Onmanorama pollmeter tracks 12 closely-fought constituencies across different phases of campaign: Nemom, Manjeshwar, Palakkad, Kunnathunad, Pala, Kottarakkara, Peravoor, Thripunithura, Ambalappuzha, Taliparamba, Payyanur and Nattika. This is the second part on Thripunithura where Onmanorama captures emerging trends from ground-level feed. Read the first part here.

Kochi: On a humid afternoon, Susheela rowed her country boat across the Vembanad Lake from Mukkathumuri island to Udayamperoor. Life on the small island, she said, has long been defined by scarcity, especially water. But one intervention changed that.

“For years, we struggled without basic facilities. It was K Babu who used ₹24 lakh from his MLA fund to bring water to our island. He was always accessible. Since he is backing Deepak Joy now, that support matters to us,” she told Onmanorama.

Her words capture a shift underway in Thripunithura. What began as an election where the LDF appeared to hold a slight early advantage is now evolving into a tighter, more fluid contest. The UDF’s Deepak Joy is steadily closing the gap with LDF candidate KN Unnikrishnan, turning the race into a neck-and-neck battle as campaigning enters its final stretch.

In the immediate aftermath of candidate announcements, the LDF had seized the initiative. Unnikrishnan, a sitting MLA from Vypeen, was declared early and quickly activated the party’s robust cadre network. In contrast, Deepak Joy’s candidature came in the Congress’s final list, leaving the UDF initially on the back foot.

But that early deficit is now being eroded. The Congress machinery has since recalibrated, working aggressively on the ground to compensate for lost time. Crucially, veteran leader and former MLA K Babu, whose personal influence defined the constituency for three decades, is now fully anchoring Deepak’s campaign.

Initially seen as an “outsider”, Deepak has begun overcoming that perception, largely due to Babu’s constant presence and endorsement. Voters who were once uncertain are increasingly willing to transfer their loyalty.

Thampi, an auto-rickshaw driver in Udayamperoor, reflects a common sentiment. “We wanted Babu to contest again, but he stepped aside due to health reasons. Even so, many here feel his candidate deserves support,” he said.

NDA factor adds intrigue, but cracks may aid UDF
The NDA’s role in Thripunithura is turning out to be one of the most intriguing subplots of this election, one that could ultimately tilt the balance, not necessarily in its own favour, but in determining who wins between the LDF and the UDF.

The decision to field actress Anjali Nair under the Twenty20 banner, instead of a BJP candidate in what is considered an “A-class” seat, initially created visible unease within the party’s local ranks. 

That early discontent translated into a sluggish campaign start. Several BJP workers were initially reluctant to actively participate, raising questions about whether the NDA could hold on to its core vote bank.

“Had the BJP fielded a strong political candidate, things could have been very different. Twenty20 doesn’t have much influence beyond a few pockets here. Those votes may now shift towards Deepak,” says Damodaran, a BJP supporter and a tea shop owner in Puthiyakavu, reflecting a sentiment heard across sections of voters.

Yet, Anjali’s campaign has not been passive. In fact, it has evolved into a high-visibility effort that blends grassroots outreach with aggressive social media presence.

Despite being labelled a “weak candidate” by rivals, she has been campaigning extensively on the ground, walking through neighbourhoods, interacting directly with voters, and braving both the summer heat and sharp political criticism. Her identity as a familiar face from cinema has helped her draw crowds and initiate conversations with ease.

Importantly, there has been a conscious attempt to project her less as a Twenty20 candidate and more as a BJP-backed face. Across campaign venues, BJP flags and lotus symbols are more prominently visible than Twenty20 insignia, something NDA insiders describe as a deliberate strategy to reassure traditional BJP voters. 

Her campaign has also gained traction online. Videos of her interactions with voters, her resilience in the face of trolling, and her attempts to connect with different communities are being widely circulated on social media, adding a layer of visibility that few first-time candidates enjoy. 

However, the critical question remains whether this visibility can translate into votes. “People recognise her instantly and are happy to talk to her. But whether that converts into actual votes is doubtful. If she had contested directly as a BJP candidate, she might have secured stronger backing, especially within the municipality,” says Johnson, a voter from Karingachira.

Adding to her challenges is a technical but potentially significant issue of her name appearing as “Anjali PV”, her official name as per records, on ballot papers and EVMs, instead of the widely recognised “Anjali Nair.” She has approached the Kerala High Court seeking a correction, arguing that the discrepancy could confuse voters. But with voting processes already underway in stages, any last-minute change appears uncertain. In a tightly contested constituency, even such small factors can have outsized consequences.

For the UDF, these dynamics offer a window of opportunity. A section of BJP sympathisers, dissatisfied with the candidate choice or confused by campaign signals, may either abstain or drift towards Deepak Joy. Unlike earlier assumptions that NDA votes would primarily cut into the UDF’s base, there is now a growing perception that a weakened NDA could actually benefit the Congress.

At the same time, if Anjali succeeds in consolidating BJP votes despite the odds, it could still indirectly aid the LDF by splitting anti-Left votes.

In essence, the NDA’s campaign in Thripunithura is no longer just about its own performance. It has become a variable that could decisively shape the final outcome, either by holding its ground or by inadvertently redrawing the electoral arithmetic in favour of the UDF. 

Narrative battles and campaign flashpoints
The UDF has also attempted to aggressively shape the political narrative. One of its key campaign lines questions Unnikrishnan’s shift from Vypeen to Thripunithura, portraying it as a move driven by fear of anti-incumbency. The LDF, however, counters that the shift reflects party confidence in his ability to reclaim a crucial seat.

Meanwhile, a controversy over the removal of Deepak’s campaign hoarding in Palluruthy, allegedly by police, has been used by the UDF to allege bias. The police denied involvement, stating it may have been an election squad action, but the UDF alleged that the ‘squad’ did not remove the LDF hoarding that was put up near Deepak’s hoarding. 

Another flashpoint has been a debate over Deepak Joy’s identity, with the UDF accusing rivals of spreading misinformation about his religion. In response, Deepak publicly reaffirmed his Ezhava roots, visiting a Sree Narayana temple with his family and performing rituals such as ‘Thulabharam.’

He dismissed the controversy as politically motivated, while Unnikrishnan denied any role in such narratives, asserting he sees no need for personal attacks against Deepak, who, according to him, is a ‘weak’ candidate whom he had defeated in 2021.

Community equations and micro-factors
With a significant Ezhava population playing a decisive role, both major fronts have fielded candidates from the community. At the same time, both campaigns are carefully navigating religious sensitivities, especially in light of past electoral setbacks linked to faith-related controversies.

Unnikrishnan, for instance, has been visibly participating in temple visits and religious engagements, projecting cultural alignment.

However, the LDF faces additional micro-level challenges, including the presence of a namesake candidate, also named Unnikrishnan KN, which could potentially split votes benefiting Deepak. The party has responded by actively educating voters using model ballots that have the CPM’s hammer-sickle-star as the symbol of ‘real’ Unnikrishnan.

As things stand, the LDF’s early advantage has narrowed significantly. The UDF’s renewed ground push, combined with K Babu’s influence and uncertainties within the NDA, has injected fresh momentum into Deepak Joy’s campaign.