Kerala Assembly election 2026 exit poll: Resurgent UDF returns with 82–94 seats, LDF at 44–56, NDA gets 1-3

Suggestive of a strong governance fatigue and anti-incumbency wave, Manorama News–C Voter exit poll results predict a return of the UDF with 82-94 seats. While this falls short of opposition leader V D Satheesan's golden figure of 100, the UDF will more than double its dismal 2021 figures.

The UDF had been decimated in 2021, with just 41 seats, as the LDF rode on its saviour image and the welfare goodies dished out during the pandemic wave. If the UDF was bulldozed across all districts save for Malappuram and Ernakulam in 2021, the exit polls project a resurgence.

UDF is set to sweep seats in most of the districts. In Thiruvananthapuram, where it could win one seat in 2021 out of 14 seats, UDF is estimated to pocket up to 6 seats this time. The UDF, which had given a rude shock to the LDF in the Kollam corporation elections in 2025, has been feisty in the assembly polls as well.

The exit polls predict the UDF will win in 5-7 seats in Kollam. While the LDF may retain seats in Thrissur and Palakkad, polls indicate a commanding UDF performance in Idukki and Kottayam.

The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) is projected to win 44–56 seats. It seems like the development pitch was silenced by allegations of a deal with the BJP.

The NDA's poll projections have gone horribly wrong, as per the exit poll results. While it went into the elections with hopes of winning over 10 seats, it may end up with 1-3 seats, all of them in Thiruvananthapuram. NDA's candidate selection and choice of alliance with Twenty20 may pose some hard questions for the leadership.

UDF, which is expected to make big gains in the Northern districts, may stutter in Palakkad and Thrissur. In 2021, the LDF had bagged 22 out of 25 seats in Thrissur and Palakkad. The exit polls predict that the LDF will hold onto its advantage in these districts. In Palakkad, LDF will win 7-9 seats, as per the exit poll results, and it will retain its hold in Thrissur, winning 9-11 seats.

The LDF faced intense fights in constituencies like Manalur and Nattika. In the Palakkad seat, where the BJP faced allegations of cash-for-vote, UDF candidate Ramesh Pisharody is slated for a comfortable win. Even with a high-pitched campaign in Palakkad, the NDA's vote share is also likely to be stuck at 16%.

In 2021, the LDF had put on a respectable show in Ernakulam, winning 5 out of 14 seats. The exit poll results for 2026 do not augur well for the Left front with projected seat numbers hovering between 0-2 and the UDF set to win 12-14 seats.

The UDF seemed poised to significantly better its vote tally in the Northern region of Kerala in the state assembly polls 2026, according to the Manorama News–C Voter exit poll results, which were declared on Wednesday. In 2021, out of the 48 seats, the UDF could win only 20 seats in the Malabar region with a vote share of 42.44%.

Going by the exit poll results, UDF's vote share will rise in Kasaragod, Kannur, Kozhikode and Wayanad. In 2021, the party's vote share was below 40% in Kasaragod, Kannur and Kozhikode. Of the total 32 seats in Kasaragod, Kannur, Kozhikode and Wayanad, UDF is projected to win a sizable share. LDF had romped home with as many as 24 seats in these four districts in 2021.

In 2026, the exit poll results present a bleak picture for the LDF, with Kannur being the sole source of consolation in the Northern districts. In Wayanad, where the LDF had trumpeted its rehabilitation measures post the landslide and poked fun at the UDF for failing to implement the housing scheme, the exit poll projects seats between 0 and 1 for the LDF, while the UDF is set to win 2-3 seats.

Manorama News–C Voter exit poll projects an impressive reversal of fortunes for the UDF in Kozhikode. In 2021, the UDF had to be content with just 2 seats while the LDF swept 11 seats with a vote share of 47.05%. This time, the UDF is estimated to bag 9-11 seats in Kozhikode, limiting LDF to 2-4 seats.

