Analysis | Congress breaks 35-year jinx in Kasaragod, leaves CPM with zero seats for first time

Kasaragod: Kasaragod district has witnessed a historic political reversal. On Monday, the CPM lost all its Assembly representation from the district, while the Congress returned as a winning force after a staggering 35 years.

The last time the Congress had MLAs from the district was in 1987, when Udma elected K P Kunhikrishnan, and Kanhangad elected N Manoharan. However, after their terms ended in 1991, the party failed to win a single seat in Kasaragod for over three decades. That 35-year drought ended in 2026, when the Congress won Udma through K Neelakandan and, in a major shift, Trikaripur elected a non-Left representative in Sandeep Varier for the first time.

But the outcome carried another historic twist. For the first time in the district’s electoral history, the CPM failed to win a single Assembly seat. In Udma, CPM state committee member and sitting MLA C H Kunhambu suffered a shock defeat to Neelakandan by 4,847 votes. The same constituency had earlier seen Congress heavyweight K Sudhakaran lose in 2016 to grassroots CPM leader K Kunhiraman by 3,882 votes, underlining its volatile political churn.

In Trikaripur, CPM district secretariat member and local boy V P P Musthafa lost to Sandeep Varier, who reached the constituency barely 20 days before the election. The defeat margin of 4,431 votes came as a major setback in a seat where the Left had secured a 53.71% vote share in 2021 and a winning margin of over 26,000 votes.

This time, CPM’s vote share dropped to 46.04%, while Congress surged to 48.63%, marking a decisive swing. In Udma, too, the CPM saw a decline, while Neelakandan made the biggest gain in Chemnad panchayat, a bastion of the Congress ally, Indian Union Muslim League.

In Manjeshwaram, CPM candidate and district secretariat member K R Jayananda finished a distant third behind the IUML and BJP, securing just 11.29% of the vote and losing his deposit for failing to secure one-sixth of the votes polled. This is perhaps the first time in Kerala where a candidate contesting on the CPM symbol has lost their deposit.

The Left’s only relief came in Kanhangad, where CPI leader and former district secretary Govindan Pallikkappil defeated Kerala Congress candidate Shaiji Ottapalli by 15,316 votes, preventing a complete sweep.

In Kanhangad, the CPI's victory is heavily dependent on CPM support, while Udma, and especially Trikaripur, had been expected to hold firm due to CPM's own vote base. Therefore, the reversal in the political fortunes in Udma and Trikaripur marks a significant political shift.

The results have triggered analysis within the Left camp. The Sabarimala temple gold controversy, along with anti-Muslim remarks by CPM leaders and SNDP Yogam chief Vellappally Natesan, is believed to have consolidated minority votes in key constituencies such as Udma, Trikaripur and Manjeshwar, where Muslim populations are significant.

The impact of stricter electoral roll scrutiny under SIR, which reportedly reduced duplicate and irregular entries, is also seen as a contributing factor in narrowing margins and curbing bogus voting patterns.

The election also strengthened the Indian Union Muslim League in its strongholds. In Manjeshwaram, A K M. Ashraf won by a historic margin of nearly 30,000 votes. In Kasaragod, Kallatra Mahin Haji recorded the biggest victory margin in the constituency’s history, at 22,698 votes.

The BJP too faced setbacks. In Kasaragod, district president M L Ashwini secured 31.74% of the vote, a drop of 3.14 percentage points. Former state president K Surendran suffered his fourth consecutive defeat in Manjeshwaram, this time with his widest margin of loss yet.