Analysis | Spike in voter turnout signals wave or hung verdict?

The tentative polling percentage of 78.27, though way below the Election Commission’s target of 85%, reflects either of two things: intense three-way polarisation that could throw up even a hung verdict or a wave in favour of any of the two major fronts.

This turnout is also the fourth highest in the history of Kerala. In 2021, the turnout was 75.39 per cent.

A fraction of the high voter turnout can be attributed to the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) process conducted in Kerala from November 4 to December 4 last year. The SIR exercise had whittled down the number of voters in Kerala by 3,60,816; if the number of voters was 2,75,03,768 in 2021, it fell to 2,71,42,952 in 2026. Had Kerala used the 2021 voters' list, the voter turnout this time would have been 77.18 per cent

Even then, compared to 2021, an additional 9.21 lakh voted this time. If in 2021 there were 20 Assembly constituencies with more than 80% voter turnout, this time there are 42 such constituencies, more than double. 

Kannur paradox
Constituencies in central and south Kerala, where there were intense political fights, saw dramatic increases in voter turnout compared to 2021. 

For instance, the turnout in Nemom, where the BJP state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar is in a three-way contest with CPM's V Sivankutty and Congress's Sabarinathan, shot up to 80.62% from 71.49%. Vattiyoorkavu, another three-cornered fight, has seen participation rise to 76.92% from 66.19%.

In Ambalappuzha, where the CPM rebel and former minister G Sudhakaran is taking on CPM's H Salam, it has swelled to 80.75% from 76.82%. In Devikulam, where former CPM MLA S Rajendran is contesting in the BJP ticket, the turnout spiked to 77.87% from 68.53%.

Interestingly, CPM citadels in Kannur, where voter participation is traditionally high, saw a marginal drop in turnout. Payyannur's fell from 81.87% to 80.57%. Taliparamba's from 81.01% to 83.44%. In both these constituencies, CPM rebels are contesting with UDF support. Dharmadom, from where Pinarayi Vijayan is seeking validation, also saw its turnout drop from 83.33% to 81.44%.

Experts say that this could be the result of the clean-up of the electoral rolls during the SIR exercise.

1960 anti-incumbency wave
Whenever the voting percentage had shown significant surges, whether in 1960 or 1977 or 1987 or 2016, voters were either responding to momentous events that preceded the elections or were rooting for continuity, at times even both.

The 1960 elections, which saw a monster surge in turnout from 65.49% to 85.72%, came right after the Liberation Struggle in which community forces like the church and Nair Service Society joined forces with the Indian National Congress to mount a cataclysmic resistance against the radical land and education reforms of the first EMS Namboodiripad ministry. 

A coalition of Congress, Praja Socialist Party and the new entrant, Indian Union Muslim League, toppled the CPI-led EMS government. It was a wave against the CPM.

Continuity after Emergency
Forming the backdrop of the 1977 polls, when Kerala saw a near 80% turnout, was Indira Gandhi's Emergency, which in one of modern history's most perplexing political quirks had then made a positive impression on Kerala voters. 

The seven-member United Front, led by the Indian National Congress, and included within its fold parties as disparate as the CPI, Muslim League, Kerala Congress (M), Praja Socialist Party, National Democratic Party of NSS and the RSP, was restored to power, though this time Congress's K Karunakaran assumed the Chief Minister’s chair; in 1970, the Congress had provided outside support to a CPI-led government headed by C Achutha Menon. 

In contrast to 1960, this was a massive mandate for continuity. The coalition was restored with 111 seats. 

Karunakaran's mess
The 1987 surge, when turnout jumped to 80.54% from 73.51% in 1982, looked like a response to the multiplicity of controversies that erupted during the K Karunakaran tenure (1982-87).

There was the massive SFI-led backlash against the Pre-Degree Board. There was the water pipe scandal, which caused internal rupture even within the Congress. Then there were the allegations of corruption against electricity minister Balakrishna Pillai in the construction of a tunnel at Idamalayar and the sale of power to the Karnataka-based Graphite company. Most of all, there was the police atrocity at Thankamani in Idukki district.

Nonetheless, the surge did not cause a wave. And this was mainly because of the huge polarisation of votes, with the Congress even gaining 13 more seats than in 1982, better than the extra 10 seats the CPM had won. 

Anger against the government was very nearly offset by a combination of anti-Left religious and social forces. 

Solar spectacle
The most recent surge, the 2016 one, when the turnout shot up from 74.92% to 77.30%, the Oommen Chandy government was embroiled in the solar scandal, and politically, there was resentment against the perceived domination of the Muslim League. This was an anti-incumbency wave, with the LDF winning 91 seats.

Possible 2026 outcomes
The 2026 election has witnessed the fourth biggest upswing in voter turnout. If the LDF has succeeded in convincing the electorate of its development record, this could be a big mandate for continuity, like in 1977. 

On the other hand, if the various corruption scandals, allegations of the CPM's secret handshake with the BJP and social problems like the CPM's supposed attempts to stoke Islamophobia that plagued the second Pinarayi ministry had dominated the mind of the voters, this latest surge could be an anti-incumbency wave like in 1960 or 2016. 

However, if the BJP-NDA manages to corner a significant chunk of the anti-incumbency vote, this surge could also mean an indecisive verdict.