NDA made a mess of Thripunithura, now UDF set to gain

Onmanorama pollmeter tracks 12 closely-fought constituencies across different phases of campaign: Nemom, Manjeshwar, Palakkad, Kunnathunad, Pala, Kottarakkara, Peravoor, Thripunithura, Ambalappuzha, Taliparamba, Payyanur and Nattika. This is the final part on Thripunithura, where Onmanorama captures emerging trends from ground-level feed. Click here to read the first and second parts here.

Kochi: In the high-voltage assembly polls, the Thripunithura constituency may be witnessing a plot twist that few political pundits saw coming. For weeks, the UDF has loudly alleged an unholy “deal” between the NDA and the LDF, a strategic understanding designed to ensure a Left victory by fielding a weak candidate to split the anti-incumbency vote. However, as the dust settles on the final day of the campaign, the irony is stark. The NDA’s poor decision-making and questionable candidate choice may have inadvertently “dealt” the LDF a losing hand, tilting the scales in favour of the UDF’s Deepak Joy.

In what is considered an ‘A-Class’ seat for the BJP, where they currently hold power in the Thripunithura Municipality, the decision to cede the segment to its newest ally, Twenty20, and field actress Anjali Nair seems to have backfired. Far from consolidating the Hindu vote to help the LDF by weakening the Congress, the move has triggered a drift of neutral voters and disgruntled BJP sympathisers toward the UDF.

The identity crisis: Anjali PV vs Anjali Nair
In the final leg of the campaign, the NDA suffered another setback. Anjali Nair’s last-minute legal battle to change her name on the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) from her actual name, “Anjali PV”, to her screen name “Anjali Nair”, ended in failure. Despite a High Court directive for a hearing, the request was rejected due to “procedural delay and administrative impossibility,” as postal and home voting had already commenced.

For a campaign built almost entirely on celebrity recognition rather than political track record, this is a severe blow. 

“Voters look for the name they’ve seen on posters and are familiar with. If they see 'Anjali PV', there will still be confusion even though there is no other Anjali. In a seat where K Babu won by just 992 votes in 2021, every confused voter is a lost opportunity for the NDA,” said Pramod Nair, a staff at a restaurant in Thripunithura.

Viral gaffes and disgruntled cadres
While Anjali Nair’s social media presence has been high-octane, it has largely been for the wrong reasons. Videos of the candidate promising to “introduce English medium in government schools”, a feature that has existed in Kerala for decades, have gone viral, inviting a deluge of trolls and memes.

“Ignorance cannot always be bliss. A candidate who does not know the basic facts about the state’s education sector makes her more vulnerable to the criticism that the BJP should have fielded a political candidate. Even BJP workers are disappointed, and this might favour the UDF,” said Silpa Rajendran, a BJP supporter in Thripunithura.

The grassroots resentment is palpable. Despite the NDA using the BJP’s lotus symbol prominently alongside Twenty20’s “Jackfruit”, the ideological synergy is missing. Anjali’s attempt to bridge the gap by claiming “a jackfruit looks like lotus petals when opened” in a viral video became another instant meme, further alienating the serious BJP cadre who saw this election as their best chance to capture a seat in the absence of veteran K Babu.

The ‘Babu factor’ and shift in arithmetic
Early in the campaign, the LDF’s KN Unnikrishnan held a distinct advantage, fuelled by his “proven winner” status from Vypin, where he defeated Deepak, and a headstart after the election notification. However, the UDF has since successfully closed that gap. The “outsider” tag initially attached to Deepak Joy has faded, replaced by the formidable shadow of Babu.

Babu, who turned Thripunithura into a personal fortress for 35 years, has been anchoring Deepak’s campaign with clinical precision. In areas like Udayamperoor and Maradu, the Babu legacy is being successfully transferred to Deepak Joy.

The UDF's “deal” allegation was based on the premise that a “weak” NDA candidate would keep BJP voters away from the UDF. But the “ground pulse” suggests the opposite.

With both Unnikrishnan and Deepak Joy hailing from the Ezhava community, the community vote is split. In this deadlock, the votes from dissatisfied BJP sympathisers become the deciding factor.

While the LDF holds eight out of ten Kochi Corporation divisions, the UDF rules Kumbalam, Udayamperoor panchayats and Maradu municipality. The UDF’s aggressive ground push in the final week, coupled with the NDA’s internal friction, has significantly changed the pulse.

Conservative Hindu voters who traditionally might have leaned toward the BJP are reportedly wary of the Twenty20 alliance. “BJP should have fielded a candidate under its own banner. It was a golden opportunity with Babu not in the fray. The current situation clearly favours the UDF,” a BJP councillor told Onmanorama on condition of anonymity.

As the constituency moves toward the polling booths, the LDF's early lead has been neutralised by a UDF resurgence and an NDA implosion. If the alleged “deal” between the LDF and NDA did exist, it was a tactical miscalculation. By fielding a candidate seen as “weak”, the NDA hasn't just failed to grow; it has arguably pushed its core supporters toward the UDF as a protest vote against the Left.

So the NDA’s poor decisions in this A-Class seat may not have dealt a blow to the UDF, but rather provided the very ladder Deepak Joy needed to gain the edge.
 Click here to read the first and second parts here.