Analysis | Our way or the highway, Nilambur voters tell LDF

During the early stages of the counting on Monday, it looked like the swagger of the rebel would mask the embarrassment of the ruler. The votes diverted in the early rounds by P V Anvar, the former MLA whose resignation forced the Nilambur bypoll, made the UDF candidate Aryadan Shoukath's lead over his CPM rival M Swaraj seem insignificant. This, in turn, seemed to discredit the notion that the public deeply disapproved of the Pinarayi government. Even if Aryadan were to eventually win, it would only be a photo-finish with Shoukath feeling Swaraj's hot breath right behind his ear.

However, by the half-way stage, even while Anvar was busy pilfering votes, Aryadan pulled away to an unassailable lead. The obvious emerged out of the cloud: there is widespread anti-incumbency.

When the counting was finally wrapped up, Aryadan won by the fourth highest victory margin in the history of Nilambur Assembly polls (11,077).

To beat what pollsters call the 'ruler's burden', the CPM put in place two strategies, one seemingly constructive  and the other, regressive.

Strategy One was to play up its governance credentials, both development and welfare. Pinarayi not just bleated about major projects from GAIL (Gas Authority of India) pipeline and highways to the Vizhinjam port, he also emphasised that none of these projects would have been realised had it not been for the second chance given to the LDF government. The return of the UDF could even lead to the termination of welfare pensions, it was said. Implicit in this sales pitch was the importance of returning the LDF for the third time.

Aesthetically done ads glorifying the LDF achievements and the Chief Minister dominated mainstream newspapers, airwaves and billboards across Kerala.

The development-centric campaign seemed highly persuasive until the NH 66 portion at Kooriyad along the Ramanattukara-Kuttipuram stretch collapsed. What resulted was a domino effect. Kooriyad collapse was the first domino to fall. In quick succession, a series of cracks and faultlines were discovered along the NH 66, especially in Malabar.

The government's aggressive push to showcase its governance gains verged on the unethical when a cargo ship capsized off the Kochi coast. The Pinarayi government was reluctant to register a case against Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) even after its ship MSC Elsa 3 disgorged hazardous stuff into the ocean, endangering marine life and livelihoods of coastal folk. The MSC, by the government's own admission, was critical for the success for the Vizhinjam port and, therefore, should not be bothered too much with repair and damages. A perception then gained ground that the LDF government prioritised image over justice and fairness.

Besides, there is a local emptiness that questioned the LDF's development claim. In the place of the Nilambur bypass, long seen as the solution for Nilambur's traffic woes, is a hollow promise, nothing else. Voters would have found it hard to ignore.

CPM's Strategy Two was to assume there was Islamophobia among Hindu voters and use it to draw right-inclined Hindu votes, Ezhava votes in particular, for itself. The patently Muslim-sounding  Jamaat-e-Islami Hind (JIH) was the vampire the CPM identified to scare anti-Muslim Hindu votes away from the UDF. The CPM presented Jamaat-e-Islami's support for the UDF as a kind of doomsday event for secularism.

The concern was amusingly disproportionate as the JIH, even the CPM knew, did not have the influence to command even one per cent  votes in Nilambur.

There were inconsistencies, too. On the one hand there is outrage at the UDF's acceptance of the support offered by JIH, an organisation against which no proof of crossing constitutional or legal limits has been produced by the CPM. At the same time, the CPM seemed content with its electoral arrangement with People's Democratic Party (PDP), a Muslim group once associated with violence and bigotry. Here's another nugget that would make the CPM's indignation at the mention of Jamaat-e-Islami meaningless and hypocritical. Up north in Rajasthan, CPM's Sikar MP Amra Ram had openly expressed his gratitude for Jamaat-e-Islami's support for him in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

Yet, if the CPM went ahead and demonised JIH, it was an attempt to explore a devious strategy. When it invoked Jamaat-e-Islami, the CPM hoped that anti-Muslim voters would equate it with Muslims in general. Muslim haters among UDF or BJP voters, it was presumed, would be sufficiently delighted and would gladly shift their allegiance to the  Muslim-bashing CPM.  Fortunately for secularism, Nilambur voters saw through the Islamophobia-inspired ploy.

In contrast, the Congress, particularly opposition leader V D Satheesan, was not apologetic about the JIH support.

During the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the CPM did the opposite. It had tried to milk the anger of the Muslim community against the Citizenship Amendment Act. That fell flat and the party inferred that the gamble had cost it crucial Hindu votes.

In Nilambur, therefore, the strategy was reversed, a devious method was drawn up to lure back the Hindu votes. The ruins of this strategy is now littered all across Nilambur.

Now pendulum-like, even before the Nilambur results were out, the CPM has gone back to its original strategy of positioning itself as the only safeguard against the Sangh Parivar. Governor Rajendra Arlekar and his insistence on promoting a particular image of Bharat Mata has accelerated this shift in strategy.

Strategic drift is a sign of political weakness and incoherence. A party suffering intense anti-incumbency can easily drown in this ideological chaos. The CPM has only months to put its thinking in order.