Iran war may push 45 million people into acute hunger globally

• The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that the total number of people around the world facing acute levels of hunger could reach record numbers in 2026 if the escalation in the Middle East continues to destabilise the world’s economy. 

• New analysis by WFP estimates that almost 45 million more people could fall into acute food insecurity or worse (known as IPC3+) if the conflict does not end by June, and if oil prices remain above $100 a barrel. 

• These would add to the 318 million people around the world who are already food insecure.

Energy and food markets are tightly correlated

• When the Ukraine war began in 2022, triggering a cost of living crisis, global hunger reached record levels with 349 million people impacted. 

• WFP’s latest projections indicate that the world is at risk of facing a similar situation in the months ahead if the Middle East conflict continues. 

• During the 2022 period, food prices were fast to spike but slow to come down. 

• This meant that vulnerable families already struggling with hunger were priced out of staple food items almost overnight, and for extended periods of time.

• While in 2026 the conflict involves a global energy hub and not a breadbasket region. The potential impact is similar because energy and food markets are tightly correlated. 

• The supply chains may be on the brink of the most severe disruption since COVID-19 and the Ukraine war.

• The virtual shipping standstill in the Strait of Hormuz and mounting risks to Red Sea maritime traffic are already increasing energy, fuel, and fertilizer costs, deepening hunger beyond the Middle East. 

• The conflict reverberates far and wide, and the world’s most vulnerable people are the ones who will be most exposed to its ripple effects.

Which are the most vulnerable regions?

• According to WFP’s analysis, countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia are the most vulnerable due to a reliance on food and fuel imports. 

• Projections indicate an increase of 21 per cent in food-insecure people for West and Central Africa and 17 per cent for East and Southern Africa. An increase of 24 per cent is forecast for Asia.

• Sudan, for example, imports around 80 per cent of its wheat — a higher price for this staple will push more families into hunger. 

• In Somalia, a country in the midst of severe drought, the price of some essential commodities has risen by at least 20 per cent since the conflict began. 

• Both are countries with high levels of food insecurity that have also experienced famine in recent years. 

• This crisis comes amid severe funding shortfalls for WFP which has forced significant prioritisation of programmes across all continents, ultimately meaning that people in need of assistance are being left behind. 

• Further increases in food insecurity that are not matched by increased resources could spell catastrophe for some of the world’s most vulnerable countries that are already at risk of famine.

• Another major concern is related to the disruption of global fertilizer markets just as sub-Saharan Africa heads into a planting season. 

• A quarter of the world’s fertilizer supply comes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is now at a virtual standstill.