Onmanorama survey: Strong anti-incumbency, NH buries development pitch, Anvar not in race

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The first part of the bypoll survey conducted by Onmanorama in Nilambur on June 5, the last day for the withdrawal of nominations, revealed a strong anti-incumbency sentiment in the constituency.
Forty-five per cent of the voters surveyed picked the performance of the Pinarayi Vijayan government as the issue that will motivate them the most to cast their votes. But for a substantial chunk, it will be a vote of no-confidence. Seventy per cent of those who chose the LDF government's performance as the most decisive factor in the byelection said the performance was poor.
The issue that came next among the triggers for the voter was 'wildlife attacks'. Thirty-five per cent of those surveyed said recurring wildlife terror will be on top of their minds when they cast their votes on June 19. This should worry LDF candidate M Swaraj as nearly 50 per cent (47.5%) of those surveyed blamed the inaction of the LDF government for the persistent wildlife attacks in the area.

Nonetheless, 37.5 per cent heaped the blame on the centre, on the Narendra Modi government's reluctance to amend the Forest Conservation Act, 1972. One of the major bypoll themes of the LDF government is what Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan called the "timid provisions" in the Forest Conservation Act that stood in the way of quick and decisive action against destructive wild animals. The survey results show that a sizable section of the voters, even if not a majority, have found the LDF narrative compelling at the start of the campaign.
Yet, in the initial stages, the anti-incumbency feeling is palpable. The responses to the question on the LDF's development track record is a pointer. Sixty per cent of those surveyed said the Pinarayi government had not ushered in any major development like its leaders claim. Only 27.5 per cent said that the Pinarayi government had indeed unleashed a wave of development in Kerala. An insignificant two per cent said that the government did bring about development but not in a scale that can be considered commendable.

If the respondents felt that the LDF government's development claims were not on a sound footing, their perception can be traced to the collapse of the NH 66 at Kooriyad in Malappuram and a series of cracks detected later on various other NH stretches in North Kerala. Thirty-five per cent said the LDF government should also take the blame for the shoddy construction. Another 35 per cent said the National Highway Authority of India (NHAI) alone should take the blame.
Congress's K C Venugopal tried to rake up the issue but, unlike the NH mishap, Pinarayi's Malappuram comments made last year seems to have been buried under more recent events. Only 2.5 per cent of those surveyed felt Pinarayi's remarks, linking Malappuram to gold smuggling and hawala deals, was significant.

Even if at the moment it is not a major election issue, 50 per cent said that Pinarayi deliberately made these remarks to discredit Malappuram. Nonetheless, 45 per cent either did not think so or felt that the CM's remarks were misinterpreted. This is an indication that, at the start of the campaign, the voters are divided almost right down the middle on the issue.
The UDF, perhaps, might try hard in the days to come to intensify the anger against Pinarayi's supposed anti-Malappuram remarks.

However, the man who sounded the most infuriated by Pinarayi's remarks, P V Anvar, does not look like a force to reckon with at this stage. 67.5 per cent of those surveyed found his performance as MLA in the last nine years as either average or bad. 32.5 per cent felt he was either excellent or good.
Significantly, even those who rated Anvar's performance as 'excellent' felt that the Congress had done the right thing by not accepting his demands and keeping him out of the UDF. 62.5 per cent of the respondents said that the Congress was justified in closing the door on Anvar. This indicates a certain respect among voters for the tough, no-nonsense stand taken by the UDF with regard to Anvar. However, 30 per cent felt that Anvar should have either been included in the UDF or at least have been given another chance.

Another factor that seems to put the wind behind Aryadan Shoukath's sails is the voters' perception of him as Nilambur Municipality chairman. Fifty per cent said he was either excellent or good, and 37.5 per cent said he was average. In other words, nearly 90 per cent (87.5%) of the respondents felt Shoukath was a nice prospect, a response that does not tally with Anvar's dismal projection of the UDF candidate.
The respondents, too, seem to share BJP state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar's indifference to the bypoll. 67.5 per cent said even a Christian candidate (Mohan George) will not improve the BJP's chances in Nilambur. 12.5 per cent, however, felt that Mohan George could make a difference. Twenty per cent said he could make marginal gains for the BJP.
Onmanorama's Nilambur bypoll survey will be done in two parts. The first survey was done on June 5, the last date for the withdrawal of nomination. Onmanorama reporters asked nine questions to 40 respondents, 10 in Nilambur municipality and 30 from the seven panchayats. The second will be done on June 18, a day before polling on June 19. The second survey, which will ask the same questions to the same set of respondents, will try to record the changes in voter perception, if any, as a result of the election campaign.