Analysis | 63, a bad omen for Congress and High Command making it worse?

Delay in choosing a Chief Minister should hardly bother the Congress. It had taken as long as 21 days in 1960 to pick Pattom Thanupillai of the Praja Socialist Party as the Kerala Chief Minister. What really matters is the number. The Congress won the 1960 election and the Kerala Assembly polls 2026 with the same number of seats- 63. This number had set off trouble back then.

Together, the Congress, the Muslim League and the Praja Socialist Party (PSP) had won 94 out of 126 seats in 1960. Thanupillai's appointment took longer than expected due to discord within the Congress. After three weeks, Thanupillai of the PSP was sworn in as the Chief Minister, although his party had won only 20 seats. R Sankar, a strong contender for the top post, couldn't hold back his anger. "I was born an Ezhava and hence I couldn't become Kerala CM," he blurted out in a meeting.

Another stalwart P T Chacko, who was made the Home Minister, fumed against Pillai and sent official letters via registered posts to the CM's office, which was next to his cabin. Within two years, the Congress forced Thanupillai to resign and fly to Punjab as Governor.

The Congress didn't get along well with the Muslim League either. The Congress was adamant not to give a Cabinet berth to the League. Instead, M V Seethi Sahib was made the Speaker. When Sahib died in 1961, Congress insisted that one more MLA from the League should not become the Speaker. Later, they changed the condition -- if somebody is willing to quit League membership, then the Speaker post can be offered. C H Mohammed Koya became the Speaker after resigning from the League. "We made the League take off the skull cap," a section of Congress workers boasted.

Six decades later, history seems to be repeating itself in strikingly similar ways. For the Congress High Command, just one factor seems to matter -- 63 MLAs and the support they hold for three leaders -- K C Venugopal, Ramesh Chennithala and V D Satheesan. In the process, the 23 lakh votes polled by the Muslim League and 62 lakh won by the Congress in the 2026 Assembly polls under Satheesan's ‘Team UDF’ tag have faded away.

Since May 4, when the results of the state Assembly polls were declared, the Congress High Command has held a string of meetings, made conflicting statements and caused serious confusion among cadres. The Muslim League has made its displeasure clear over the furore over the Chief Minister’s post.

Congress MLA Mathew Kuzhalnadan's reminder that the League shall not intervene in Congress's internal matters was also not taken kindly. More than once, the League has shown where it stands and the clout it holds. It was with the League's support that the Congress registered remarkable wins in Malappuram and Kozhikode. The secular collective projected by the UDF spurred mass consolidation of minority votes.

When the High Command dithered at a crucial decision, it left holes in the secular fabric and fractured a united front. Irrespective of the final call, the scars will be felt. Political observers feel that the High Command should have nipped such trends at the earliest. "The party takes a decision that MPs shall not contest the elections. Then, after the results turn out good, one person tries to make a backdoor entry, breaking all conditions. If this is possible in the beginning itself, people would imagine that anything could be possible in the next five years. This raises serious ethical and political questions. If there was a secret pact, the Congress should make it clear," veteran journalist N P Chekutty wrote in the article published on Samastha's mouthpiece 'Suprabhatham'.

If the High Command chooses Venugopal, two by-elections will be necessitated. This would lead to a governance stasis as the model code of conduct will follow. The Congress can hardly set things in motion. Already, the SSLC results' declaration has been put on hold, which will further delay the Plus One admission process. Official transfers and other administrative matters are also pending. The voters had bought the Indira Guarantee, which the Congress trumpeted during the campaign, and this will be kept in the freezer for a long time, if the government is pushed into election mode repeatedly.

Writer and political observer Damodar Prasad said that this amounts to betrayal. "Satheesan not just fielded allies, he mobilised anti-Pinarayi forces which resulted in the huge mandate. Otherwise, the sentiments against the LDF would have fragmented and BJP would have benefited. The UDF represented mass aspirations. The High Command, with its strange thought process, makes people feel like they are betrayed. Instead of correcting K C Venugopal, it has collaborated with him to lead to this situation. There is a lack of neutrality when someone like Venugopal, who is in fact part of the High Command, wants to go through the same process he has overseen for other states," said Prasad.

Sources said that the very decision to consult with former KPCC leaders and working presidents also hints at a lack of certainty and courage. "There shouldn't have been a second choice; instead, High Command made it complex. Now it seeks opinions not on a person to be picked but on how to present a decision, if it is against popular mandate and how the party can face bypolls," a Congress sympathiser said.