Analysis | 6 issues that could sway voter behaviour across Kerala

Local body elections to 23,576 wards across Kerala are certain to throw up a befuddling variety of results that not even the sharpest analytical brain can sum up into a sensible political trend.

This is because, especially at the lower tiers like the grama and block panchayats, the candidates matter more than their party. There have been innumerable instances in the past of BJP supporters voting for Muslim League candidates and vice versa if the candidates happen to be neighbours or friends or teachers or members of the same self-help group.

Larger political issues influence voters at the higher tiers, where local bodies acquire the size of mini-states; district panchayats (14), municipalities (87), and corporations (6).

Distill the results in these tiers and one could get a reasonable sense of what Kerala thinks on issues that is almost certain to persist at least till the 2026 Assembly elections that will take place just three or four months from now. This is also why the dominant trend of the local body polls is perceived as a sign of things to come.

Onmanorama looks at six such dominant political developments that could sway voter choices across Kerala, at least in the larger local bodies.

Sabarimala gold theft
After the LDF rout in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, following what was widely seen as the CPM-led government's eagerness to dismantle a traditional religious practice in Sabarimala, faith has been placed on a sacred pedestal. So the loot of gold from Sabarimala under the LDF government's watch could be potentially devastating for the LDF.

The Congress considers the Sabarimala theft as the 'brahmastra' it could use against the LDF. Senior Congress leader Ramesh Chennithala has alleged that the theft has links to international antique smugglers.

Already, two prominent CPM men -- former Travancore Devaswom Board presidents A Padmakumar and N Vasu -- are in jail.

The CPM has attempted to turn these arrests into a virtue, saying that these, more than anything else, only confirmed that the LDF government will not stand in the way of a free and fair investigation.

If at all there is an angry exodus of traditional Left voters from the LDF fold, like in 2019, it is not clear where the deserters will end up. The BJP, too, is waiting with open arms.   

Congress MLA as serial predator
|Palakkad MLA Rahul Mamkoottathil's alleged serial predatory behaviour and the Congress party's response to it sent out contradictory messages about the party.

On the one hand, it gave the impression that the party is a divided house. At least when the charges against Mamkoottathil first engulfed public consciousness, senior Congress leaders had spoken in different voices.

This reinforced the general perception that the Congress is a fragile coalition of self-centred leaders than a party with a common cause.

Almost simultaneously, this seemingly unstable party also demonstrated firm resolve by expelling Mamkoottathil from the primary membership of the party.

The Congress used this to paint a contrast with the CPM, which it says has never possessed the moral steel to act against powerful sexual predators within its ranks.

If there is voter disillusionment with the Congress on the issue, it will be BJP's gain.

Rumoured CPM-BJP deal
The sly manner in which Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and Education Minister V Sivankutty inked the PM-SHRI pact with the BJP-led Centre seemed to validate a creeping suspicion -- which began with the unprecedented disruption of Thrissur Pooram in 2024 and strengthened with the reports of a senior police officer's secret meetings with RSS and BJP leaders -- that the CPM has a secret understanding with the BJP.

The CPI's surprise rebellion was a humiliation, forcing the CM to meekly back out of the pact with the Centre. If the suspicion persists, the CPM's secular claims will probably sound hollow to the voter. 

Vanishing poverty magic
Declaration of 'extreme poverty'-free Kerala and generous welfare announcements were the LDF government's strategy to mask the PM-SHRI humiliation.

Hike in the monthly social welfare pension from ₹1,600 to ₹2,000 for 62 lakh beneficiaries, monthly transfer of ₹1,000 to women, including transwoman, between the ages of 35 and 60 (Sthree Suraksha Pension), monthly stipend of ₹1,000 for youth between the ages of 18 and 30 (Connect-to-Work Scholarship) were the highlights of the welfare announcements.

These could justifiably be branded election sops but not the 'extreme poverty'-free declaration. Lifting 64,006 families out of extreme poverty was a commendable achievement done over four years with earnest local participation. Neither the UDF nor the BJP could convincingly undermine this feat.

Now, after the Lok Sabha rebuke, pensions are distributed on time. Welfare will be the most convincing number in the LDF's campaign concert.

High-speed development
Ever since Pinarayi Vijayan came to power in 2016, he has meticulously set about fashioning the CPM into a modern pro-industry, pro-investment party after sweeping aside the shards of computers and harvesting machines comrades had once smashed with disdain.

His government ushered in Kerala Infrastructure Investment Fund Board (KIIFB), perhaps the most inventive model ever conceived to finance public growth, and which by now has sanctioned infrastructure projects work over ₹90,000 crore. There is also the constant mention of big ticket projects like hill and coastal highways, petrochemical parks, metro rails and even illusory ones like the Thiruvananthapuram–Kasaragod Semi High Speed Rail Corridor. 

This image of a 'development man in a hurry' developed severe cracks when the service road along the National Highway stretch at Kooriyad in Malappuram collapsed in May this year. And now, right at the fag end of the campaign, in a shocking repeat of Kooriyad, the service road along the NH stretch at Mylakkad near Kottiyam, Kollam, cracked open.

This thoughtless hurry to construct concrete highways over wetlands and paddy fields has disillusioned environmentally-sensitive Left voters. On top of it, these cracks have once again let out whispers of an unholy CPM-BJP nexus.

Bogeyman called Jamaat-e-Islami
It looks like the CPM wants the UDF's political understanding with Jamaat-e-Islami Hind's political wing, Welfare Party of India (WPI), to be the defining affair of this election. In the last days of the campaign, Pinarayi Vijayan has repeatedly brought up the issue.

There are two objectives. One, the CPM hopes badmouthing Jamaat-e-Islami can warm the hearts of Left-leaning Hindus who have adopted as their own the BJP's pet hate of Muslim appeasement. There is also the belief that Syro Malabar Christians, terrified by the spectre of 'love jihad', will also be charmed. Two, by being equally outspoken against the RSS and Jamaat-e-Islami, the CPM believes it can lay claim to a spunky form of secularism unlike the Congress variant that seems beholden to everyone.

Problem is, since the CPM is using Jamaat-e-Islami as a surrogate for Muslims in general, the party could end up encouraging Islamophobia. Already such a charge exists against the CPM after it had done nothing to restrain SNDP Yogam general secretary Vellapally Natesan from making venomous anti-Muslim utterances.

In the long run, there will be no political gain for the UDF either. Its open alliance with an admittedly religion-based party like the WPI will in no way enhance its secular credentials. This could then be BJP's gain.