For the first part of the Onmanorama Nialmbur bypoll survey, our reporters called up respondents (voters in Nilambur) on June 5, the last date for the withdrawal of nominations. Twelve days later on June 17, the day the campaign ended, we called up the same set of respondents with the same set of questions.

The objective was to assess whether the intense campaign period had any influence on voters, whether the candidates and their election machinery were able to persuade our respondents to change their initial opinions.

The major outcome of the first survey was that there was a definite anti-incumbency trend. After the second survey, it looks like the anti-incumbency mood has become more pronounced.

In the first survey, 45 per cent said the performance of the Pinarayi Vijayan government was the factor that will be on top of their mind when they stand before the EVMs. And among this 45 per cent, 70 per cent said the performance was poor.

In the second survey, half the respondents (50 per cent) picked the performance of the LDF government as the most decisive issue in the bypoll. And among these, more than 75 per cent said the performance was nothing to crow about.

Human-wildlife conflict was the second most prominent issue for the respondents. In the first survey, 35 per cent said the perpetual threat of wildlife attacks is the factor that will decide their pick. This time, the share of respondents who have wildlife attacks on top of their mind came down to 32.5 per cent, a drop of 2.5 per cent. But these respondents who constitute the 2.5 per cent fall, instead, said it was the 'poor performance' of the Pinarayi government that mattered the most.

This is an indication that most of the respondents did not view the threat of wildlife attacks as separate from the performance of the Pinarayi ministry. The death of 14-year-old Ananthu who was electrocuted by a poacher's live snare in Nilambur on June 7 could have intensified the disappointment with the Pinarayi government.

If in the first survey 47.5 per cent blamed the inaction of the LDF government for the persistent wildlife attacks, 12 days later more respondents (57.5 per cent) felt so. Those who blamed the Centre's reluctance to amend the Forest Conservation Act, 1972, a campaign theme of the LDF government, fell sharply, down to 27.5 per cent from 37.5 per cent.

But this did not indicate any increase in voter sympathy for the BJP candidate, Mohan George. On the last day for the withdrawal of nominations, 65 per cent of the respondents said that a Christian candidate would not increase the acceptability of the BJP in a constituency with over 10 per cent Christian votes. After the campaign ended, more voters felt so (67.5 per cent). Nonetheless, the percentage of respondents who felt that a Christian candidate could 'slightly improve' the BJP's chances bulged to 20 per cent from 17.5 per cent.

Further proof of the sharpening anti-government mood is provided by the voter perception of the LDF government's development record. In the first survey, 27.5 per cent said the Pinarayi government ushered in big ticket development. This time only 20 per cent held this view. Some of the respondents brought up the abandoned Nilambur bypass project as a symbol of the LDF's apathy.

However, the percentage of respondents who totally rejected the LDF claims of development showed a marginal dip from 60 per cent to 57.5 per cent. Perhaps, the respondents were being realistic. In the first survey, 5 per cent said that the LDF government had implemented "some" development projects. This time, the share of respondents who felt that there were indeed "some kind of development" under the LDF government rose to 15 per cent.

Yet another measure of the growing frustration with the incumbent government was the way respondents felt about the shoddy construction of the NH 66 stretch. Though the work is entirely the responsibility of the Centre (National Highway Authority of India), 40 per cent said the LDF government should also take a share of the blame. A week and a half ago, only 35 per cent felt this way.

If former MLA and rebel candidate P V Anvar has had a significant impact on voters, there is nothing in the Onmanorama survey to show for it.

He seems to have gained in image though. In the second survey, the percentage of respondents who felt that Anvar's performance as MLA was either good or average was 70 per cent. Twelve days before, it was only 60 per cent. Those who felt that he was a bad MLA had also dropped, from 30 per cent to 27.5 per cent.

At the same time, those who felt he was an 'excellent' MLA dropped steeply to 2.5 per cent from 10 per cent. His anti-Pinarayi rant, too, has not swayed voters. In the June 5 survey, 50 per cent said that Pinarayi's remarks linking Malappuram to gold smuggling and hawala transactions were deliberately made to insult the district, a charge that was first made and then sustained most aggressively by Anvar. After the campaign, the percentage who felt that Pinarayi was being wilfully malicious had come down to 47.5 per cent.

Also, a significant chunk of voters (62 per cent) felt that the Congress was right in closing the door on Anvar, a further sign that the voters feel that Anvar was unnecessarily heavy-handed with the Congress.

Like Anvar, Congress candidate Aryadan Shoukath, too, has not been able to improve his standing. After the campaign, 82.5 per cent of respondents rate him as 'excellent', 'good' or 'average' as Nilambur municipal chairman. In the first survey, it was 87 per cent.

More than any objective assessment of Shoukath's performance as municipal chairman, this could be the result of what pollsters call a 'comparative assessment' that plays in the mind of voters. In other words, Swaraj's acceptability as a candidate seems to have dimmed Shoukath's personality in the mind of voters.

However, on the whole, it looks like anti-incumbency will outsmart Swaraj's charm as a candidate.

Onmanorama's Nilambur bypoll survey was done in two parts. The first survey was done on June 5, the last date for the withdrawal of nomination. The second on June 17, the day the campaign ended. For both the surveys, Onmanorama reporters asked the same nine questions to 40 respondents, 10 in Nilambur municipality and 30 from the seven panchayats.
Read first survey analysis here: Strong anti-incumbency, NH buries development pitch, Anvar not in race