Though the Kerala Congress (Mani) party has been effectively split, the United Democratic Front (UDF) still hopes that there are chances of reconciliation between its two halves. Even if that does not happen, the UDF leadership believes that both factions would continue to be part of the fold. However, no move has been made to consider these two as separate allies. Efforts on mediation would continue as the crisis has unfolded ahead of half a dozen assembly bypolls in Kerala.
A key partner in the UDF, the KC(M) split into two after a section of leaders in the party elected Jose K Mani, son of former chief K M Mani whose death led to a tussle over the leadership, as the chairman during a state committee meet on Sunday.
As the Kerala Assembly session is on, the split is sure to create a friction in the House. The contention over which is the official faction might be taken up before the Election Commission or Assembly speaker. Other issues, including disqualification of the MLAs, might also come up.
The UDF leadership is of the opinion that the crisis has happened at an inopportune time and wasunnecessary. The Congress-led front does not plan to back anyone in particular in both the factions.
The UDF had advised that both factions should be ready for compromise and work towards resolving the issue.
Senior Congress leaders Oommen Chandy, Ramesh Chennithala, Mullappally Ramachandran, and IUML leader P K Kunhalikutty held talks with both the factions. When the group led by Jose K Mani called the state committee meet on Sunday, the UDF leadership had urged both the factions to avoid a split.
However, both the factions were more interested in putting forth their arguments. Even after the split, this continued.
"We are hoping that the party unified by K M Mani would not be split in his absence. Reconciliatory efforts are going on," opposition leader Ramesh Chennithala told Manorama.
If the split is formalised...
The Congress leadership does not believe that both the groups would leave the UDF, even if the KC(M) is split officially. P J Joseph, who leads one of the factions, is unlikely to make a move to join the Left Democratic Front (LDF) even though he had made been with the Left earlier. Jose K Mani and the UDF are on good terms. Jose K Mani became an MP after the Congress gifted him the Rajya Sabha seat, which had created a huge uproar within the party. If both the factions ask the UDF to boycott the other, the opposition front would find itself in a spot. With the Pala bypoll around the corner, the UDF would seek a ceasefire between the two fronts. Both the UDF and the KC(M) see it as a prestige battle and have to retain the seat, which Mani had held on to for more than five decades.
Legal battle
The dispute now would be on which would be the official faction. This has already reached the Kerala Assembly speaker and the Election Commission. The temporary leadership post given to P J Joseph in the Assembly might also be questioned by Jose K Mani's faction. His faction would send in a letter to the Election Commission stating that Jose K Mani is the party chairman. P J Joseph's faction had earlier sent a letter to the Election Commission stating that he is the party chairman.
The Election Commission's decision on which is the official faction would be crucial to the MLAs of the other group. Otherwise both factions should reach a consensus that they would stay in the UDF and that the dispute would not reach the Assembly and the speaker.
What will happen next
Even when Joseph says that the party has been split, the Mani faction plans to play it smart. Leaders said that they were not for a split and that they were still ready to go together.
They also said they would inform the Election Commission about the chairman being elected and seek its approval. P J Joseph would not be moved from the working chairman's post. However, Joy Abraham would be removed as the general secretary, Mani faction said.
As per the chairman's discretion, a trusted member would be given the responsibility of the general secretary.
A new member would also be picked to be the vice-chairman, a post earlier held by Jose K Mani. The parliamentary party meet would be called to pick the leader. If the Joseph faction approaches the court, then Mani group too would follow the legal course.
Meanwhile, Joseph faction is mulling action against those leaders who took part in the state committee meet that elected Jose K Mani as the party chairman.
The group would also question the legal validity of Jose K Mani's election as the chairman both in court and before the Election Commission. The faction plans to hold talks with the legal experts over this.
The leaders in Joseph group are also mulling action against two people's representatives who took part in Sunday's meet. Joseph faction is of the opinion that since the returning officer was not present during the Sunday's meet in Kottayam, it cannot be considered valid. Also, the person who gave notice for the meet was not the state general secretary.
Anti-defection law
However, Jose K Mani's election as the party chairman is unlikely to have an immediate impact in the Assembly. Of the five MLAs, both factions have two MLAs each and the fifth MLA is neutral. If the MLAs take a stand against their party within the assembly or outside, or violates the party’s whip, action as per the Anti-Defection Law would be taken. Any ally leader or MLA can file a complain to the speaker about the member leaving the party. The speaker should then send a notice to the member concerned within a week. If there is a dispute over party's name and symbol, it is for the Election Commission to take a decision.
The Left's gain
Meanwhile, the CPM leadership is currently on a wait-and-watch mode. However, it might use the dispute to weaken the UDF. It is unlikely that one of the factions would switch over to the CPM-led LDF, considering the huge debacle it had to suffer in the recent Lok Sabha polls.
The CPM is predicting that one of the factions would sever ties with the UDF. Even if both the factions remain in the UDF after the split, it would only escalate the problems.
Earlier, while the LDF was attempting to woo K M Mani into the Left front by ignoring ally CPI's opposition, the KCM supremo had made a hasty return to the UDF. Therefore, the CPM is unlikely to take any quick decision that might backfire.