New Delhi: March, April and May are "likely to be warmer than normal" over north-west, west, central and parts of south India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its summer forecast.
In Kerala, it is likely to be warmer than normal by 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius.
Above normal heat wave conditions are also likely in the core heat wave (HW) zone during the season (March-May), it said.
"There is about 43 per cent probability of maximum temperatures in the core HW zone during March to May 2020 to be above normal," the IMD said.
The core HW zone covers Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and Telangana and parts of Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
The season's average maximum temperature is likely to be warmer than normal by 1 degree Celsius over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, west Rajasthan and Arunachal Pradesh.
Rainfall shortage
This year, from January 1 to February 29, Kerala had a 57 per cent shortage in rainfall than normal. In Idukki district, which has the most number of dams in the state, the rainfall shortage is 84 per cent. The amount of ultraviolet (UV) rays received in parts of Kerala has also considerably increased due to which more heat is experienced in the state. Though it is normal in areas close to the equator to have a UV index of 10 during peak summers. In central and southern Kerala, the UV index has already risen to 11.
As this can cause serious ailments the health department and disaster management authority have issued advisories asking people not to venture out during afternoon when the Sun's rays are at its harshest.
Other states
The forecast indicates that the average temperatures from March to May are likely to be warmer than normal by 0.5 degree Celsius over northwest, west and central India and parts of south India.
Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, west Uttar Pradesh, east Rajasthan, east and west Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, north interior and coastal Karnataka, Rayalaseema in Andhra Pradesh will also experience warmer than normal temperatures by 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius.
Rest of the country is likely to experience near normal maximum temperatures, the IMD said.
Since 2016, the IMD has been issuing seasonal forecast outlooks over the country for both hot and cold weather seasons based on predictions from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) Model.
The seasonal temperature forecast outlook for March to May 2020 has been prepared using MMCFS simulations based on the initial conditions of February.