Kannur, where the LDF waged prestige battles in seats like Taliparamba and Payyannur against former comrades T K Govindan and Kunhikrishnan, offers some comfort for the front. The exit poll estimates that the LDF will win 6-8 seats in Kannur.

The exit poll predicts the UDF to bank on its dominance in Malappuram. The LDF, which managed to win 4 out of 16 seats in 2021, will be confined to 0-1 seats in 2026, with the UDF is set for a thumping win with 14-16 seats.

The Manorama News–C Voter exit poll offers the first comprehensive snapshot of voter sentiment across the state. The survey, conducted between April 9 and 24, covered 28,848 voters. The sample was carefully designed to reflect Kerala’s demographic and socio-economic diversity, improving the reliability of the projections.

Region-wise exit poll results are as follows.
Region: North Kerala
KASARAGOD

In Kasaragod district, which has five constituencies, the exit poll gives an edge to the UDF. The front is expected to win 2 to 4 seats and secure a vote share of 43%, a 7% lead over the LDF.

Seat projection: UDF (2–4), LDF (1–3), NDA (0)

Vote share: UDF (43%), LDF (36%), NDA (17%)

Hot seat: Manjeshwar
In Manjeshwar, where a keen three-cornered contest is underway, BJP leader K Surendran is projected to finish behind UDF candidate A K M Ashraf, while LDF’s K R Jayananda remains in the fray. The survey rates Ashraf as safe, with the IUML leader likely to retain the seat.

2021 results: LDF (3), UDF (2)

Constituencies & winners (2021): Kanhangad – E Chandrasekharan (CPI), Kasaragod – N A Nellikkunnu (IUML), Manjeshwar – A K M Ashraf (IUML), Trikaripur – M Rajagopalan (CPM), Udma – C H Kunhambu (CPM)

KANNUR
The LDF maintains its stronghold with a 45% vote share, but the UDF has closed the gap significantly.

Seat projection: LDF (6–8), UDF (3–5), NDA (0)

Vote share: LDF (45%), UDF (43%), NDA (8%)

Trend: LDF retains edge, but margin narrows to 2%

Constituencies: Payyannur, Kalliasseri, Taliparamba, Irikkur, Azhikode, Kannur, Dharmadam, Thalassery, Kuthuparamba, Mattannur, Peravoor

Hot seats:

• Thaliparamba: Safe for P K Shyamala (LDF)
• Peravoor: Safe for Sunny Joseph (UDF) vs K K Shailaja
• Kannur: Close between T O Mohanan (UDF) and Ramachandran Kadannappally

2021 results: LDF (9), UDF (2)

KOZHIKODE
The UDF could secure a landslide victory with 45% vote share in Kozhikode, while the LDF's seats can drop significantly.

Seat projection: UDF (9–11), LDF (2–4), NDA (0)

Vote share: UDF (45%), LDF (40%), NDA (11%)

Hot seats:
Kuttyadi: Safe for Parakkal Abdulla (UDF)
Beypore: Close contest for P A Mohammed Riyas (LDF)

Constituencies: Vadakara, Kuttiadi, Nadapuram, Quilandy, Perambra, Balusseri, Elathur, Kozhikode North, Kozhikode South, Beypore, Kunnamangalam, Koduvally, Thiruvambady

2021 results: LDF (11), UDF (2)

WAYANAD
Seat projection: UDF (2–3), LDF (0–1), NDA (0)

Vote share: UDF (49%), LDF (34%), NDA (12%)

Trend: Clear UDF advantage

Constituencies: Vadakara, Kuttiadi, Nadapuram, Quilandy, Perambra, Balusseri, Elathur, Kozhikode North, Kozhikode South, Beypore, Kunnamangalam, Koduvally, Thiruvambady

2021 results: UDF (2), LDF (1)

Key winners (2021): T Siddique (Kalpetta), I C Balakrishnan (Sulthan Bathery), O R Kelu (Mananthavady)

MALAPPURAM
Seat projection: UDF (14–16), LDF (0–1), NDA (0)

