August, 5, 2019 will go down in history as a turning point for the state of Jammu & Kashmir. The scrapping of Article 370 (except the first clause) by the President Ramnath Kovind (yet to be signed) would go to undo the affect that to very many was a historical blunder.
The article had provided a special status to the state and its assembly. In place since 1949, it gave J&K the power to have its own constitution, flag, and autonomy over all matters except for certain policy areas such as foreign affairs and defence.
By virtue of a notification presented to the President for his signatures, the constitution of India now becomes fully applicable to J&K like any other state.
Another document called Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Bill was introduced the same day in Rajya Sabha.
The new legislative effort would bifurcate the state into two union territories. In the days ahead, J&K will have a legislature while Ladakh will be without one.
The announcement by Home Minister Amit Shah, though not wholly unexpected, has come as a big shock.
The prevailing internal security situation in the valley and unabated violence had led to massive induction of paramilitary forces and detention of a few top leaders within the state apart from shutting down internet and other communications.
Care was taken to mitigate discomfort to the tourists and pilgrims by asking them to leave.
The move, apparently, aims to derive a political benefit.
The order has met with expected protest and support along the political lines.
National Conference's Omar Abdullah viewed it as a 'betrayal of trust' and 'an aggression against people of the State'.
Former Chief Minister, Mehbooba Mufti said “Today marks the darkest day in Indian democracy”.
The big mandate enjoyed by the Modi government has apparently prompted it to take the big step. Opposition leaders in J&K as also elsewhere have laid bare their disgust and threatened to challenge the matter in court.
According to them, their special status was not a gift bestowed upon them but was a right guaranteed by Parliament.
It was a contract entered into by J&K leadership and India, which stands breached.
On the other hand, the treasury benches thundered that Article 370 was only a temporary provision.
Since Article 35A pertaining to right to buy property was based on Article 370 and now stands scrapped, people from outside J&K will also be able to buy property in the state and settle there.
Under the Reorganisation Bill, the new territories of J&K and Ladakh may follow the power sharing structure on the lines of either Delhi or Puducherry.
Central law will no longer require the approval of the Srinagar legislature to draft and enact laws.
The Supreme Court may have to deal with urgent petitions demanding judicial intervention and review.
The authority, timing, motive and equity may all be cited to oppose the order.
The other grounds to oppose may relate to ignoring the wishes of population, likelihood of increase in human rights violations and upsetting the decades-old demographic profile. All these and many more may be used by the opposition as planks to criticize the order.
The presence of additional security forces may be portrayed as an attempt to intimidate the locals by occupation troops.
On its part, the union will try to assert its validity and defend the move.
Extraordinary measures in the past like military action in Goa, merger of Sikkim and Triple Talaq, etc did not encounter any interference from the judiciary.
In any case, an upturning of implementation by way of a stay by the apex court is unlikely without detailed arguments.
The security implications will require close and careful watch.
The situation is obviously being closely monitored by our immediate neighbour. Pakistan is likely to embark on a major diplomatic offence.
It may try to enlist the support of US, EU, West Asia and China apart from other countries.
UNMOG posted on its side may actively start recording and reporting armed encounters across the border.
However, Islamabad may choose to refrain from any military retaliation, save artillery shelling, aggressive patrolling and perhaps denial of air space.
It may increase its logistic and operational support to the anti-nationals to escalate violence.
Acts of terror may be instigated and started at places beyond J&K. The diplomatic efforts offences may also go to support opposition and divisive elements within India.
The Order by itself and its aftermath in the form of law & order developments, noisy court battles and the diplomatic skirmishes may continue to escalate the summer temperatures despite hopes of cooling monsoon showers.
(The author is former Judge Advocate-General of the Indian Army)
