M A Baby urges caution on Kerala exit polls, says real verdict on May 4

CPM General Secretary M A Baby urged caution over exit poll predictions for the 2026 Kerala Assembly election, saying the actual electoral picture would emerge only after votes are counted on May 4.

Maintaining that the Left remains hopeful despite several surveys projecting an advantage for rivals, Baby said exit poll trends had gone wrong in previous elections and should not be treated as conclusive.

“I will keep my fingers crossed till May 4 afternoon to see whether the exit polls reflect the actual result. We have to wait and see,” he said.

The Kerala Assembly elections were held on April 9, with results for all 140 constituencies set to be declared on May 4. 

The Manorama News–CVoter exit poll projected a UDF victory with 82 to 94 seats, a sharp jump from the alliance’s 41-seat tally in 2021, when the LDF had won 99 seats. Other exit polls have also largely predicted an advantage for the UDF, estimating the front could secure between 70 and 80 seats, while some surveys projected the LDF at 60 to 68 seats.

Recalling the 2021 Kerala Assembly polls, Baby noted that most surveys had predicted only a narrow victory for the LDF, but the alliance eventually secured a commanding 99 seats.

He said the discrepancy highlighted the limitations of sample-based surveys and suggested that the Left remained firmly in contention, despite some projections giving the UDF a slight edge.

On leadership questions within the party, Baby said the CPM would take decisions on future roles only after the election results are announced.

His remarks echo those of other CPM leaders in Kerala, including state secretary M V Govindan.

Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Govindan expressed confidence that the LDF would return to power for a third consecutive term in the state. “We have no worries. The LDF will come to power,” he said when asked about exit polls predicting a possible UDF comeback in Kerala.

Govindan, however, pointed out that some exit polls still placed the LDF close to the majority mark. “Some surveys give us 65 to 68 seats. That is just a few seats short of the number needed to form the government,” he said.

He also dismissed projections suggesting the BJP could win between 3 and 14 seats, asserting that the saffron party would fail to open its account in the state.