The downturn is linked to speculation about bumper coffee crops in Vietnam and India, although experts believe the price fall is temporary.

The downturn is linked to speculation about bumper coffee crops in Vietnam and India, although experts believe the price fall is temporary.

The downturn is linked to speculation about bumper coffee crops in Vietnam and India, although experts believe the price fall is temporary.

The coffee harvest season in Wayanad has begun on a dull note amid concerns over a dip in prices. The current market price for Robusta raw beans in Wayanad stood at ₹185 per kg on Saturday, with major players, including exporters, staying away from the market.

In 2024, prices began rising even at the onset of harvest and continued their upward trend until June. During that period, prices of dry Robusta coffee beans crossed ₹290 per kg in March. However, the present price decline, which began in October, continues unabated. Prices of Arabica coffee remain relatively high at around ₹300 per kg, but the lion’s share of coffee cultivated in Wayanad is of the Robusta variety.

Market sources and experts say the present downturn is temporary and primarily driven by speculation that Vietnam will record a bumper crop this year and that India, too, will see good production.

Coffee Board Regional Joint Director (Kerala and Tamil Nadu) M Karuthamani told Onmanorama that prices are unlikely to fall further. “Global production is not significantly higher, and domestic production too is almost the same as last year, with only a slight increase,” he said.

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Last year, Robusta coffee production in Wayanad alone stood at 60,000 metric tonnes. “This year too, the crop looks good, as we received copious blossom showers during March–April along with sufficient back-up rains,” he added.

Wayanad has over 60,000 coffee farmers cultivating the crop across 67,459 hectares. Coffee growers’ organisations attribute the present price fall mainly to developments in Vietnam. Delayed harvesting there due to heavy rains in November, followed by improved climatic conditions and projections of higher output, have contributed to the decline, they said.

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Wayanad Coffee Growers Association director Prasanth Rajesh said that Vietnam’s production is the key factor behind the slump. “Vietnam grows nearly five times more Robusta coffee than India and is our biggest competitor,” he said. Vietnam’s production is estimated at around 30 million bags, while India produces about 6 million bags. “Any increase in Vietnam’s output directly affects Indian growers, especially since most farmers here cultivate Robusta,” he added.

However, Rajesh pointed out that despite the Coffee Board projecting a marginally higher crop this year, feedback from the field suggests production may be 5–10 per cent lower than in 2024. He attributed this to widespread blossoming in January last year due to untimely rains, followed by delayed back-up rains in March, which may have affected yields.

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Saju Chirakkarakuzhiyil, a farmer, said that the price fall would not last long. “Small and medium farmers with limited holdings will sell their produce by mid-January. Large plantation owners are likely to retain stocks in anticipation of better prices, as yields are lower in most farms,” he said.