CPM takes a gamble with former Kerala 'Rock Star' Health Minister Shailaja in Congress fort Peravoor, cadres sceptical

Kannur: The CPM's move to field its senior leader and former health minister K K Shailaja in Peravoor constituency in Kannur for the upcoming Kerala Assembly election has triggered intense political debate. Among the cadres, it raises a larger question: is the move a strategic push to reclaim a lost constituency or a risky gamble that could shape — or even end — the political future of one of the party’s most prominent leaders?

Once considered among the most popular faces of the CPM in Kerala, and even seen by some as a potential successor to Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, Shailaja’s shift from the party stronghold of Mattannur to the fiercely contested Peravoor constituency has sparked speculation both inside and outside the party.

While the CPM leadership maintains that the move is a calculated attempt by the Left Democratic Front (LDF) to wrest the seat from the United Democratic Front (UDF), critics and even some party sympathisers view it as a high-stakes test for the former health minister, whose political trajectory has seen both remarkable highs and recent setbacks.

Peravoor, currently held by Sunny Joseph, now the president of the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee(KPCC), has remained with the UDF for three consecutive terms since Shailaja last represented the constituency between 2006 and 2011. Her return to the seat comes at a time when her electoral performance will be under close watch, especially after her defeat in Vatakara Lok Sabha segment in LS election 2024.

Against this backdrop, the Peravoor contest is shaping up as more than just another electoral battle. It could well determine whether Shailaja reasserts her influence within Kerala politics or faces a decisive setback in her long political career.

Peravoor Assembly constituency in Kannur district has traditionally been considered a stronghold of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). Since the constituency was formed in 1977, UDF candidates have won eight out of the ten Assembly elections held here.

The Left Democratic Front (LDF) has managed a decisive victory only once, in 2006, when Shailaja contested from the seat and secured nearly 50 per cent of the vote share. That victory is often cited by LDF supporters as a reason for optimism if she contests from the constituency again.

However, in the subsequent 2011 Assembly election, Sunny Joseph defeated Shailaja by a margin of nearly 4,000 votes. Since then, Sunny Joseph has gone on to win two more consecutive terms from Peravoor and is widely expected to contest again if Shailaja enters the fray.

There have also been instances of closely fought contests in the constituency. In 1996 and 2021, UDF candidates won with relatively narrow margins of about 200 votes and around 3,400 votes, respectively. In the last Assembly election, the Congress retained the seat with a margin of roughly 3,172 votes. Notably, the constituency remained with the Congress even when the LDF secured a sweeping victory across the state.

The results of the recent local body elections also indicate a clear advantage for the UDF in the constituency, with the front winning six panchayats within the Assembly segment.

“There are concerted efforts within political circles to corner Shailaja politically. This was evident in the last Lok Sabha election when she suffered a significant defeat in Vadakara against Shafi Parambil,” said V S Anilkumar, a Left-leaning political observer based in Kannur. “It is uncertain whether Shailaja can win in a constituency like Peravoor this time. The situation is quite different now. Apart from a general trend favouring the UDF, there is also a visible consolidation among Christian communities across the state, which could be strongly reflected in a constituency like Peravoor where Christian voters play a decisive role,” he said.

Leaders of the Indian National Congress say they are confident that the United Democratic Front (UDF) will register a decisive victory in the constituency in the upcoming Assembly election.

“Unlike the previous Assembly election, there is a strong possibility of a record victory this time, especially since Sunny Joseph is now the president of the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC). Voters believe that he could secure a major position if the UDF comes to power. Because of that sentiment, we expect the victory margin to double this time,” said Martin George, president of the District Congress Committee, Kannur.

He also claimed that if the Left Democratic Front (LDF) fields Sakeer Hussain as its candidate, he might perform better than Shailaja in the constituency. “Shailaja may not pose a major challenge to Sunny Joseph in Peravoor this time,” he added.

The Kerala Independent Farmers Association (KIFA), which is believed to have a strong influence in the Peravoor constituency, is also likely to extend its support to the United Democratic Front (UDF) candidate, potentially making the contest more challenging for K. K. Shailaja.

Critics also point out the contrast in candidate selection, noting that while CPM state secretary M V Govindan’s wife P K Shyamala has been fielded by the CPM in the relatively safe Thaliparamba constituency, Shailaja has been shifted from the party stronghold of Mattannur to the far more uncertain electoral battleground of Peravoor.

Shailaja was first elected to the Kerala Legislative Assembly from Kuthuparamba in the 1996 Assembly election. She later won the Peravoor constituency in 2006, but lost the seat in the 2011 election. She made a strong comeback in 2016 by winning from Mattannur.

Serving as Health and Social Justice Minister from 2016 to 2021 in the LDF government led by Pinarayi Vijayan, Shailaja gained national and global attention for her leadership in handling major public health crises, including the 2018 Nipah virus outbreak and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Although she won the Mattannur seat again in the 2021 Assembly election with a record margin of over 60,000 votes, the CPM followed its internal policy of limiting ministers to two consecutive terms. As a result, she was not included in the second cabinet formed by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

For Shailaja, the contest in the upcoming assembly election, which is expected to be held in April, is more than a routine electoral fight; it is widely seen as a defining moment that could determine whether she re-establishes her influence within the CPM and state politics, or faces another major setback in her long political career.