In the beginning, only the loss mattered. When the byelection was declared, the Congress wanted the mood to sustain. Sheathed in the anguished tone of the bereaved, it made what can only be called an undemocratic request.
It asked the CPM to relinquish the fight for Puthuppally out of respect for Oommen Chandy. The death of the former Chief Minister, no matter the void it created, is not the death of democracy. The appeal was, rightfully, turned down.
A democratic contest came alive, but around the memory of Oommen Chandy. Gradually, like in any healthy poll, the Congress veteran became just one of the many factors that will influence voters.
Yet another aspect was also clear. The smiling generous image of Chandy will be the standard against which most of these vote-influencing issues will be measured. For any of these issues to work against the Congress candidate, it has to trounce the voter's nostalgia for Chandy. Even his perceived failures will be tested against the man's popular image.
Here, Onmanorama lists the five issues that will predominantly play on the minds of voters when they cast their vote on September 5.
Death of Oommen Chandy
If the Puthuppally byelection has a leitmotif, it is the death of Oommen Chandy.
The spontaneous outpouring of grief in the wake of his death seems, at least in the immediate future, to drown any resentment a voter harbours against Chandy.
Onmanorama had met Kunjumon, a dairy farmer in Manarcadu and a staunch CPM supporter, who spoke about the day a year ago when Chandy came to his neighbourhood, to meet the parents who had lost their child.
"The house could not be reached by car. So sir had to walk for about 30 metres. He was unwell at that time and I saw him shuffle towards the house with two men holding both his hands. There was no need for him to come, yet he came," Kunjumon said and added: "I have never voted for him. But this time I feel at least his son should get my vote."
Puthuppally's under-development
It was a CPM political masterstroke to replace sentiments with hard facts.
The party brought Chandy's work as an MLA into sharp focus. It held up the narrow thoroughfares, unpaved panchayat roads, absence of drinking water facilities, primitive health centres and insufficient school buildings as examples of inefficiency.
The CPM dictated the terms of the campaign, and the Congress had to frantically rework its strategy to suit the development debate. The Left strategy worked. There seems to be an overwhelming consensus in Puthuppally that Chandy had fallen short on this count.
The initial Congress defence was almost laughably weak, even factually incorrect. Later, it positioned the former Chief Minister as the champion of Kerala's development.
But the damage was done. This is what Iype, the former sexton of Manarcadu St Mary's Jacobite Cathedral told Onmanorama: "Any sensible person will vote for people who give us development. After the CPM came to power in the panchayats, they upgraded schools and hospitals," he said, and added: "Earlier, we had voted for Oommen Chandy. Now that he is gone, we are under no obligation to vote for a family member of his. We will go with those who push for development."
Silence around corruption
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's stubborn silence on the sensational findings of the Income Tax Interim Settlement Board against his daughter Veena Vijayan has perplexed even resolute CPM supporters.
Many voters Onmanorama talked to in various parts of Puthuppally said the charges were serious and would influence their choice.
"We did not believe what Swapna Suresh said. But the latest allegation that his daughter had taken monthly pay from a shady businessman doing nothing feels credible. Pinarayi's silence has cemented my belief," said Pylee John who runs a small provision store at Vettathukavala.
In addition, the Congress also ensures that voters are repeatedly reminded of some of the earlier corruption charges. The grant of the AI camera project to a close relative of the Chief Minister; the arbitrary cost escalation of the K-FON project; the purchase of PPE kits and gloves at higher rates during COVID; and the winding up of the vigilance probe against M Sivasankar in the Life Mission case.
Since the opposition plans to keep the corruption charges forever alive, the Puthuppally verdict is critical for the CPM. If it loses by a huge margin, say above 35,000 votes, the Chief Minister and the party would be forced to come up with a more credible defence than merely dismissing these charges as a "right-wing conspiracy".
If, on the other hand, the CPM wins or loses only by a small margin, like less than 15,000, it will be easy for the Chief Minister to shoo away troubling questions.
Jacobite factor
In the last leg of the campaign, the Jacobite Church has come out openly in favour of the CPM candidate.
But, unlike in 2021 when the Church favoured Jaick C Thomas right from the start, the delay was caused by the upswell of anger among the faithful against the Pinarayi Vijayan government for not going ahead with the Church Bill.
This time, there are two reasons why ordinary Jacobites could turn against Jaick. One, they feel betrayed after the government abandoned the Church Bill. The Kerala Church (Properties and Institutions) Bill was presented as a way to get back the churches the Jacobite faction had lost to the Orthodox Church after the 2017 Supreme Court verdict.
Two, Jaick's perceived aloofness from the Manarcadu Jacobite Church. Messages in Jacobite WhatsApp groups suggest that the community considers Jaick's decision to keep the Church out of his marriage ceremony in 2019 an insult to the community.
The Church's spiritual leaders, however, want the faithful to remain grateful to the Pinarayi government for getting the Cemetery Act passed. After the Orthodox faction set the terms for the burial of Jacobite bodies, the Act allowed Jacobites to bury their dead in cemeteries where their ancestors rest.
State of the economy
The shortage of essential commodities in Supplyco could not have come at a worse time for the CPM candidate. It was both Onam and byelection. This was also the year when free Onam kits were limited to just 'yellow' card holders, the poorest of the poor. Not even the BPL or pink card holders were given free kits this time, which the Congress cited as a sign of severe economic distress.
It was by invoking the plight of the rubber farmer, a highly emotive issue in Puthuppally, that the Chief Minister countered this. He said the suffering of the rubber farmers was the result of the Congress-led UPA government's decision to ink the ASEAN trade pact.
However, the CPM lament for rubber farmers can boomerang. It can bring back memories of Oommen Chandy's generosity. In 2014, Chandy had granted Rs 130 for a kilo of rubber when the market price had fallen under Rs 80. A farmer gained over Rs 50 a kg.
Nearly a decade later, the LDF government offers Rs 170 a kg at a time when the market price is Rs 160; a gain of just Rs 10.
