Pala: On September 23, Pala will vote to elect a legislator other than K M Mani for the first time since the constituency was formed in 1967.
There has never been any doubt over the outcome of the assembly polls in Pala till the 2016 Assembly polls -- That is as long as Mani was in fray.
Even in 2016, when Mani was entangled in the bar bribery scam, Pala stood by him albeit with a slender majority of 4,703 votes.
The Pala 23 bypoll has been necessitated by the demise of Kerala Congress chairman Mani on April 9 due to age-related ailments. Sans Mani, a master strategist, the poll picture in Pala looks a bit different this time.
People say the fight is no more one-sided, though the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) frowns upon the claim, calling it a Left propaganda.
The BJP increased its vote share four-fold in the 2016 polls and is now working to make further inroads.
Divided house
An election after Mani's death should have been a walkover for the Kerala Congress (M) had the party stood united. The KC (M) is a divided house now with factions loyal to Mani's son Jose K Mani and veteran leader P J Joseph vying for control.
The Congress, the major constituent of the UDF, had a tough time bringing the rival leaders together for a poll rally where Joseph was booed by Jose's supporters. Joseph has since then been staying away from electioneering, though the UDF leaders still maintain that the front is united. UDF candidate Jose Tom, a surprise pick by the Jose K Mani camp, on Wednesday met Joseph at the latter's Thodupuzha home seeking support.
Joseph said he was happy about the candidate's visit. Jose-faction leaders and even political observers, however, don't count Joseph as a crucial factor in Pala. They say Joseph does not have any influence in K M Mani's fiefdom.
More than Joseph, it's the infighting within the Jose-faction that worries the UDF now.
A section of local leaders, who pledge loyalty to Jose K Mani, are not exactly pleased with Jose Tom's candidature.
Though local leaders who also fancied a party ticket are visibly active on the campaign front, the UDF fears undercurrents are in play.
Jose Tom's candidature was sealed after it became clear that Jose K Mani's wife Nisha Jose would not be in fray.
Apart from the Joseph faction, a section within the first family of Pala was also opposed to fielding Nisha in Pala.
Jose Tom is believed to be a confidant of Nisha. Jose K Mani calls him “a finding of K M Mani”. However, the people of Pala say he does not have Mani's stature and charisma.
Congress' burden
With the KC(M) remaining a divided house, it has become the Congress' responsibility to ensure the front's victory in Pala.
The party has even appointed monitors in all the booths to ensure that its activists are actively engaged in the campaign.
A young Congress leader admitted to Onmanorama that it was a tough fight this time and the outcome was unpredictable. Senior Congress leaders however say they are not worried at all.
“We have taken the bypoll as a challenge. We have succeeded in making it a political fight,” KPCC general secretary Salim told Onmanorama amid the campaigning.
He said the Congress has also succeeded in ironing out the differences between the rival camps in KC(M).
The Congress can't afford to lose Pala because its result could have an impact on the remaining five bypolls in the state. The CPM-led LDF, smarting from a drubbing in the Lok Sabha polls, is also working overtime in Pala for the same reason.
Time on Kappan's 'clock'?
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader Mani C Kappan is testing his luck for the fourth time in Pala on LDF ticket.
Kappan, who belongs to an influential family in Pala, sees Jose Tom as not even an opponent when compared to the stalwart called Mani.
“Rubber prices are already down. After the election, prices of pineapple will also fall,” a sarcastic Kappan told Onmanorama referring to his opponent's election symbol.
Jose Tom was allotted pineapple as symbol after Kerala Congress working chairman P J Joseph refused to allot him the KC(M)'s official symbol – two leaves. Kappan's symbol is clock.
Lack of development is the major poll plank in Pala, Kappan says.
“Mani represented the constituency for 54 years. Had he launched one venture every year, we would have had 54 projects in Pala by now,” he said.
The LDF is banking on Kappan's familial roots and his professional facets as a volleyball player and film-producer-director to break the KC(M)'s clout in Pala.
“This is the best chance we have,” a local CPM leader said.
Like the Congress, the CPM has also brought all their senior leaders to campaign in Pala. That Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan will camp in the constituency for three days makes it evident that the CPM senses a chance to wrest Pala.
A silent campaign inciting a sympathy wave in favour of Kappan is also on across the assembly segment.
Kappan lost three times and deserves a chance this time is the crust of the campaign.
Political observers also cite the support Kappan has from some rich families in the constituency as a factor in favour of him.
LDF is also highlighting the fact that Kappan could gradually bring down Mani's winning margin in all the three polls he contested.
Saffron dreams
It's notable that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance could increase its votes to 24,821 in 2016 from 6,359 in 2011. BJP has again fielded young leader N Hari. Though BJP does not have a chance to win the polls, the votes they gather could actually impact the prospects of other parties'.
Pala is considered a Christian-majority seat though it has sizeable chunk of Hindu voters.
Their stance would be crucial this time especially in the wake of the LDF government's adamant stance to implement the Supreme Court verdict allowing women of child-bearing age to enter the Sabarimala temple. The BJP and the Congress have already said that Sabarimala is an issue in Pala bypoll.
