UDF wave likely in Kozhikode, tight contest for Mohammed Riyas in Beypore

The UDF is projected to make major gains in Kozhikode district in the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections, with the Manorama News–C Voter exit poll indicating a sharp reversal from the 2021 results.

The Congress-led front is expected to win between nine and 11 of Kozhikode’s 13 Assembly seats in the survey results released on Wednesday, a gain of seven to nine seats from the previous election.

The LDF, which swept the district in 2021 by winning 11 seats against the UDF’s two, is projected to be reduced to just two to four seats this time. The BJP-led NDA is unlikely to open its account in the district, according to the survey.

In terms of vote share, the UDF is projected to secure 45 per cent of the votes, five percentage points ahead of the LDF’s 40 per cent. The NDA is expected to garner 11 per cent vote share.

Among the key contests in the district, PWD Minister P A Mohammed Riyas is projected to face a tough contest in Beypore against UDF-backed independent candidate P V Anvar. The votes secured by BJP candidate K P Prakash Babu could play a decisive role in shaping the outcome in the constituency.

Kuttiady is another closely watched seat in the district, though the exit poll rates UDF candidate Parakkal Abdulla’s chances as safe, dealing a setback to CPM candidate K P Kunhammedkutty. If the projection holds, the result would mark a significant reversal from 2021, when Kunhammedkutty won the seat by a narrow margin of just 333 votes against Abdulla.

The Manorama News–C Voter exit poll survey offers the first comprehensive snapshot of voter sentiment across the state. The survey, conducted between April 9 and 24, covered 28,848 voters. The sample was carefully designed to reflect Kerala’s demographic and socio-economic diversity, improving the reliability of the projections.

The exit poll outlines the overall political trend in Kerala, with detailed district-wise insights across all 14 districts. It also decodes key battlegrounds, tracks vote share patterns, and indicates public preference for the Chief Minister’s post.

As per Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, the Election Commission of India had prohibited the conduct and publication of exit polls from 7 am on April 9, 2026, to 6.30 pm on April 29, 2026.