Why Australian exit poll a big hit in India

_{Disbelief, awe and indifference. The many eyes that studied the exit poll survey released by major news channels on May 19 betrayed all kinds of emotions. According to these surveys, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is set to relish a second term in office.}

_{While an NDA victory was not unprecedented, the Opposition had hoped that their numbers would dwindle enough for various parties to stitch together a coalition and wrest power.}

_{It seemed possible until a week ago. The recent exit polls, however, told a different story. Not only is NDA set to retain a significant majority but they are also likely to wrest territories that it had lost to Congress in Assembly elections after 2014. The aggregate of exit polls leaves BJP-led NDA with a staggering 302 of the 543 seats.}

_{Buoyed by this survey, the saffron gang took to social media to post variants of “I told you so”, only to be met by an unseen enemy – the Australian exit polls.}

_{Baffling as it was to even political pundits, such is the doggedness of the Indian political machinery that those dejected by the exit polls in India were looking as far as Australia in an effort to undermine it.}

_{Australian exit polls}

_{Last weekend, Australian pollsters were left red-faced after results showed that Scott Morrison will be in power again. Their exit polls had predicted a clear defeat for Morrison. Congress MP Shashi Tharoor cited this in a Twitter post to dismiss the exit polls in India.}

_{“I believe the exit polls are all wrong. In Australia last weekend, 56 different exit polls proved wrong. In India, many people don’t tell pollsters the truth fearing they might be from the Government. Will wait till 23rd for the real results”, Tharoor wrote.}

_{Tharoor faces an uphill battle in his constituency Thiruvananthapuram, where all three fronts are involved in a tough contest. NDA has fielded their best candidate here looking to establish dominance and open their account in what is a politically-charged Kerala after Sabarimala row. Manorama News survey predicted a photo finish though NDA's Kummanam Rajasekharan has a slight edge.}

_{Taking a cue from Tharoor, many flocked to social media armed with this new detail to erode the exit polls, its methodology and even debate on the folly of democracy in India.}

_{Australian exit and opinion polls ended up being the most talked about subject on Twitter in India.}

_{Skirmishes that ensued online also gave hints of how politics will be waged in the future – with the alchemic combination of anonymity, data, and the right number of followers to silence opposing voices.}

_{Australian opinion polls have a long history of getting the numbers wrong. Opinion polls are very different from exit polls.}

_{Exit polls}

_{An exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they come out of polling stations. The results of the exit polls are compiled after asking voters whom they actually voted for. An opinion poll, on the other hand, is a compilation of the popular perception of how the votes will be cast.}

_{Exit polls have therefore been mostly accurate, but there are also instances when its predictions did not match actual result. Notable examples are the Brexit poll in 2016 and the US Presidential election later that year.}

_{In India, for 2004 and 2009 elections, the average of all tallies of exit polls greatly exaggerated the BJP-led NDA's results, and in 2014, underestimated its tally.}

_{India is an anomaly}

_{That's not all. There are other reasons to not rely on exit polls too much.}

_{Political parties here are an extension of who you are – your identity, your caste. One need only look at the ongoing political strifes in Uttar Pradesh – the parties that exist there are those that beckon one caste over the other.}

_{There's an unequal distribution of social and political power which, as Tharoor mentioned in his tweet, prevent people from telling posters the truth fearing that the details would seep into the hands of the wrong party.}

_{Unseen gains}

_{Exit polls, however, make for good television. Which is why for the last two days they have been the sole focus of most news channels. Everything else has taken a backseat. “The number of people who cover exit polls now makes up for a larger sample size than the survey itself,” quips Sanjeev Sanyal.}

_{That's not to say that exit polls don't matter. It does. In ways that you won't expect. Benchmark Sensex zoomed over 1,422 points and the NSE Nifty surged 421 points after exit polls showed that the Narendra Modi-led NDA is returning to power with a thumping majority. The Indian Rupee also appreciated by 64 paise to 69.59 against the US dollar on May 20.}

_Battle-ready

_{Unlike in 2014, there was not a definite Modi-wave to speak of. There was not a wave at all. It was the most hostile Lok Sabha Election in India's recent history. All parties stepped out in battle armour with the intention to win, even if it meant siding with old rivals.}

_{The exit polls then indicating an upsurge for Narendra Modi baffled many. Most opposition leaders were quick to rubbish the polls. Congress president Rahul Gandhi took to Twitter to accuse the Election Commission of favouring Modi.}

_{“From Electoral Bonds & EVMs to manipulating the election schedule, NaMo TV, “Modi’s Army” & now the drama in Kedarnath; the Election Commission’s capitulation before Mr Modi & his gang is obvious to all Indians. The EC used to be feared & respected. Not anymore,” Gandhi wrote.}

_{Chandrababu Naidu who had been meeting with rival party leaders in order to form a non-BJP govt was confident that his TDP will be able to form a party in Andhra Pradesh.}

_{“Time and again exit polls have failed to catch the People's pulse. Exit polls have proved to be incorrect and far from ground reality in many instances. While undoubtedly TDP govt will be formed in AP, we are confident that non-BJP parties will form a non-BJP govt at the centre.” wrote Naidu.}

_{Mamata Banerjee was of the opinion that the exit polls were a front to manipulate the electronic voting machines (EVMs).}

_{“I don't trust Exit poll gossip. The game plan is to manipulate or replace thousands of EVMs through his gossip. I appeal to all Opposition parties to be united, strong and bold. We will fight this battle together,” the Trinamool Congress chief tweeted. Exit polls predict that TMC is set to keep 26 of 42 seats and BJP will move to double digits at 14.}

_{National Conference chief Omar Abdullah's tweet was perhaps the most sober of the lot. One of the most vocal critics of Prime minister Narendra Modi, Omar was hesitant to dismiss the exit polls. He knows better than anyone that in India's complex political narrative, elections are a dubious affair and that anything is possible.}