Bhopal: The ruling Congress and main Opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are engaged in a keen tussle to win six tribal-dominated reserved constituencies in Madhya Pradesh.
The BJP had won all these seats in 2014.
Scheduled Tribes (STs) account for 21 per cent of the population in the state, compared with the national average of 9 per cent.
Apart from six of the 29 Lok Sabha seats, 47 Assembly segments in the House of 230 members are also reserved for STs.
Traditionally, the Congress held sway over the tribal belt.
Its influence began to wane and the the dimension of these constituencies changed in 2009.
The Congress won four seats, while BJP captured Khargone and Betul Lok Sabha seats.
In 2013 assembly elections, the equation changed further.
The BJP secured 31 of the 47 assembly seats and made inroads in tribal-dominated constituencies, home to nearly 80 per cent of the tribal population.
Proactive Sangh
A key reason for the BJP's surging influence was the proactive grassroots work by the socio-religious off-shoot organisations of the Sangh Parivar. Periodically, the Sangh organised massive Hindu Mahasangams (large gatherings) in tribal belts, including a grand 'mahasangam' organised in February 2011 in Mandla district.
Coined as "Maa Narmada Samajik Kumbh", the event was attended by a galaxy of Sangh stalwarts including Mohan Bhagwat, the chief of Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS), Sadhvi Ritambara and Nand Kumar Sai, a tribal leader and Rajya Sabha MP from Chhattisgarh.
Clearly, a dramatic turnaround in the BJP’s prospect became visible in 2014 general election results, when the BJP swept all these six seats, thanks to the dedicated efforts of the RSS across the State.
However, in a by election in 2015, following the death of BJP MP Dilip Singh Bhuriya, the Congress wrested the Ratlam Lok Sabha seat, which it had never lost before 2014.
Tribal leader and former Union Minister of State Kantilal Bhuriya won the seat by a margin of over 88,000 votes to snatch the seat from the BJP.
Assertion of tribal identity
In the last two decades, the tribal population had been attempting to make their presence felt in the political arena.
The assertion of tribal identity happened with the formation of Gondwana Gantantra Party (GGP) nearly 16 years ago.
In the last three Assembly elections, GGP became influential among Gond voters.
Gonds have the highest population among tribals and are influential.
In Malwa region, where Gonds do not have such a clout, the Bhil tribal leadership began to assert itself, with the formation of Jai Adivasi Yuwa Shakti (JAYS).
This outfit gave the Congress and the BJP some anxious moments ahead of assembly polls.
Later, JAYS candidates contested on Congress tickets and their en mass and tactical voting influenced results in Barwani, Jhabua, Alirazpur and Dhar districts.
JAYS founder and doctor-turned-politician Heeralal Alawa was elected as a legislator.
JAYS is planning to contest in the ensuing Lok Sabha elections. This could be a dampener for the ruling Congress, which seeks to make gains in the state.
"We are planning to field independent candidates from four seats, in case, if we are not able to get into coalition with any party," Alawa said.
Some recent events could threaten the BJP’s prospects in these constituencies as well as elsewhere.
The controversy over the Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe (Prevention of Atrocities Act) and the differing stances of BJP leaders on the issue have created a sense of confusion among tribal voters and upper-caste voters.
Tribal voters seem to be dissatisfied with the BJP government’s handling of atrocities against the side-lined communities.
The BJP’s core upper-caste vote bank is of the view the government is adopting a soft stance towards tribal and Dalits by refusing to dilute the Atrocities Act.
In the 2018 Assembly elections, this carefully planned and executed campaign marred the BJP's prospects in Madhya Pradesh.
The Congress, which won only two out of 29 lok sabha seats in 2014, made gains in 11 parliamentary constituencies, according to the 2018 assembly election results.
Among the constituencies where Congress gained over the BJP are Morena, Bhind, Gwalior, Tikamgarh, Dewas, Rajgarh, Shahdol, Mandla, Ratlam, Dhar and Betul.
Of the 11 seats, five - Shahdol, Mandla, Ratlam, Dhar and Betul - are reserved seats.
The tribal population's influence is also significant in Khargone reserved seat.
In a way to keep the tribal votes in the party’s fold, the Congress is reaching out with the slogan "ek teer ek kaman, saare adivasi ek saman (on bow, one arrow, all tribals are equal)".
Recently, state Chief Minister Kamal Nath urged tribal leaders to be more vocal in raising their issues. He was attending a convention of tribal leaders held in Bhopal.
"At various events, I say that Adivasis have learnt how to ride a cycle and a motorcycle, but they don't know how to raise voice for their issues," he pointed out.
I always say this to the Adivasis, till the time you raise your voice nothing will happen," he pointed out.
Lok Sabha elections will be held in Madhya Pradesh in four phases - April 29, May 6, May 12 and May 19.
