By welcoming the BJP and refusing to give even one seat to the Left, West Bengal has virtually rewritten its political scenario with the Lok Sabha poll results.
The eastern state but did not reject the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and gave some breathing space to the Congress.
Though Trinamool won 22 seats, the BJP reached second with 18 seats.
However, the BJP appears to be closer to its goal of ousting Trinamool from West Bengal by 2021. Earlier, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had claimed that 40 of the Trinamool MLAs were waiting to switch over to the BJP after the polls. Suspended Trinamool MLA, Subhrangshu Roy, who would soon join the BJP is seen as the first to start the exodus.
Community first
Corruption, infighting in party and Trinamool chief Mamata Banerjee’s way of functioning are seen as some of the reasons that forced people to vote against the TMC. However, the Muslim community still sided with Trinamool as is proven by the 22 constituencies where the party won. Most of these constituencies have 40-60 per cent of Muslim voters.
Though Mamata had taken precautionary steps to thwart attempts on splitting the votes on community-based politics, these did not yield results. Trinamool lost out on several constituencies with high Hindu population.
However, it is not possible to say that the community factor alone decided the results. Compared to the assembly polls, Trinamool's vote share has only marginally come down.
Compared to 2014, Trinamool's vote share increased in Lok Sabha constituencies where they won. It proves that Trinamool was able to win over minority and anti-Modi voters.
Left, Congress voters to BJP?
However, some would contend that Left and Congress voters had backed the BJP. Figures too back such statements.
In Alipurduar, 2014 numbers: Trinamool - 29.46% vote, BJP - 27.72%, RSP - 27.30%, Congress – 9.49%. Whereas in 2019: Trinamool - 36.72%, BJP - 54.4%, RSP - 3.91%, Congress – 1.99%.
The BJP was able to portray itself as a force capable of taking on Mamata, and win over votes from the Left and the Congress. The Sangh Parivar activists also worked hard to reverse the BJP's chances in the state. The BJP was able to register victories in tribal areas and most of the northern parts of the state.
However, any attack on the Bengal's cultural sentiments saw the state rooting as one.
Statues of social reformer Ishwar Chandra Vidyasagar were vandalised just before the last phase of polling. Trinamool won all the nine seats.
The way ahead
Trinamool workers are confident that they have two years to mend their ways before the 2021 assembly polls. Mamata has already started course-corrective measures. The Bengal CM said she was ready to take responsibility of the poll debacle and resign as chief minister. However, the TMC Leadership rejected this. Mamata had alleged that BJP won votes by communal politics. "I have doubts regarding the BJP's massive victory. Some foreign forces are behind this. The party created an emergency-like situation in the state to win the polls," she said. Trinamool also suspended MLA Subhrangshu Roy after he said the TMC should accept the defeat after the LS polls and praised his father Mukul Roy’s organisational skills. Mukul Roy, one of the founders of TMC, had switched over to the BJP in 2017.
The BJP plans to give more representations from Bengal in the central ministry.
However, there is not much to say about Congress in Bengal. And the Left is nowhere in the picture.
