Israel election: Netanyahu remains caretaker PM as counting continues; what happens if no bloc wins majority?

As vote counting in Israel's general election continues, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies appear poised to win the most seats in parliament, but neither his bloc nor the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot has a clear path to a majority.

With nearly 90 per cent of votes counted, projections by Israel's three main broadcasters showed Netanyahu's bloc of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties winning 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, ahead of the 48 projected for Eisenkot's opposition bloc.

Parties representing Arab Israelis were projected to win a historic 19 seats, potentially giving them a decisive role in government formation. However, opposition leader Eisenkot faces difficulties securing their support, as many Jewish political leaders oppose cooperation with Arab-led parties.

Netanyahu appeared likely to remain Israel's caretaker prime minister for now, after receiving stronger-than-expected support among Jewish voters. Although his bloc has lost its parliamentary majority, his opponents face significant challenges in assembling a coalition to replace him.

The final vote count is expected by Thursday evening, while the official results are due to be published on November 4.

Why is vote counting complicated?
Israel uses a proportional representation system in which parliamentary seats are allocated to national party lists according to their share of the vote. Parties must secure at least 3.25% of the national vote to qualify for seats in the Knesset.

With around a dozen parties considered capable of crossing the electoral threshold, the final vote tally and allocation of seats could take time. Small changes in the vote share of parties close to the threshold can affect the distribution of seats across parliament.

When will the results be announced?
Israel's Central Election Committee was still counting votes on Wednesday, with definitive results expected by Thursday.

The committee must also count hundreds of thousands of ballots cast by Israeli soldiers, diplomats serving abroad and other eligible voters who could not vote at their designated polling stations. These ballots are counted separately and require additional verification.

The partial results followed exit polls released by major Israeli television channels. While exit polls offer an indication of the relative strength of the parties, they cannot reliably predict the precise outcome, particularly in Israel's fragmented political system.

The final tally is expected by October 30, while the official election results are scheduled to be published on November 4.

What happens after the results are published?
Once the final results are announced, President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders on their preferred candidate for prime minister. He will then nominate the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government.

The nominee will have up to 42 days to assemble a governing coalition.

No single party in Israel has ever won an outright majority in the Knesset. Governments are therefore formed through coalitions of multiple parties, and negotiations can take weeks.

With 61 seats required for a majority, every seat matters. Smaller parties can wield considerable influence by supporting a candidate who needs their backing to form a government.

If the nominee fails to form a government, another candidate may be given the opportunity. If no candidate succeeds, Israel could be forced to hold another election, with the existing cabinet continuing as a caretaker government.

(With Reuters inputs)