It now appears that 80-plus fresh COVID-19 cases a day will be the norm in Kerala for some time. For the second consecutive day, Kerala has recorded 80-plus cases.
On Wednesday, 82 tested positive. A day ago, it was 86. This is the third 80-plus day in the week. On average, there were over 70 new cases a day during the last seven days.
The official version is there is nothing to worry as long as the state could limit the infection in residents or, in other words, it could considerably block the virus from passing from returnees to the local population.
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan has constantly maintained, he repeated this during his sunset briefing on Wednesday also, that Kerala had successfully managed to keep contacts to the minimum.
Low local contacts
Of the 82 declared positive on Wednesday, 53 had come from abroad and 19 from other states. Only five had got the infection as a result of contact with imported cases.
Figures show that 995 COVID-19 cases were reported in Kerala since May 4, the day Malayalis from other states started trickling in. Of this, 117 are residents who have acquired the virus through contact. This is just about 12 per cent of those found infected since May 4.
Top health officials say Kerala should start worrying about community transmission only when the share of contacts rise to 33 per cent or more. Fact is, there is no globally accepted scientific model that demonstrates that 20 or even 30 per cent COVID-19 contact cases in a community are just not enough to set off unbridled local transmission.
Health workers and viral inflammation
Further, infected health workers are not included in the list of people infected through contacts. For instance, the chief minister said on Wednesday that five had acquired the infection through contact. And then, as a separate category, he mentioned that five health workers, too, were found positive.
Since May 4, the sentinel surveillance done to sense community transmission had picked up at least 20 positive cases among health workers - staff nurses, ASHA workers, attenders and even ambulance drivers.
If quarantine norms are rigorously observed, virus transmisson from contact cases can be effectively curbed. Not so in the case of health workers who, because of the very nature of her work, could be super-spreaders.
Case of the first positive
The ASHA worker in Chathannoor, the first health worker picked up by sentinel surveillance, was found to have passed on the virus to five people. It is not clear whether the contacts of other positive health workers have been studied in as much detail as the Chathannoor case.
If the Chathannoor case is considered the norm, these 20 health workers identified as positive since May 4 must have together infected 100 people. If no contact tracing has been done, these 100 cases would be going about their routine unaware of the virus lurking within.
They will in all probability be asymptomatic, too. The Chathannoor ASHA worker and all the five people she had infected had not shown any symptoms.
Resident super-spreaders
It is not just health workers who have no known source of infection. Such 'orphan' cases are among ordinary citizens, too. Take the case of the two remand prisoners in Thiruvananthapuram who were declared positive two days ago.
The two had roamed about so much that it is hard to say with any certainty from whom they had got seeded. Since quarantine for them was meant to be flouted, they are potential super-spreaders.
The panchayats they belong to have identified nearly 70 primary contacts for both of them. The results are awaited.
Southern districts astir
For a change, it was a southern district that had the highest number of cases on Wednesday. Thiruvananthapuram has 14 cases, it had the highest number of recoveries as well (6).
Idukki, which had largely been calm in this phase of the outbreak, has seen a sudden spike; there were nine cases on Wednesday. Malappuram has 11, Kottayam has 8, Alappuzha and Kozhikode have seven each, Palakkad, Kollam and Ernakulam have five each, Thrissur has four, Kasaragod, 3, Kannur and Pathanamthitta, two each.
There are now two districts with more than 100 active cases: Palakkad - 151, and Kannur - 113 (there were two recoveries in Kannur today). And there are four districts with more than 50 cases: Kasaragod, 97 (there were four recoveries today); Malappuram - 87; Thrissur - 63 (there was one recovery); Alappuzha - 57 (there was one recovery). Till June 2, Idukki was the only district with single-digit active cases. Now, it has 18.
The day also saw the highest number of recoveries this May: 24.
Key points from the CM's announcements:
• Keralites who are staying in other states will be received by the state. Facilities have been prepared to accommodate them. We will ensure that all directives issued by the Health Ministry are complied with.
• We had expected the surge in cases on the arrival of those coming from abroad (via Vande Bharat) and other states. Our due diligence has ensured that cases through contact are less.
• 360 flights are expected to arrive in Kerala in June. But in the first 10 days of the month, only 10 flights were scheduled. The Centre had been unable to stick to the pre-arranged scheduled, but Kerala will be ready. We will initiate the process to ensure that more flights can land in Kerala.
• 40 chartered flights too were given permission by the state to land. However, in the first ten days of the month, only 14 chartered flights have reached so far. We will be ready to receive them too. We have cleared all the hurdles for their landing here. However, we have put a limit on flights, 1: that charge more than what the Vande Bharat flights cost, 2: don't cater to the priority groups as decided by the govt
• Of the 41 lakh students, it was found that 2,64,000+ students don't have facilities to continue studies online.
• Special arrangements will be made to ensure that all students can continue their learning.
• The first two weeks are a trial run. We will ramp up the efforts soon. By then all students will have access to learning.
• Student Devika was found dead in Malappuram. Investigation is on. CM offered his condolences.
• Preliminary study has found that 25 students in Devika's school had no access to internet. Their headmaster had assured the problems will be fixed too. Education dept will be looking into it.
• Strict action will be taken against those who harass teachers conducting online classes.
• Kerala coastal belt will be off-limits to trawlers for 52 days from June 9 to July 31.