Exit polls predict no major loss for BJP, minimal gains for Congress-NCP in Maharashtra

Exit polls predict no major loss for BJP, minimal gains for Cong-NCP in Maharashtra
(From left) Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray, BJP national president Amit Shah and Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis.
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If exit polls are to be believed, drought conditions, rural distress, rising unemployment and a faltering economy shall have little or no impact on the outcome of the Lok Sabha polls in Maharashtra. This should be good news for the ruling BJP, led by the Gujarati duo of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah.

With 48 seats, Maharashtra is only second to Uttar Pradesh’s 80 seats in the Lok Sabha, results to which will be out, along with the other states and Union territories, on May 23. Considering the setback BJP is likely to suffer in its northern strongholds, the party should draw satisfaction from its performance in this western Indian state.

The Times Now-VMR poll tracker has predicted that the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance will get 38 seats – a loss of four seats as compared to what it got in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress in alliance with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) of Sharad Pawar and other secular parties is likely to win a mere 10 seats.

Narendra Modi
Narendra Modi

It could be worse for the Cong-NCP if the India Today-Axis’ prediction comes true. With a mere eight seats, the self-proclaimed secular parties will be conceding 40 seats to their saffron rivals. The ABP-Nelson has returned marginally better figures for them with 13 seats, way behind the BJP-Sena’s score of 34; one seat going to Swabhimani Paksha of Raju Shetti who switched over to the Cong-NCP alliance before the 2019 polls.

What could surprise many political observers would be the lack of a visible impact on the poll predictions of well-televised factors like Raj Thackeray’s thunderous public meetings against the Modi-Shah duo and the surprise entry of Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) floated by Prakash Ambedkar-Asaddudin Owaisi, which was expected to make its presence felt with a couple of wins.

Except for the time-tested Raju Shetti factor, the farmers leader, who is likely to retain his pocket borough of Hatkangale in the sugar bowl of south Maharashtra, none of the other parties, not even the CPM in Dindori constituency of north Maharashtra, stand a chance to win, according to the pollsters.

Sharad Pawar
Sharad Pawar

This also means the Kisan Long March in March 2018, the silent Maratha Morchas in 2016, the issue of Dhangar (shepherd) community’s long pending demand for Scheduled Tribe (ST) status and equivalent benefits had come to a naught, when it came to making an impact on the electoral outcomes in the state.

The biggest setback could be for the Dalits of Maharashtra, who had rallied behind Prakash Ambedkar after the Bhima-Koregaon violence in 2018. With the VBA drawing a blank, there’s little hope for Owaisi’s AIMIM, which has two sitting MLAs in the state Legislature, and was hoping for an entry in the Parliament from Aurangabad.

The man currently laughing all the way to the ‘electoral’ bank could be chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, at least till the pollsters hold the fort until May 23. The 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra are expected to play a crucial role in electing the next government in Delhi and this could mean his political stars could rise further.

The likely outcome for the Lok Sabha elections, if they hold true to the predictions, should also make Fadnavis and the saffron alliance he leads upbeat about their prospects at the forthcoming Assembly polls scheduled later this year, most probably around October.

The Congress-NCP should have a lot to worry, unless they defy the pollsters and win in double digits. The septuagenarian Sharad Pawar’s energetic campaign across the state drew a lot of media attention, while his unlikely partnership with Raj Thackeray was expected to return rich electoral dividends.

An electoral setback for this ‘fox and hound’ partnership could derail their collective as well as individual ambitions or plans for the Assembly battle ahead. For Raj and his outfit, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), the task of making a comeback will become all the more uphill even as his cousin and main rival, Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray, retains his position in the ruling NDA.

For the state’s denizens, the pollsters' outcome fails to satisfy their heightened curiosity vis-à-vis the outcome in their respective constituency. Will sitting MP Supriya Sule be defeated in the Pawars’ traditional stronghold of Baramati? Will Parth, her nephew and former deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar’s son wrest the Maval seat from the BJP? And what happens to Congress’ Dalit face and former Union minister and Chief Minister Sushilkumar Shinde in Solapur, where he’s facing a stiff challenge from Prakash Ambedkar.

Another close contest that would be keenly watched would be Nagpur in Vidarbha, where Union minister Nitin Gadkari is locked in a contest with former BJP MP Nana Patole, who is contesting on the Congress ticket.

But the ultimate price for failing to perform in Maharashtra would be paid by the Congress and its leader Rahul Gandhi. For reasons best known to its Delhi coterie, the Gandhis chose to completely ignore Maharashtra – rumours had it that Rahul would be contesting the Nanded seat, which was among the only two it managed to win in the state at the 2014 hustings.

Somehow, the Congress campaign never took off in this crucial state – considering the number of seats and its geographical and political centrality in India. It failed to foresee the dark clouds gathering in Ahmednagar – where the son of Leader of Opposition Radhakrishna Vikhe-Patil joined the BJP and fought the Lok Sabha polls against his forefathers’ party – nor managed to come out of it.

The outcome of the national polls, if they turn out as predicted by the pollsters, could spell the death knell for the grand old party in Maharashtra, where it held sway for decades.