Analysis | Did Pinarayi rule sink LDF’s good job for 5 years in Kochi Corporation?

Kochi: The United Democratic Front (UDF) has stormed back to power in the Kochi Corporation with a thunderous mandate, reclaiming its traditional stronghold and dismantling the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF). In a historic resurgence that mirrors their best-ever performance from 2010, the UDF secured 47 seats, including an independent candidate, sailing well past the simple majority mark of 39. This decisive victory ends the fractured verdict of 2020 and leaves the LDF, which managed to secure only 22 seats, staring at a humiliation worse than their 2010 low of 24 seats.

The counting day began with high drama. In the initial hour of counting, the LDF appeared poised for a second consecutive term, racing ahead with leads in nearly double the number of divisions compared to the UDF. However, the momentum shifted dramatically as the day progressed. The UDF turned the tide division by division, erasing the Left’s early advantage to seal a landslide. During the campaign, anti-incumbency was not a dominant narrative within the corporation, a factor that had boosted the LDF’s confidence.

The LDF had entered the fray, banking heavily on a “developmental agenda”, projecting achievements such as the Water Metro, the Brahmapuram waste treatment plant, the Thuruthy flat complex, and renovated walkways and parks. Even perennial issues such as waterlogging during the monsoon did not figure prominently, as the situation had improved in recent years. Yet, these projected achievements, trumpeted even in Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s speeches, failed to resonate with voters.

Incumbent Mayor and CPM leader M Anilkumar openly admitted the result was a complete blindside. “We expected 32-34 seats easily. It seems the anti-government sentiment across Kerala has affected our chances in Kochi too, but we never expected such a big defeat,” Anilkumar stated, acknowledging that they must now study the factors that led to this rout.

The front strongly highlighted the sitting mayor’s popularity and showcased a range of development initiatives undertaken over the past five years, including the Water Metro project, the Brahmapuram waste treatment plant, walkway renovations, and improvements to several parks. These achievements were repeatedly underlined by LDF leaders, including Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, in their campaign speeches.

Despite projecting governance and development as its core strengths, the LDF was unable to overcome the Corporation’s traditional leaning towards the UDF, ultimately failing to retain power in Kochi.

Rebels, turncoats, and failed strategies
The election was preceded by unprecedented chaos in the UDF camp, featuring 19 rebels and high-profile defections. The LDF had pinned its hopes on these rebels splitting the UDF votes, but that strategy backfired spectacularly. Of the 19 rebels, none won except Bastin Babu in the Chullickal division. If Babu returns to the party fold as expected, the UDF tally will hit the historic 48 mark. Conversely, voters showed zero tolerance for defectors. Sunitha Dixon, who jumped from the UDF to the BJP, finished a distant third behind CPM’s Beena Divakaran and UDF’s Jain Gray.

Similarly, Congress rebel Malini Kurup, who was touted to diminish UDF’s chances, finished third in Girinagar. In a significant flip, VP Chandran, a former CPM councillor, switched sides and won this time as a UDF-backed Independent.

Despite aggressive posturing and claims of a “double-digit” breakthrough, the BJP managed to add just one seat to its 2020 tally, finishing with 6 seats. Their NDA allies, including the BDJS, drew a blank.

The entry of Kitex Group-backed Twenty20 failed to make any electoral impact in the Kochi Corporation polls. Although the party contested in 56 divisions, it did not manage to win a single seat. While the LDF had expected Twenty20 to significantly erode the UDF’s vote base, the results indicate that this did not happen to any notable extent. In most wards where Twenty20 fielded candidates, they trailed far behind the major fronts.

The victory was not without its own sting for the UDF. In a twist of irony, the first result declared saw their Opposition leader Antony Kureethara lose the Island North division by a thin margin of 45 votes to BJP’s T Padmakumari.

On the other side, the LDF’s potential mayoral candidate, Deepa Varma, lost her seat in Edappally. Aji Francis, who was projected as another LDF mayoral candidate, lost from Karanakkodam by 11 votes.

Furthermore, the LDF’s campaign accusation that the UDF had formed an "unholy nexus" with the BJP in four divisions -- Elamakkara South, Kaloor North, Kunnumpuram, and Ponnurunni East -- was debunked by the results, which saw the two fronts splitting these seats evenly. Elamakkara South and Kaloor North went to the UDF, the other two were secured by the NDA.

With the Mayor’s post reserved for women this term, the UDF now faces a "happy problem." All three of their heavyweights -- Deepthi Mary Varghese, VK Minimol, and Shiny Mathew -- have won their seats. While the party maintains that the parliamentary party meeting will select the nominee, managing the conflicting claims of these strong leaders will be the first test for the incoming council.

Summarising the verdict, Hibi Eden, MP, described the win as a clear referendum on the state government. “The verdict is a true reflection of the visible anti-government wave that has swept Kerala. Even in divisions we lost, the margins were slim. Our candidate selection and coordinated efforts paid off,” he added.