Sandeep Varier's entry makes Trikaripur interesting in all too familiar Kasaragod poll scene

Kasaragod: For the past 35 years, Kasaragod district’s five Assembly constituencies have followed a familiar pattern: two seats for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and three for the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF). Yet, despite the Congress leading the UDF, the district has not returned a Congress MLA since 1991. The Congress's last successful outing was in 1987, when it won in Udma and Kanhangad.

The UDF’s victories have consistently come through the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), which holds Manjeshwar and Kasaragod. On the other side, the LDF’s tally is anchored by the CPI in Kanhangad and the CPM in Udma and Trikaripur.

Trikaripur, bordering Kannur district, has a deep-rooted Left footprint. Before its formation in 1977, the region was part of Nileshwar, which elected E M S Namboodiripad, the first Communist Chief Minister, in 1957. In 1960, the Congress broke through, when C Kunhikrishnan Nair defeated Praja Socialist Party's Koran Olaikkapurakal by 173 votes.

But Nileshwar returned to the Left in 1967 and was retained in 1970; and since the formation of Trikaripur, the CPM has had an unbroken hold, electing leaders including Chief Minister E K Nayanar. The constituency has remained largely unchallenged for decades. This time, however, Trikaripur emerges as the lone variable in Kasaragod’s electoral matrix, with the Congress fielding Sandeep Varier, a combative former BJP spokesperson who took a Gandhian turn ahead of the 2024 Palakkad Assembly by-election and joined the party.

Yet, across the district, despite the familiar pitch of a “triangular contest”, the ground reality is that every seat is shaping up as a direct fight.

In Manjeshwar and Kasaragod, the contest is a straight face-off between the IUML and the BJP, the only constituencies in Kerala where this binary holds. In Kasaragod, the stakes are sharper, with the district presidents of the two parties taking on each other. The LDF, in both segments, trails well behind, having even forfeited its deposit in Kasaragod in the past.

In the remaining three constituencies, Kanhangad, Udma and Trikaripur, the fight is between the LDF and the Congress, with the BJP largely on the margins. The much-invoked third angle exists more in narrative than in numbers.

Trikaripur: A new variable in a settled turf
In earlier elections, the Congress has often faltered in candidate selection and has even given up the seat to its ally Kerala Congress (Joseph), which has little clout in the constituency. The result: The constituency solidified into a CPM stronghold.

This time, the script has acquired an unexpected twist. The entry of Sandeep Varier has injected a layer of unpredictability into what was widely seen as a comfortable ride for local boy V P P Mustafa, the CPM's district secretariat member and an equally good orator. Varier's presence has energised the UDF. The CPM camp has dismissed the buzz as driven by money and showmanship.

But in the local body election, the UDF managed a slender lead of around 3,000 votes over the LDF in the nine civic bodies that make up the constituency. That is a remarkable feat considering the LDF's sitting MLA and CPM district secretary M Rajagopal won by 26,137 votes in 2021. The tilt towards the UDF was first seen in the Lok Sabha election in 2024, when Congress's Rajmohan Unnithan got a lead of around 10,000 in the Trikaripur segment, which was a first.

The CPM still controls entrenched pockets such as Kayyur-Cheemeni and Pilicode panchayats, and enjoys considerable influence in large parts of Nileshwar municipality. For now, the Left remains ahead, but the contest is no longer routine.

Udma: A seat that slipped away from UDF
Udma tells a story of missed chances for the UDF. Since 1977, the UDF came close at intervals, with Congress leaders like N K Balakrishnan and K P Kunhikannan managing wins, and several losses decided by narrow margins.

Since 1991, the constituency has been with the CPM, with even Congress strongman K Sudhakaran biting the dust here in 2016 by 3,882 votes.

In 2021, C H Kunhambu increased the LDF's winning margin to 13,322 votes. Over five years, the affable MLA has consolidated his position through accessibility and outreach. The Congress, in contrast, has fielded K Neelakandan, a relatively low-profile face beyond party circles.

On paper, the arithmetic still offers the UDF a sliver of hope: Chemnad, the largest panchayat, remains a stronghold; Udma, Pallikkara, Pullur-Periya, Muliyar and Delampady are evenly poised; Kuttikol and Bedadka lean Left. But this time, the Congress managed to win two wards in Bedadka, where the Left had never lost a seat.

UDF leaders concede that decades of internal discord and weak candidate choices, rather than lack of votes, have kept the seat out of reach. For now, Kunhambu is widely expected to retain it comfortably.

Kasaragod: Consolidation after a slow start
Kallatra Mahin Haji, the IUML district president, is taking on BJP district president M L Ashwini in the Kasaragod Assembly segment. The UDF, after a wobbly start, appears to have steadied itself. Kallatra, who initially faced questions over electoral exposure, has since been backed by a fully mobilised grassroots network that has helped consolidate the base.

Ashwini, on the other hand, is running a spirited campaign, and the BJP retains a strong organisational presence. However, internal friction with sections aligned to the previous leadership could prove a handicap.

The LDF, with a vote share of under 20%, has fielded Shanavas Padhoor as an independent after its ally Indian National League (INL) failed to find a candidate. Kasaragod has long been favourable terrain for the IUML. Three-time MLA N A Nellikkunnu secured his highest winning margin — 12,901 votes — in his third term. The IUML’s vote share in the constituency hovers around 44%, maintaining a lead of roughly nine percentage points over the BJP.

Kanhangad: Walkover for CPI
Kanhangad remains the most predictable of the five. Except for a solitary Congress win in 1987, the seat has consistently backed the CPI since 1977. Ground feedback suggests little departure from that pattern this time as well.

The party has fielded its former district secretary, Govindan Pallikkappil, a squeaky clean grassroots leader; the Congress gave up the seat to its ally, Kerala Congress (Joseph), which has fielded Shaiji Ottappally, who is from Kaipuzha in Kottayam.

Manjeshwar: Close fight, familiar edge
In Manjeshwar, the contest is tight and layered. Former BJP state president K Surendran is in the fray for the fourth time. A seasoned campaigner, he came within 89 votes and 745 votes of victory in the last two elections, making him the BJP’s strongest bet here.

Yet, the UDF’s A K M Ashraf holds a structural advantage. In a constituency with a sizable Muslim electorate, consolidation against the BJP remains a decisive factor. Recent local body trends also suggest that the BJP’s growth curve may have plateaued, and LDF lost its clout. LDF's K R Jayananda is receding into the rear-view mirror. The race is competitive, but the edge remains with the UDF.

Where the district stands
Before nominations, the broad assessment was straightforward: Kanhangad and Trikaripur firmly with the LDF, Kasaragod with the UDF, Udma as a potential battleground, and Manjeshwar leaning towards the UDF in a close fight.

Candidate selection, however, has shifted the texture in subtle but important ways. Trikaripur has acquired an element of uncertainty, Udma has slipped further from contention for the UDF, and Manjeshwar remains competitive but slightly tilted.