Vote share: UDF (52%), LDF (37%), NDA (6%)

Trend: Strong UDF dominance

Hot seats:

• Thavanur: Safe for V S Joy (UDF) vs K T Jaleel
• Tanur: Safe for P K Navas (UDF)

Constituencies: Nilambur, Wandoor, Eranad, Kondotty, Manjeri, Perinthalmanna, Mankada, Malappuram, Vengara, Vallikkunnu, Tirurangadi, Tanur, Tirur, Kottakkal, Thavanur, Ponnani

2021 results: UDF (12), LDF (4)

Key winners (2021): P K Kunhalikutty (Vengara), K T Jaleel (Thavanur), V Abdurahiman (Tanur), P V Anvar (Nilambur), P Ubaidulla (Malappuram)

Region: Central Kerala
PALAKKAD

Seat projection: LDF (7–9), UDF (3–5), NDA (0)

Vote share: UDF (40%), LDF (39%), NDA (16%)

Trend: Tight contest despite LDF seat edge

Constituencies: Thrithala, Pattambi, Shoranur, Ottapalam, Kongad, Mannarkkad, Malampuzha, Palakkad, Tarur, Chittur, Nenmara, Alathur

Hot seats:

• Thrithala: Safe for V T Balram (UDF)
• Palakkad: Safe for Ramesh Pisharody (UDF)
• Ottappalam: K Premkumar (LDF) is expected to defeat CPM's former leader, P K Sasi, contesting as a UDF-backed independent in a close contest.

2021 results: LDF (10), UDF (2)

Key winners (2021): M B Rajesh (Thrithala), Shafi Parambil (Palakkad), K Krishnankutty (Chittur), K Babu (Nenmara)

THRISSUR
Seat projection: LDF (9–11), UDF (2–4), NDA (0)

Vote share: LDF (39%), UDF (37%), NDA (19%)

Hot seat: Close lead for Rajan J Pallan (UDF) in Thrissur over Padmaja Venugopal (NDA)

Constituencies: Chelakkara, Kunnamkulam, Guruvayur, Manalur, Wadakkanchery, Ollur, Thrissur, Nattika, Kaipamangalam, Irinjalakuda, Puthukkad, Chalakudy, Kodungallur

2021 results: LDF (12), UDF (1)

Key winners (2021): K Rajan (Ollur), R Bindu (Irinjalakuda), A C Moideen (Kunnamkulam), T J Saneesh Kumar (Chalakudy)

ERNAKULAM
Seat projection: UDF (12–14), LDF (0–2), NDA (0)

Vote share: UDF (47%), LDF (36%), NDA (11%)

Hot seat

• Kalamassery: Marginal lead for P Rajeev (LDF) over VE Abdul Gafoor (IUML)
• Kunnathunad: Comfortable win for UDF candidate V P Sajeendran over CPM MLA P V Sreenijin.
• Thripunithura: Narrow edge for UDF’s Deepak Joy over CPM’s K N Unnikrishnan

Constituencies: Perumbavoor, Angamaly, Aluva, Kalamassery, Paravur, Vypin, Kochi, Thripunithura, Ernakulam, Thrikkakara, Kunnathunad, Piravom, Muvattupuzha, Kothamangalam

2021 results: UDF (9), LDF (5)

Key winners (2021): V D Satheesan (Paravur), P Rajeev (Kalamassery), Anwar Sadath (Aluva), K J Maxy (Kochi)

IDUKKI
Seat projection: UDF (3–5), LDF (0–2), NDA (0)

Vote share: UDF (48%), LDF (38%), NDA (9%)

Trend: UDF advantage

Hot seat: Idukki - Safe for Roy K Paulose (UDF) vs Roshy Augustine

Constituencies: Devikulam, Udumbanchola, Thodupuzha, Idukki, Peerumade

2021 results: LDF (4), UDF (1)

