Congress & IUML plan seat-swap in Ernakulam to up tally, workers don't feel good about it

Kochi: The party workers of the Congress and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) are getting uneasy over a proposed seat-swap in Ernakulam ahead of the assembly elections. The Congress plans to hand over its traditional Kochi seat to the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), while the IUML would surrender its Kalamassery stronghold to the Congress.

While this strategy is designed to reverse the front's 2021 losses in both seats and increase the UDF's tally to 11 out of 14 constituencies in Ernakulam, it has hit a wall of local dissent, internal power struggles, and shifting demographics. In 2021, the UDF won nine seats in the district. Sources within the IUML state leadership confirm that this Kochi-Kalamassery trade is the centerpiece of a broader UDF 'winnability study' aimed at reclaiming seats that have slipped away. Sources said that similar exchange talks are simmering over the Guruvayur-Pattambi and Tavanur-Thiruvambady constituencies.

The statistical motivation for the exchange is clear. In 2021, the IUML lost its bastion in Kalamassery to P Rajeev by over 15,000 votes, while the Congress saw Kochi fall to the LDF's K J Maxi for a second consecutive term. "Kalamassery is traditionally an IUML seat, but we faltered there in 2021. Meanwhile, Kochi, which includes the old Mattanchery base, retains a massive Muslim electorate where the League remains formidable," a senior IUML state leader told Onmanorama.

The UDF's theoretical blueprint looks like this. The Congress plans to field DCC President Mohammed Shiyas as a heavyweight challenger to P Rajeev. The belief is that Shiyas, backed by a unified UDF machinery, is the "ideal opponent" to wrest the seat.

The IUML would take over Kochi, fielding a candidate capable of replicating K J Maxi's success by consolidating Muslim votes while simultaneously pulling in the influential Latin Catholic community. However, the proposal faces a major roadblock in Kochi. The Latin Catholic community has long viewed the Kochi seat as its own, and local Congress workers are fiercely opposed to surrendering the seat to an ally.

To mitigate this, UDF strategists have floated a secondary swap by offering the Vypeen constituency to a Latin Catholic candidate. "Vypeen has a significant Latin Catholic population, and we hope that moving the community's representation there could solve the Kochi deadlock," a League source said. Yet, Ernakulam DCC sources remain cautious, stating only that "winnability is the ultimate factor" and nothing is finalised.

The 'Ebrahim Kunju Factor' and local resistance
While the state leadership mulls over the swap, local IUML workers in Kalamassery are pushing for the status quo. Their argument hinges on a potent mix of sympathy and a shifting narrative surrounding the late former minister and IUML leader V K Ebrahim Kunju.

Following Kunju's recent passing, a sympathy wave is sweeping the constituency. "Ebrahim Kunju's family maintains deep roots here and a close relationship with the Panakkad family. IUML can turn sympathy into votes," a local leader said.

Moreover, the narrative regarding the Palarivattom flyover scam is being rewritten on the ground. "Many locals now believe Kunju was "trapped" by subordinate officers in the PWD and he was unaware of the scam. This could work in favour of IUML," a leader said.

Local supporters argue that V E Abdul Gafoor, Kunju's son, who has been intensely active in the constituency for the last few years, is better positioned to win this time, riding on anti-incumbency and the sympathy factor of his father's death.

Sceptics within the League also warn that the "good old days" of the party in Mattanchery, which was a traditional fortress for them, are gone. The modern Kochi constituency now includes Kumbalangi and Chellanam panchayats, which are dominated by Latin Christian and Hindu voters.

"The League doesn't hold the same upper hand in the current Kochi map. If we move from Kalamassery, we might be trading a seat with a sympathy wave for a seat where the demographics have shifted against us," said an IUML leader

As negotiations continue, the UDF finds itself caught between the data of its "winnability study" and the raw emotions of its local cadres. While names like Henry Austin, the Congress councillor in Kochi Corporation who found success in the CPM-bastion of Vaduthala East, and Hibi Eden MP are being discussed for Kochi, and VE Abdul Gafoor remains a strong contender for Kalamassery, the internal dissent may yet force the UDF to drop the exchange plans and maintain the status quo.