Analysis | Should BJP thank Cong’s weak candidates for its 3-seat win?

Kochi: The political landscape of Kerala, long defined by the alternating dominance of the LDF and UDF, has shifted its contours in the Assembly polls this time. The National Democratic Alliance, or rather the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which lost its account in Kerala in the 2021 polls, reclaimed its presence in the state legislature with three historic wins: Nemom, Kazhakoottam, and Chathannoor.

While the saffron party celebrates this as a ‘paradigm shift’ in Kerala’s politics, a deeper dive into the numbers suggests a more nuanced reality. Is this a surge of pure ideological growth, or did a perfect storm of anti-Left sentiment and weak Congress (UDF) candidates provide the NDA with a golden ladder?

In these three winning seats, the BJP’s persistence over the past decade finally reached a tipping point. By consistently finishing second, they convinced the electorate that they were the primary challenger to the Left in the respective seats.

Chathannoor: Breakthrough in Kollam
The BJP candidate B B Gopakumar’s decade-long wait ended with a victory margin of 4,398 votes. By maintaining a solid runner-up position for two consecutive terms, the party convinced voters that it was a “winnable” alternative rather than just a third-party spoiler.

In 2016, GS Jayalal (CPI) won by 34,407‬ votes after securing 67,606 votes while B B Gopakumar (BJP) secured 33,199 votes and Sooranad Rajasekharan secured 30139 votes.

In 2021 GS Jayalal (CPI) won by 17,206 votes after securing 59,296 votes while B B Gopakumar (BJP) secured 42090 and N Peethambara Kurup (INC) secured 34,280 votes.

In 2026 B B Gopakumar (BJP) won by 4,398 votes. He secured 51,923 votes while LDF’s R Rajendran (CPI) secured 47,525 votes and Sooraj Ravi (INC) secured 35,276 votes. So the NDA increased vote share in the seat to 38.04% from 30.61%.

The erosion of the Congress party's base was a major catalyst. As the UDF's local organizational structure weakened, a significant portion of its traditional anti-LDF vote bank shifted toward the BJP. In recent elections, prominent Congress leaders like Peethambara Kurup were unable to arrest this slide, leading to a “binary” contest between the CPI and BJP.

The collapse of the UDF was the primary catalyst. Voters wanting to oust CPI’s R Rajendran due to anti-Left wave saw Gopakumar as the only viable alternative especially with him being a constant presence in the seat for the past 10 years. Meanwhile, the UDF’s Sooraj Ravi failed to act as a credible anchor for anti-incumbency.

Nemom: Reclaiming lost seat
BJP state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar wrested Nemom back from the LDF by 4,978 votes. The BJP’s win in Nemom in 2026 was driven by a mix of strong leadership, organisational depth, and favourable electoral shifts. By fielding Rajeev Chandrasekhar, a high-profile leader and state party president, the BJP signalled the seat’s importance and ran a campaign centred on development and accountability. Its groundwork in the 2025 local body polls, where it won a majority of wards in the constituency, translated into robust booth-level mobilisation on polling day.

But despite similar favourable situations in 2021, K Muraleedharan’s last-minute entry as a strong UDF candidate by securing 36,524 votes and taking 25% of the vote, effectively helped the LDF’s V Sivankutty to close the BJP's account. He won by a margin of 3949 votes securing 55,837 votes against the NDA’s Kummanam Rajasekharan, who got 51,888 votes.

However, in 2026, the UDF’s KS Sabarinadhan was unable to hold that ground like Muraleedharan, allowing the BJP to consolidate the anti-LDF urban vote. So the contest effectively became bipolar between the BJP and the LDF, as the UDF’s presence weakened. Chandrasekhar capitalised on urban anti-incumbency against sitting MLA V Sivankutty, particularly over civic issues, while also consolidating support among key demographic groups traditionally receptive to the BJP. Crucially, with a weak UDF candidate, the party managed to prevent tactical voting, where UDF voters shifted to LDF to defeat BJP, which had hurt it in 2021.

Electorally, the BJP improved both its vote share and margin. After losing the seat in 2021, it reclaimed Nemom in 2026 with a margin of 4,978 votes, increasing its vote share to 40.75%, reflecting a steady consolidation of its base and improved voter conversion compared to previous elections. However, had the UDF fielded a stronger candidate who could garner around 25% votes, then the situation might have been different.

Kazhakoottam: A photo-finish victory
The BJP’s 2026 victory in Kazhakoottam stands out as one of its most significant gains, as V Muraleedharan narrowly unseated three-time MLA and former minister Kadakampally Surendran in a closely fought contest by a razor-thin 428 votes. The campaign was heavily shaped by a “faith” and Sabarimala women entry protests and the gold theft, with the BJP targeting Surendran’s tenure as Devaswom Minister when the issues took place.