Key winners (2021): Roshy Augustine (Idukki), M M Mani (Udumbanchola), P J Joseph (Thodupuzha)

KOTTAYAM
Seat projection: UDF (7–9), LDF (0–2), NDA (0)

Vote share: UDF (44%), LDF (36%), NDA (15%)

Hot seat:

• Pala: Close lead for Mani C Kappen (UDF) over Jose K Mani
• Changanassery: UDF's Vinu Job is expected to get a comfortable victory over sitting MLA Job Maichil
• Poonjar: LDF's Sebastian Kulathunkal (KCM) is expected to secure a victory over PC George (NDA)

Constituencies: Pala, Kaduthuruthy, Vaikom, Ettumanoor, Kottayam, Puthuppally, Changanassery, Kanjirappally, Poonjar

2021 results: LDF (5), UDF (4)

Key winners (2021): Thiruvanchoor Radhakrishnan (Kottayam), Mani C Kappen (Pala), V N Vasavan (Ettumanoor)

Region: South Kerala
ALAPPUZHA
Seat projection: UDF (5–7), LDF (2–4), NDA (0)

Vote share: UDF (39%), LDF (38%), NDA (17%)

Hot seat:

• Ambalappuzha: Close lead for H Salam (LDF) over former CPM leader G Sudhakaran who is contesting with UDF support
• Kuttanad: LDF’s Thomas K Thomas (NCP) has a slight edge over Reji Cheriyan (UDF)

Constituencies: Aroor, Cherthala, Alappuzha, Ambalappuzha, Kuttanad, Haripad, Kayamkulam, Mavelikkara, Chengannur

2021 results: LDF (8), UDF (1)

Key winners (2021): P P Chitharanjan (Alappuzha), Saji Cherian (Chengannur), Ramesh Chennithala (Haripad)

PATHANAMTHITTA
Seat projection: UDF (2–4), LDF (1–3), NDA (0)

Vote share: UDF (38%), LDF (37%), NDA (18%)

Trend: Tight triangular contest

Hot seat:

• Aranmula: Marginal advantage for Minister Veena George (LDF)
• Adoor: Close contest between C.V. Santhakumar (UDF) and Priji Kannan (LDF) with slight advantage for former

Constituencies: Thiruvalla, Ranni, Aranmula, Konni, Adoor

2021 results: LDF (5), UDF (0)

Key winners (2021): Veena George (Aranmula), K U Jenish Kumar (Konni), Mathew T Thomas (Thiruvalla)

KOLLAM
Seat projection: UDF (5–7), LDF (4–6), NDA (0)

Vote share: UDF (43%), LDF (39%), NDA (14%)

Hot seats:

• Kottarakkara: Close for K N Balagopal (LDF)
• Kollam: Close for Bindu Krishna (UDF)

2021 results: LDF (9), UDF (2)

Key winners (2021): M Mukesh (Kollam), K N Balagopal (Kottarakkara), P C Vishnunadh (Kundara)

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM
Seat projection: LDF (6–8), UDF (4–6), NDA (1–3)

Vote share: UDF (37%), LDF (36%), NDA (22%)

Hot seats:

• Nemom: Close lead for Rajeev Chandrasekhar (NDA)
• Kazhakkoottam, Vattiyoorkavu: Marginal three-way contests

2021 results: LDF (13), UDF (1)

Key winners (2021): V Sivankutty (Nemom), Kadakampally Surendran (Kazhakkoottam), V K Prasanth (Vattiyoorkavu), M Vincent (Kovalam)

OTHER EXIT POLLS
The predictions made by other exit polls are as follows:

• Axis My India: UDF (78-90) | LDF (49-62) | BJP+ (0-3)
• Peoples Pulse: UDF (75-85) | LDF (55-65) | BJP+ (0-3)
• Vote Vibe: UDF (70-80) | LDF (58-68) | OTH (0-4)
• Peoples Insight: UDF (66-76) | LDF (58-68) | BJP+ (10-14) | OTH (0-1)