Mumbai: The Reserve Bank is expected to administer another dose of lending rate cuts to boost the revival process from the Covid-19-induced economic downturn.
Economists and industry experts pointed out that despite an elevated level of inflation, growth concerns will necessitate the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee to go in for another rate cut.
The MPC is expected to release its resolution on the monetary policy after their meet August 4-6.
The easing, if administered, will theoretically allow commercial banks to reduce their lending rates, thereby, helping both consumers and the industry to get cheaper finance.
Subsequently, the increased money flow in the hands of consumers will help to boost sales and demand, and for the industry, provide for higher capital investment on the back of lower cost.
Nonetheless, the retail inflation data has been at an elevated level during June, and this might be a key factor for dissuading the MPC from going in for a large rate cut.
"It would be a tough decision for the MPC, as inflation has risen on account of supply chain disruption. 'Life and Livelihood' - both are at stake," Sunil Kumar Sinha, Principal Economist, India Ratings & Research, told IANS.
"However, we reckon that the accommodative stance will be maintained."
Data showed that India's June retail inflation stood at an elevated level.
The retail or consumer price index stood at 6.09 per cent in June. The urban CPI stood at 5.91 per cent and rural at 6.20 per cent.
As per the data, retail inflation level has reached the upper limit of the medium-term CPI inflation target of 4 per cent. The target is set within a band of +/- 2 per cent.
Besides inflation, other economic indicators showed decline in production, and demand and in essence, no revival of economic growth due to localised lockdowns, supply chain disruptions and labour supply mismatches.
The latest macro-data points including Index of Eight Core Industries and Index of Industrial Production have shown easing in the downward trend, but they still remain deep in the red on a YoY basis.
Consequently, few rating agencies have revised downwards their forecast of India's 2020-21 GDP contraction to 10 per cent from an earlier estimate of 5 per cent.
Earlier this month, a SBI Ecowrap report said there is adequate scope for repo rate to decline by at least 100 basis points from the current levels.
On May 22, the RBI's MPC had reduced lending rates and extended the moratorium period for interest payments on term loans to mitigate the combined impact of demand compression and supply-side disruption on account of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The MPC that time reduced the repo rate by 40 basis points to 4 per cent from 4.40 per cent.
Consequently, the reverse repo rate has automatically been reduced to 3.35 per cent from 3.75 per cent.
