sense of fear against Muslims.

In the current election as well, political narratives from previous years have resurfaced. An incident from 2021 continues to be referenced in campaign discourse. That year, Pala Bishop Joseph Kallarangatt sparked controversy with remarks alleging the existence of “narcotic jihad” or “drug jihad” as a method used to target non-Muslim youth.

The remarks were enough to stir sharp reactions from sections of the Muslim community, with the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) staging protests demanding action against the Bishop. The BJP and Sangh Parivar organisations took it as an opportunity, condemning the protests and criticised the ruling CPM, pointing to its local-level political engagement with the SDPI in Poonjar, calling it a "grave threat" and a betrayal of the Christian community.

The BJP has since sought to leverage the controversy in its political messaging. The induction of P C George, who has faced backlash over alleged hate speech against Muslims, is seen as a strategy to consolidate Christian votes.

"The impact of these narratives was visible during the initial phase of campaigning in Pala, where Shone George referred to the issue while addressing voters," residents in Pravithanam told Onmanorama.

In Poonjar and Kanjirappally, the presence of a significant Muslim population adds another layer to the electoral contest. The SDPI and Welfare Party claim to hold around 15 per cent of the vote in Poonjar, with their sentiment strongly against P C George. “Whoever secures these votes has a strong chance of winning in Poonjar,” said Dr Vinu J George, Assistant Professor, KE College, Mannanam.

At the same time, the Christian votes, estimated at more than 50 per cent in Poonjar, is split across the three fronts. Congress candidate Sebastian M J and KCM’s incumbent Sebastian Kulathunkal both retain sections of this support base along with George.

BJP's strategy to field George is rooted in his past electoral strength. In 2016, he won Poonjar as an independent with a margin of 27,820 votes, drawing support from both Christian and Muslim communities. He also enjoys strong personal relations in Poonjar and also boasts the support of hardline Christian groups as well.

However, the political landscape appears to have shifted. George’s recent remarks critical of sections of the Christian community and Church leadership have unsettled some voters who had earlier backed him. "Even the hard line believers are thinking twice to vote for him after his remarks targeting church leaders," said Amal Jose, a voter in Poonjar.

In neighbouring Kanjirappally, where the BJP and the RSS have a relatively strong organisational presence, the contest presents a different dynamic. The party has fielded Union Minister George Kurian, an RSS affiliate and a Christian face, in a bid to consolidate its traditional vote base while making inroads into the Christian electorate.

In the 2016 and 2021 Assembly elections, BJP candidates V N Manoj and former Union Minister Alphons Kannanthanam secured nearly 30,000 votes each. Party leaders expect Kurien to secure this core vote, along with support from sections of Christian voters. His campaign, centred on development and backed by central government initiatives, has found some traction among voters.

However, the recent Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Amendment Bill, 2026 (FCRA), has triggered protests from sections of Church leadership, who view it as an infringement on minority rights. While BJP leaders have sought to clarify that the law is not targeted at Christians, a degree of unease persists among sections of the community. The fact that the bill has been temporarily put on hold may not make much difference.

Local BJP leaders, however, downplay the impact of the issue. “Common voters will not be influenced by this. They will vote for the BJP,” said Anilkumar Manjaplackal, a BJP panchayat member.

Moreover, the constituency also has several panchayats with a significant Nair population, where sections aligned with the RSS are expected to back Kurian. At the same time, the BJP’s efforts to expand its support among Christians are still evolving and face structural challenges.

On the other side, the UDF’s Rony K Baby is expected to attract a substantial share of Christian votes, while incumbent MLA N Jayaraj of KCM also retains a strong support base. With Christian votes unlikely to consolidate behind a single candidate, the split could prove decisive in shaping the outcome, according to Vinu.

In Pala, the contest between the UDF’s Mani C Kappen and the KCM’s Jose K Mani has turned into a neck-and-neck fight, with Shone expected to secure more than 30,000 votes. Both the LDF and UDF camps acknowledge his growing influence. Shone’s appeal extends beyond that of a typical BJP candidate, and he has also managed to attract support from a section of Christian voters.

Though the church is backing Jose K Mani in Pala, Kappen won the seat in 2021 with a margin of around 15,000 votes, indicating a lack of consolidation among community voters. A similar split in votes is expected this time as well, with all three candidates likely to share the Christian vote base.

However, BJP still has to find a way to address the concerns surrounding the FCRA Bill, as well as abate apprehensions over reported attacks on Christian missionaries in several parts of North India where the saffron party is in power.

However, the BJP is pulling out all the stops to woo community votes. The decision to field the Prime Minister himself for campaigning in Pala—though later shifted to Thiruvalla due to security concerns—underscores the importance the party attaches to Kottayam. Moreover, the decision to field a Union Minister in the region sends a clear message that it's a chance to have a direct link to Delhi.