Shafi-run Pisharody's campaign & BJP vote-collector Sobha Surendran eclipse hotelier Razack in Palakkad

Onmanorama pollmeter tracks 12 closely-fought constituencies across different phases of campaign: Nemom, Manjeshwar, Palakkad, Kunnathunad, Pala, Kottarakkara, Peravoor, Thripunithura, Ambalappuzha, Taliparamba, Payyanur and Nattika. This is the second part on Palakkad where Onmanorama captures emerging trends from ground-level feed. Read the first part here.

Palakkad: On the outskirts of Palakkad town, in Pirayiri, Shashi, who runs a small thattukada, offers a sharp snapshot of the political mood in the constituency. “Ramesh Pisharody may be new to politics, but he is already familiar to voters through television and cinema. Still, it feels like Shafi Parambil himself is contesting here. His coordination and presence are everywhere in the UDF campaign,” he says, comparing the energy to a previous by-election when Rahul Mamkootathil was in the fray.

Subramanian, sipping tea beside him, agrees. “Shafi’s strong backing could make Pisharody a winner. His identity as a member of the Pisharody community will also help him. As for the LDF, NMR Razack may not significantly increase the vote share this time. BJP is strong in municipal areas, but panchayats still largely vote against it. That’s the barrier the party needs to break,” he explains.

As campaigning enters its second phase, the contest in Palakkad is shaping into a tight fight between Sobha Surendran of the NDA and Ramesh Pisharody of the UDF. Sobha initially appeared to have an early advantage, but Pisharody is now actively engaging voters in his own style. His roadshows are drawing significant crowds, particularly women, who gather along roads and narrow village lanes to catch a glimpse of him and interact.

Sobha’s campaign received a boost following Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit. The massive turnout of tens of thousands at his rally at Kottamaidanam has significantly boosted the confidence of the BJP camp. The UDF is now expected to counter this upsurge with star campaigners, including Priyanka Gandhi, along with popular faces from the film industry.

However, the Congress campaign has been pushed onto the defensive after a sexual harassment complaint surfaced against local leader Prashob C Valsan, a municipal councillor. Though the party expelled him, both the NDA and the LDF have amplified the issue during the campaign. The controversy surfaced amid similar allegations linked to Rahul Mamkootathil, adding pressure on the UDF. During his visit to Palakkad, Modi also raised the issue, remarking that such incidents are concerning and urging caution, particularly for women. Pisharody has responded by stating that the accused must face strict action and justice should be ensured for the victims.

In Narakaparamba, near the border between the Mathur and Pirayiri panchayats, a group of locals, sharing an evening conversation, believe these controversies could influence the outcome. “Frequent complaints against Congress leaders may affect even their strongholds. It could benefit the Left candidate,” says Chandran. Ponnan and Thangaliuttikka are also confident that the LDF will increase its vote share in Mathur and Kannadi panchayats this time, and there is a chance for Razack in rural areas.

Meanwhile, in Palakkad town areas, there is visible momentum in favour of the BJP, with cadre energised after Modi’s visit and widespread campaigning across the town. “Unlike during the by-election, RSS is very active this time. They have a clear strategy to overcome the challenge of Congress gaining ground in panchayats,” says Suresh, a local man spending time with his family near Palakkad Fort.

However, Saheer, who describes himself as a supporter of Shafi Parambil, believes a section of BJP workers loyal to C Krishnakumar, a senior leader in Palakkad, are currently focused on the neighbouring Malampuzha constituency, where Krishnakumar is contesting. According to him, this diversion of cadre strength could impact the BJP’s prospects in Palakkad.

LDF candidate Razack remains active on the ground. Along with traditional Left votes, he may attract minority support from strong pockets like Pirayiri. He may also get the SDPI's support, which is crucial.

For now, Palakkad is witnessing a closely fought battle, with UDF and NDA locked in a contest where every vote could make a difference.