UDF dreams 2001, poor strike rate a concern, minority & women votes may give glory, not anti-incumbency

The exit poll results may have calmed the nerves. The Congress still wants a few boxes ticked, if it has to come anywhere near an unassailable majority in the Kerala assembly elections. 

The UDF is predicted to win between 75-90 seats in the various exit poll results. One concern for Congress is its strike rate in assembly elections. The Congress contested in 92 seats in 2026, while in three seats it supported the independents. 

In the past five decades of Kerala's electoral history, the strike rate of Congress (number of seats won against contested) crossed 70% only twice, in 1977 and in 2001. Kerala voters gave a thumping win for the Congress in the elections held after the emergency in 1977. It was almost like a voters' stamp of approval for the emergency period in the country. The UDF bagged 111 out of 140 seats while the Congress swept 38 out of 54 seats it had contested. 

In 2001, there was a strong anti-cumbency wave against the LDF government. The finance was in a mess. The Plus-two scandal had rocked the government. The people's planning campaign was marred by nepotism and corruption. The Congress made the most of the people's sentiments and won 99 seats. 

The Congress has always upped the strike rate, buoyed by strong voters' reactions - either to the incumbent government or to a momentous event. In 1991, it won 55 out of 91 seats contested with a strike rate of 60.4% . There was so much going against the Congress then. The IUML exited the UDF following the loss in district council elections. There was also evident dissent against the Congress (I)'s stand on the Ayodhya controversy and the Mandal Commission recommendations. The LDF expected a considerable swing of votes for its good governance.

Still, two factors swayed the votes for the UDF in 1991. The Congress stitched deals with the BJP in some assembly constituencies. The assassination of Rajiv Gandhi triggered a sympathy wave and Congress reengineered the campaign. An article published in the Economic and Political Weekly notes that it was done in such a way that it recreated the sentiments of the 1984 elections following the assassination of Indira Gandhi.

Except for these three elections, the strike rate has been below 60%. According to psephologists, the UDF may not be helped by the anti-incumbency wave much this time. "Even if all the allies win nearly 35 seats, the Congress may still have to win over 45, if the front has to bag 85-95 seats. There could be a wish among people, especially women voters, for a change. But the anti-incumbency may not be the key factor," said K M Sajad Ibrahim, Professor & Head, Department of Political Science, University of Kerala.

It implies that Congress has to improve the strike rate to 50%. In the past three elections after the 2008 delimitation, the Congress's strike rate has been below 40%. This is where the minority consolidation becomes crucial for the UDF. A survey report on the party preference of major communities and castes in Kerala, shows that in 2011, 65% Muslims and 68% Christians voted for the UDF, however this came down to 58% and 57% respectively in 2021. The LDF was the biggest gainer as its minority vote bank swelled from 31% to 39%. 

The UDF had peppered the election campaign with allegations of a CPM-BJP deal, which badly rattled the CPM. Besides, the Congress had questioned Pinarayi Vijayan's camaraderie with SNDP General Secretary Vellappally Natesan, who had been on an incessant communal rant against the IUML.

The UDF places high hopes on 28 seats which have not swung in the past elections. In 2021, there were 25 constituencies where the verdict was determined by a margin ranging between 38 to 5,000 votes. The UDF hopes that it can bag these seats comfortably this time. 

Post the delimitation in 2008, Thrissur has been off limits for the UDF. In 2016 and 2021, the UDF got a clear advantage only in Malappuram and Ernakulam districts. In other districts like Kottayam, Wayanad and Kasaragod, it has maintained a respectable position. If the party has to go above 70 seats, it has to considerably better its performance in the remaining districts. Without a wave, it will be difficult, according to the political observers. 

While the voter turnout was one of the highest in recent polls at 79.63%, the actual number of votes cast has gone down in as many as 71 constituencies. 

The Election Commission is yet to release the gender-wise turnout, however poll managers pin hopes on a high turnout of women in various constituencies. The party believes that the promises under the 'Indira guarantee', like free KSRTC bus ride for women and monthly aid of ₹1000 for female college students, may have swayed the women voters.