Beyond messaging, the BJP’s win was built on strong organisational groundwork. After gaining momentum in previous elections, the party executed a focused booth-level strategy and successfully prevented the tactical consolidation of UDF votes behind the LDF.

However, what added to their victory was the UDF candidate – Congress’s T Sarath Chandra Prasad – who was unable to mount a significant challenge, resulting in a three-way split that ultimately favoured the BJP.

Electorally, the shift is stark. In 2016, Kadakampally Surendran secured 50079 votes and won the seat by a majority of 7,347 votes. V Muraleedharan bagged 42732 votes. The UDF’s MA Vaheed got 38602 votes.

In 2021, Kadakampally Surendran secured 63690 votes and won the seat by a majority of 23497. Sobha Surendran secured 40193 votes. The UDF’s SS Lal bagged 32995 votes.

In 2026, Muraleedharan secured 46564 votes and Kadakampally Surendran got 46136 votes. The UDF’s T Sarathchandra Prasad got 37183 votes. The NDA vote share increased to 35.39% from 29.06%.

The BJP emerged as the primary beneficiary of the anti-incumbency sentiment against the Pinarayi Vijayan government, which the UDF could not sway in its favour through Sarathchandra Prasad like it did across the state. The UDF’s weak performance further split the Opposition vote, indirectly aiding the BJP.

BJP slipping in the strongholds
Despite the three high-profile wins, a closer look at the data reveals a surprising trend: the BJP actually slipped in several key constituencies where they were previously the runner-up in 2021. This suggests that their growth is not exactly a pro-BJP growth wave, but a highly localised phenomenon.

In Manjeshwar, for instance, the NDA’s vote share dipped from 37.70% in 2021 to 36.05% this year. While the BJP increased its actual vote count, the UDF majority rose to over 29,000 because it successfully captured the votes lost by a declining LDF. A similar story played out in Palakkad, where Sobha Surendran came second but saw the party's vote share decrease from 35.34% to 33.33%, as the UDF's Ramesh Pisharody increased the winning margin to 13147 votes compared to Shafi Parambil’s win by 3859 votes in 2021.

In Kasaragod, the party retained its second position but saw its share fall from 34.88% to 31.74%. Even in Malampuzha, a traditional stronghold, the share decreased slightly from 30.68% to 30.13%. Perhaps most telling was Vattiyoorkavu, where the BJP not only saw its share slip from 28.77% to 28.68% but also lost its runner-up status entirely, with former DGP and Thiruvananthapuram corporation councillor R Sreelekha finishing in third place.

While the overall state-wide vote share of the BJP grew only marginally from 11.3% to 11.42%, a few seats showed remarkable NDA momentum outside the winner's circle.

In Thiruvalla, the NDA saw a massive performance boost. The vote share skyrocketed from 16.25% to 30.61%, with Anoop Antony pushing the sitting LDF MLA to third place. In Attingal, P Sudheer retained the second spot while increasing the NDA vote share from 25.92% to 30.54%. Even in Nattika, the BJP’s share rose from 21.96% to 28.7%, though they remained in third place despite the high-profile candidacy of rebel leader CC Mukundhan.

Failure of alliances: Twenty20 and BDJS
The 2026 results were a reality check for the NDA’s alliance strategy. The partnership with Twenty20 failed to yield the expected dividends in Ernakulam. In the Twenty20 stronghold of Kunnathunad, the NDA vote share actually dropped from 27.56% to 24.97%. Similarly, in Kodungallur, the share decreased from 18.94% to 16.18%. While Thripunithura saw an increase from 15.2% to 19.07%, it was not enough to impact the final outcome. The BDJS and other smaller partners also struggled to move the needle beyond their traditional pockets.

In Paravur, where the BDJS secured 8.17% votes for the NDA, this time the BJP candidate and former Congress leader Valsala Prasannakumar secured 12.77% votes. But none of these had any effect other than securing the usual third position.

So, the BJP’s historic 3-seat win could be a result of strategic patience meeting a weakened opposition. The party won these seats not because of a massive state-wide surge as its meagre 0.12% total growth confirms it. Instead, they won because in Chathannoor, Nemom, and Kazhakoottam, where they already had good support, the UDF candidates were not perceived as ‘strong enough’ to defeat the LDF.

Voters in these specific pockets, frustrated with the incumbent government, viewed the BJP as the only effective tool to deliver a blow to the Left. However, BJP’s consistent work in these seats made them the credible alternative. The immediate boost in 2026 was largely fuelled by a perfect storm of anti-Left sentiment and the UDF's inability to field heavyweights in these strategic battlegrounds.