In the strange game of power politics in India, the end of one uncertainty can mark the beginning of another. That is exactly what has happened on Wednesday in Karnataka as the Supreme Court pronounced its judgment upholding the disqualification of 17 MLAs from the Congress and JD(S) for their defection to the BJP. As the apex court at the same time allowed these disqualified MLAs to contest the by-elections caused by their exit, the uncertainty over these MLAs remaining disqualified for the rest of the term has come to end. Now, the attention has turned to byelections to be held on December 5 for 15 of the 17 seats vacated by the disqualified MLAs who will now seek re-election as BJP candidates. Unless the BJP manages to get most of them re-elected, the fledgling Government of Chief Minister B S Yediyurappa will become shaky.
The BJP has 106 members in the 224-member Karnataka Assembly, seven seats short of a simple majority. Despite this, it could form the government in July this year after toppling the Congress-JD(S) coalition government headed by Chief Minister Kumaraswamy as the effective strength of the Assembly stood reduced at 207 after the resignation and subsequent disqualification of the 17 coalition MLAs. Post the byelections on December 5, the effective strength of the assembly will increase to 222. Then the BJP would need 112 members for a simple majority in the House. This means the BJP will have to win at least seven of the 15 seats. However, just this much will guarantee only a wafer-thin majority. To be comfortable, the party needs to win all the 15 seats.
On the face of it, the BJP has no reason to worry. All the 17 disqualified MLAs – 13 from the Congress, three from the JD(S) and one independent, whom the BJP bought over in its bid to topple the Congress-JD(S) coalition government, are strong leaders in their constituencies. Most of them are capable of winning elections on their own strength irrespective of the party that they are affiliated to. It was this confidence that made them join hands with the BJP that allegedly lured them with money and/or plum berths in the council of ministers. Moreover, Karnataka voters are not specially known for rejecting the defectors in byelections always. In the byelections held in 2008 under similar circumstances, more than 50 per cent of the defectors fielded by the BJP got comfortably re-elected.
However, the political test for defectors can often be much harder than the legal test. The influx of so many disqualified legislators from the opposition into the BJP has caused tremendous disquiet among the party ranks. The aspiring contestants from the saffron party have raised a banner of revolt in most of the constituencies, either openly or surreptitiously. At least two of them in northern Karnataka have been knocking at the doors of the Congress while one in a Southern constituency has been firm on contesting as an independent. The wounded Congress and the JD(S) have been making all possible efforts to exact revenge with their defectors by defeating them. True, the Congress and the JD(S) have their own internal problems to deal with but that in itself does not guarantee a smooth sailing for the BJP candidates as the constituency-level politics is getting messier by the day.
What makes the byelection scene even more muddled is a strong suspicion in the political circles that an influential section of the BJP itself is not in favour of the continuation of Yediyurappa government. Some of them have openly expressed their displeasure over fielding the defectors from the Congress and the JD(S). A video clip in which Yediyurappa himself was seen bemoaning over lack of cooperation from his Cabinet colleagues in fighting byelections went viral recently giving credence to the theory that something is brewing up within the party against Yediyurappa. There is, thus, a question mark over whether the legendary cadre-strength of the BJP will really work overtime to ensure the victory of the party candidates. What can also go against the BJP contestants this time is the government’s alleged failure to undertake effective relief work following unprecedented floods in parts of Northern Karnataka, the region which traditionally backed the BJP. All these factors suggest that the odds are little too heavy against the BJP to stay complacent and its prospects in the byelections depend on how well leaders will address these hurdles.
At the same time, a poor show in the by-election in itself need not result in the imminent fall of the government. The BJP or at least the group within the BJP which is bent upon saving the government is apparently ready with a list of some more Congress and JD(S) MLAs who are ready to defect and resign so that the uncertainty facing the government gets postponed till yet another round of byelections.
(A Narayana is an associate professor with Azim Premji University in Bengaluru. He is a policy and a political commentator)
